Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/2/20

Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/2/20

Jul 02, 2020

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The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen United States of America. When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. Today, July 2nd marks the 244th anniversary of the Continental Congress vote in favor of independence. Two days following July 2, 1776, delegates from the 13 colonies adopted the Declaration of Independence. Take a minute to read the document in its entirety:
https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript

Reading this once a year always keeps me focused and hopeful and it seems very fitting considering this year’s events.

Thanks to Allen Douglas at FCStone for the inspiration and I hope you all have an enjoyable 4th of July weekend.

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Good afternoon. Here we are the pivotal July 4th weekend for the grain markets. Well the acreage report this week provided the spice that the markets have been looking for. Corn acreage was seen at 92 million compared to expectations of 95 million. Soybean acres came in at just shy of 84 million compared to expectations of 85 million. With that we have seen the corn market recover some 30 cents this week, and that brought with it a large amount of producer selling. This spilled over into the bean market as it added 40 cents since the report. This also sparked a lot of selling from the farmers. With all the selling we are seeing basis levels cool off a bit on corn as most have been able to extend coverage of corn needs. The bean basis continues to be strong in the river markets as the closure of the Illinois River limits the draw area for the New Orleans export market. The processor market wants to weaken as crush margins are not attractive. With all the heat we are seeing this week the crops seem to be handling it well so far, but with more 90 degree heat and no rain on tap how much longer before signs of stress appear. Hope you all have a happy and safe holiday weekend.

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This has turned into an exciting week for the markets. It started out Monday, gloom and doom. Tuesday was such a surprise with the acreage numbers the markets took off, filling a few target orders. Wednesday came and the market stayed strong. Thursday started out the same but quickly took a turn. The market will close early today and will not trade until Sunday night for the holiday.

Wheat harvest has started locally, it should go off without a hitch this year. The weather forecast looks good for a week, even the straw should get all picked up before there is a chance of rain. Wheat quality is good this year other than the test weight is running about 58-59.

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Happy Independence Day! What a difference a week makes. USDA Planted Acreage report gave us a friendly surprise on Tuesday with fewer planted acres; corn at 92 million and beans just shy of 84 million. From the lows on Monday to the highs on Thursday, we saw a good bit of action as old corn had a 36 cent trading range (new crop 40 cents) and old soybeans a 40 cent range (new crop 46 cents). Nearby wheat had a 25 cent trading range. Here at midday on Thursday, it appears our rally is slowing down as we head into the holiday weekend. The run in the market finally stirred up some farmer selling this week on both old and new corn and soybeans. I’m of the opinion it’s a good idea to feed the rally and price some of that old crop and get a little something on the books for the new.

We have seen our first 5300 bushels of wheat here at Mechanicsburg starting Tuesday. Average moisture is still fairly wet at 18.6, ranging from 14-24%. Be sure to download the Heritage app to get notifications on your local branch’s extended harvest hours. Next week looks to be a hot one with temps in the mid-90s. Be sure to take breaks, drink lots of water, and wear your sunscreen. Have a safe and enjoyable Fourth!

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Good afternoon, wow what a week in the markets. The USDA on Tuesday said that we planted 92.0 million acres of corn and 83.8 million acres of soybeans. Both were very different from what the traders were looking for and corn was 5 million acres less than the Prospective Plantings number in March. With the corn funds nearing a record short position going into the report that was a recipe for a rally. Sep corn hit a low of 3.1575 on June 26th and closed at 3.5050 yesterday (July 1st) that was just shy of +.35 cents. Also helping both corn & beans is the near term forecast showing dry & warm conditions for the next 6-10 days. Beans were helped by the USDA basically not increasing acres from the March report. The ATG on bean acres was 84.716 million acres and that did not happen so it was off to the races for the bean market as well. What got over looked was the quarterly stocks numbers. We are not running out of anything. This may be a gift to us, only time will tell but I would say that if the weather forecast changes and we put some rain back into the forecast we could give back some of this. Wheat harvest has yet to start over here in Heritage East territory. I look for us to be started no later than Monday. With this hot & dry weather wheat is changing very fast. I wish all of you a very Happy 4th Of July.

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Just the opposite of last week this has been a good week for the corn and soybean markets. We have seen old crop prices rise to the highest levels we have seen since mid-March. I know I have talked to more customers this week that have actually been in a decent mood. We have seen a fair amount of selling activity on old crop grain this week

I’m sure others are going to talk about planted acres, so I am going to skip that. The one thing we have been looking at is Dec 2021 corn futures. With current carryout stocks predicted, if we can get Dec 2021 to the 3.90 to 4.00 level, it may be a very good place to start selling some of the 2021 crop. I am not saying we need to sell out entire crop but if 3.90 December futures is our worst sale next year we should be able to keep doing what we are doing.

Wheat harvest has started and it seems as if we are not going to have a VOM problem this year.

As I have written the last month or so, unless we have a major weather problem going forward we have to realistic about how far prices can advance when we are looking at the carryout’s that are predicted today.


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