Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/31/20

Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/31/20

Jul 31, 2020

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Happy Friday and then end of July 2020. The weekly crop ratings have improved over the past two weeks for much of the country. US corn and soybeans are rated at 72% in the good to excellent category. This is consistent with past years that produced trendline yields and bumper crops. Ohio is currently rated at 49% good to excellent on corn and 54% on soybeans. This is an improvement over the past two weeks as we have seen much better weather across much of the grain growing region. Both corn and bean basis have come under pressure as farmers have begun to clean up inventories on the farm. We find cash corn prices at seasonal lows as September corn futures trade at life of contract lows (CU 3.145). Soybean futures remain in a steady to sideways trading range (SX 8.90). The market continues to announce trades being made daily to China and demand from an export picture, seems to be at a record pace. However, even with the loss of over 4 million planted acres of corn based on the USDA latest crop update, we continue to trade the corn market lower. The next government report will be released on Wednesday, August 12 and even with the excellent crop ratings, I would hope that we see some adjustments made to carry-over figures. Please continue to be safe as we deal with COVID-19 and have a great week.

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Good afternoon. Here we are at the close of another month, and what a month this was. As we look back on July we see that the markets began the month on fire. Literally hot and dry projections for the month had markets rallying. We did see some hot weather, but most of the growing region did also have ample rainfall, and the USDA did not make any adjustments to the yield projections for this fall. This along with producers actively selling their remaining old crop stocks were more than the bulls could handle. There could be an argument made that China is purchasing ag products to honor the phase I agreement, and we are seeing reports from the USDA verifying that. Will it actually ship, or is this strictly a political agenda? Time will tell, but it would appear that the market is convinced they will ship.

Cash basis levels continue to be steady, but are beginning to feel heavy. There are a few end users that need to buy some bushels to get to new crop, but every day that gap is closer to being filled. Look for cash basis and new crop basis levels to start coming together. There is just too much uncertainty in the markets at this time to attract buyers. We will see what next week brings.

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Another month has come and gone, one more and harvest will be knocking on the door. Locally we have had
spotty rains that has relieved stress on the crops, more is needed to carry us through.

Yesterday USDA reported export sales of 1,937,000 tonnes of new crop corn for delivery to China, the
third largest overnight corn sale by China in history. Even though exports are very good the market is still
looking to have a bumper crop to try to get rid of this fall. There are still too many variables to feel bullish
about the market today.

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Good afternoon. Crop condition has continued to improve and that is being reflected in the market this week
with all three commodities losing about 8-10 cents on the week. Ohio corn is rated 49% Good/Excellent, only
3 points behind average. Ohio soybeans are 54% Good/Excellent, which is actually 5 points above average.
With recent rainfalls, customers I’ve talked to are more hopeful about the later planted corn in the area than
the earlier corn. Customers are mixed on thoughts about soybeans. Some are hopeful for their best ever while
those without rain are worried. August rains sure would put most of us more at ease.

Yesterday, China made their largest ever single-day corn purchase from the U.S. at 1.937 million metric tons.
However, it barely made a blip in the market. With such a large U.S. crop ahead of us and continued doubts
China will fulfill their Phase 1 trade agreement, there just isn’t anything that can get the corn market stirred
up. Enjoy the cooler weather in the days ahead and have a great weekend!

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Good Afternoon, its hard to believe that July is over. It seems just like yesterday that we were planting the
2020 crop. As far as the markets go we continue to see corn inch back off of the highs we saw at the first of
the month. Crop ratings came in better than the market was looking for this week. Even though China has
been buying a fare amount of corn from the US that has not been enough to off set the potential size of this
years crop. As far as beans go we have fallen off the highs but not near as much as corn. China has continued
to buy beans out of the US for this fall and the market has taken notice of that. We also still have the critical
month of Aug before the bean crop is made. We all know that the size of the bean plant does not determine
the bushels per acre. We need that moisture to fill those pods. Aug 12th is our next update on carry outs and
size of our crops so we are still a little ways off till we get another update. As far as what crops look like here in
the east. Most places look pretty good but all of us could use a drink of water but there are those pockets that
have missed most of the rains and they really need a drink. Have a great weekend!!!!

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The calendar turns to August this weekend and most everyone’s mind turn to harvest. Sure there are a few
bushels still to get moved off the farm but for the most part you have emptied your bins. We are seeing some
county fairs going on, a little different this year, but kids are showing animals and enjoying the rewards of
their hard work. If you are still reading my article at this point you have noticed I have yet to write about the
markets, well that is because I have been avoiding being the bearer of not so good news.

The corn market this week almost traded to life of contract lows. The problem we have today is a vision
problem. We are sitting here in Ohio and we are wondering why the market keeps going down when the crop
looks maybe just ok. When we look out our door, the Ohio corn crop is rated the worst in the county, where
the 5 big states (Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota) are looking at some of the best crops ever.
It is hard to get excited about your prospects when you see harvest corn prices with a 2 in front of them.
We are going to have a big crop. We will start to see yield estimates and don’t be surprised when you hear of a
180 bushel national yield average. Carryover next year is going to be large, even with China buying corn. We
have seen demand issues in the US as gasoline usage is still below last year so we don’t need as much ethanol.

As of today I don’t see a way to 4.00 futures unless something happens to production down the road.
Soybeans are still kind of holding up as export demand is good and most of the rest of the world is out of
soybeans they can put to the market. As I wrote a few weeks ago I think soybeans have a chance to see 9.00
as a cash number but we are only 3 months away from South American planting their 2021 crop; and
predictions are they will increase acres as their profitability today is very good because of the currency
exchange.

We will have to see what Mother Nature brings us over the next 60 days as we get ready to harvest this crop.
 


Julia Naus

Grain Orginator Region 2
Happy Friday! We started off the week with some showers that were much needed. Despite conflict
between the United States and China due to the closing of consulates in both Huston and Chengdu,
China is still buying corn and soybeans. China needed to rebuild its swine numbers after African
swine fever outbreaks, leading to China’s overall soybean imports from Brazil in June at a record of
10.51 million tonnes. The U.S. sold 1.937 million tonnes of corn to China (its biggest weekly total) for
delivery in the 2020/21 marketing year. It is safe to say that all crops are looking better than last
year, and conditions were reported better than expected regardless of some pockets of concern.
 



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