Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary

Weekly Crop Commentary

Sep 13, 2019


Lou Baughman - Region 1 Grain Merchant

Negotiations seem to be continuing on a positive note with China, and the reduction of the bean carry out the USDA sent out yesterday put the market up. China also bought ten cargoes of US beans yesterday for shipment of October through December, and on official news China would exempt US pork and soybeans from additional tariffs. The African Swine Fever has taken a toll on China’s pork supplies and by lifting the tariffs on US beans and pork they are hoping to earn politi-cal points in the trade negotiations knowing they will need to purchase both from the US.


Steve Bricher - Region 3 Grain Merchant

We are now starting to see a little early harvest in my area as a few end users are crying for corn. I have re-ceived several calls in the last few weeks saying the USDA numbers cannot be correct. The biggest issue every-one has is with the corn yield. Last year national yield was 176.4; yesterday the USDA pegged it at 168.2, 8 bushels below last year. Well they say Ohio is bad yes, it is, last year we had at state average of 187 this year we are pegged at 158, down almost 30 bushel per acre. The next comment I receive is Illinois is bad; yes it is, last year Illinois was 210 this year it is projected 180, down 30 also. With the additional acres and carryover stocks from this year, we have enough corn but it may not be where it is needed.
We also have to remember on September 13 last year cash corn at Urbana was 3.35, today we are 3.82, almost 50 cents a bushel higher. Yes, we know this has been a tough year and it is hard to look at the positive but we will have a harvest and begin to plan for a better year next year.


Wes Bahan - Region 4 Grain Merchant 

Good Afternoon everyone and welcome back to summer. This was a wild week in the mar-kets. There appears to be some give from both the Chinese and US on the trade front, and this did result in some bean business to China. It appears to be only 5 boats worth at this time, but business is business and it has to start somewhere. We are starting to see a potential problem in Brazil. They are going through some hot and dry conditions in the heart of their growing region, and they are on the cusp of planting. This will discourage any early planting until they get some moisture for germi-nation. These items have really added a nice bounce to the soybean market, and we have seen some nice selling of beans the last couple days. The USDA did alter some production numbers in yester-day’s report, but nothing of real significance. There has been a small bit of harvest activity in a few spots that planted early, with yield and quality being a bit better than expected. Corn basis contin-ues to be strong as the bushels become harder and harder to originate.

Ralph Wince - Region 5 Grain Merchandiser

Good Afternoon, the latest and greatest USDA Reports came out yesterday and there were no big sur-prises . The soybean market did rally some but most of that was off of the tweets about China and the US making some progress on the trade war. We all have heard that story before. Carryout numbers on beans did shrink slightly and corn was pretty much unchanged for the 19-20 marketing year. Basis levels on corn continue to stay firm as we draw closer to NC. Here in NE Ohio we still have some farmers cleaning up old corn but it does feel like there is less old crop corn sitting around this year than the last few. We have seen a little bit of corn & beans come off in the southern parts of our territory this past week but it’s only been a few select areas. We could use a drink of water to help with the late planted beans right now. It seems like there will still be at least another full week of above normal temps and that is very helpful for the late planted corn & beans. I still believe we won’t know the full yield story until the com-bines hit the fields. I will say though that I think we have seen some rationing of corn already. It seems that the ethanol demand for corn has softened some here as of late. Time will tell if they continue to be aggressive. I hope you all have a good weekend.


Melinda Ledley - Director Origination, Logistics and Risk Compliance

Soybean processors are beginning to soften up basis as harvest begins. Soybean futures have gained this week on a combination of factors and producers are taking advantage of the oppor-tunities to catch up sales on the last of their old crop ownership. Corn basis remains fairly flat across much of Ohio and futures prices have been able to bounce off contract lows a couple times in the last 7-10 days. I hope that’s a sign that lows are in, but with so many unanswered questions on final crop size we’re a long way from confirming that.
We are about to cross the mid-point of September and fall will officially begin in about 10 days. This crop may be smaller, but many producers are well behind normal in getting what they’ll have marketed. I encourage you to reach out to your grain buyer to discuss your pricing needs and find the marketing alternatives that best fit your operation.

Heritage will have discount rates and delayed price rates set in the coming weeks. I hope those visiting the Farm Science Review next week will stop by our demonstration building and say Hello.



Ed Nienaber - Vice President, Grain Division 


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