Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary

Weekly Crop Commentary

Oct 18, 2019

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Lou Baughman - Region 1 Grain Merchant

Grain markets are mixed this morning. The export report was a day late because of the holi-day Monday. Corn had very disappointing export numbers again this week, as demand con-tinues to suffer. Wheat sales came in at the middle of the traded expectations, and beans were on the high end of the expectations.

China has said they will increase their purchasing of US farm products. That’s good news to hear but traders will need to see the boats getting loaded and set to sail before fully believ-ing it.

The weather looks like it will open the opportunity to get harvest in full swing for the week-end with a minor setback Monday then back at it midweek. Check with your local elevators for weekend hours.

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Steve Bricher - Region 3 Grain Merchant

Another week of harvest is in the books. The harvest in my area is moving along rapidly. With yields reduced from last year’s record numbers it make for short lines at the elevator. If the weather holds most of harvest will be completed in 2 to 3 weeks in Champaign County

The markets have stayed steady this week as we are waiting on more harvest to happen out west; so we can see the extent of the weather damage from snow and the frost.

The farmer seems content today to put his crop away and see what happens in the future, as many think the crop is not as good across the country as many believe.
 

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Wes Bahan - Region 4 Grain Merchant 

Wes’s comments are not available today so I’d like to use his space to encourage you to check out our new App. The Heritage Cooperative App allows you access to real time scale tickets, contracts and cash bids at your convenience. The app is ready for download to your mobile device now from the App and Play stores. Downloading the app gives you convenient access to futures bids and cash bids for each of our grain elevators any time you wish. You no longer need to wait for a text message to arrive.

If you are a current customer with Heritage Cooperative, after downloading the app, you can login with your cell phone number and view your scale tickets and contract balances in real time as tickets are applied. The App also allows your branch to push important notifications out to you. To successfully log in, you’re cell phone number needs to be in your account records. If you experience difficulty with logging in, please contact us to verify the phone information in your account or with any other questions you may have.
 

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Ralph Wince - Region 5 Grain Merchandiser

Good Afternoon, not a lot of new news out this week for the markets to chew on. We continue to see corn & beans stay with in a tight trading range this week. No real changes in the China story this week. Harvest con-tinues to inch along. We had a pretty good start weather wise Mon & Tue but we had some rain settle in on Wed & early Thur. Today we are having clouds & sun and hopefully we might see harvest on beans start again late tomorrow or Sunday. Some corn is being done but harvest has been limited here in NE Ohio but the fur-ther south we go into Lisbon & New Philly the more it has picked up. Yields on beans I would put some where in the mid 40’s per acre and corn has been around the 160 mark. Basis continues to stay firm for corn and beans have also stayed steady. The market is still trying to digest the reports of yields that it hears coming out of the fields. Don’t look though for any change to speak of anytime soon. If we are going to see changes from the USDA it will not likely come until the Jan-20 final production report. Wheat has had a nice rally and if you planted some wheat this fall I might consider getting some of it priced and reward the market for its move up.

 

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Melinda Ledley - Director Origination, Logistics and Risk Compliance

Today, I’m borrowing a couple graphs from Ar-len Suderman, Chief Economist for INTL FCStone, that I think do a real nice job of visual-izing the balance between the good and the bad impacting corn and bean prices and why they continue to trade in such tight trading ranges. I’ve also hogged some of Ed’s space below to share the Bean chart.

The larger the size of the circle, the larger the impact on the market. As you can see, most of the dots are equal in size and there is also an even scatter of short term and long term influ-encers to work through. Based on all these fac-tors, I’d expect a lot of price uncertainty for many weeks/months to come in the commodity markets.

 

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Ed Nienaber - Vice President, Grain Division

Grain futures prices at the CME seem to have found a comfortable trading range since the last government report. Basis levels continue to be unusually steady to firm for this time of year, as we move through harvest in Ohio. We have plenty of space for this year’s crop and bushels are going into storage. China continues to be in the forefront of the trading news, with ASF hav-ing reduced its hog population by close to 50% from a year ago and still doesn’t seem to be under con-trol. China has purchased a net 94.0K MT of U.S. pork for shipment in the current year and another 58.6MT for next year shipment. In addition, weekly export sales of soybeans were 1.601 million tones, net sales to China were 0.851 million tones. China has bought 5.6 million tons of beans this marketing year compared to 1.1 million last year. As we continue to work out a trade agreement, which seems to be on again off again depending on the day of the week. We can only hope that a fair agreement is worked out soon because China is going to have a large appetite for agriculture commodities in the coming years. Next USDA crop report will be on Friday, November 10 and most in the trade are looking for further adjustments to this year carry-over numbers. Big harvest weekend ahead, be safe and have a great week!


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