Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 9-4-2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 9-4-2020

Sep 04, 2020


Welcome to Labor Day Weekend and the unofficial end of summer. A little about this holiday that most of us have probably never considered. Labor Day was officially signed into law by PresidentGrover Cleveland on June 28, 1894. However, the origins of the holiday predate the law by about 20 years as labor strife was common in the early days of the US Industrial Revolution. The push for the holiday was largely carried out by various labor unionsof the time.
  
 Commodity prices for the week are nearly unchanged with beans showing the only real strength, up a dime for the week. The crop condition report for the week showed Ohio unchanged in the good/excellent category at 45% corn and 54% soybeans. The rest of the USdropped 2-3% for the week with most of the decline occurring in Iowa. StoneX released production numbers early in the week while INFORA rolled their numbers out today.
 

  Corn Production
(Billion Bushels)
Corn Yield
(Bushels per Acre)
Soybean Production
(Billion Bushels)
Soybean Yield
(Bushels per Acre)
StoneX 15.085 179.6 4.388 51.1
Informa 14.961 178.1 4.323 52.1
USDA August 15.278 181.8 4.425 53.3

Both figures are lower than the August USDA numbers, and we expect them to follow suit next Friday. With continued export announcements this week for the current crop year, we would expect the carry-over numbers on Friday’s report to be lowered as well. Thebasis continues to remain firm on cash corn as end users continue to look for just-in-time bushels to bridge the gap to new crop corn. Soybean basis has been steady on the week as the export market is keeping levels firm. USDA will release fresh numbers onFriday, September 11 and grain stocks will be reported at the end of the month. Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day Weekend!
  
 

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This week brought another round of Chinese grain purchases. Over a million tons of corn, a couple rounds of soybeans, and even some wheat.  This still wasn't enough to propel corn past the200 day moving average, or beans back to the January highs. The futures markets feel like the need more news to push these levels, and maybe next weeks supply and demand update will offer some. Basis level for both corn and beans have a bit of premium forquick ship, but will quickly fade as harvest begins. This is a viable option for those bushels remaining on DP before new charges take effect.  Another thing to look at would be wheat prices for next summer. These are at some very attractive levels and ifyou are planning to plant wheat this fall you may want to look at contracting some bushels.  


Declining crop conditions continued in Monday’s report putting thoughts of crop yields on the decline as well.  USDA will come out with new numbers next Friday (11th).  

 Cold weather is being reported for the Corn Belt next week but crop damage is not likely.  

 Grain markets held their gains for the week.  Beans had the best export sales on record for the year coming in at 24.2mmt and 56% was to China.  Corn export sales for the year, 15.7mmt 47% was to China.  The markets will be closed until the Monday night sessionto observe Labor Day.  Enjoy the weekend and be safe.   

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Happy Friday! I got four inches of rain at my house last weekend. Although the chance of showers this weekend is looking low, the low temps are looking favorable. 

 It has been another good week with bean prices on the rise. As for corn, ethanol demand has stagnated. Production was at 922,000 barrels per day last week, down 9% from this time last year. Gasoline demand is running down 7% from this time last year. Drivinghabits among Americans have not returned to normal amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Some predict 500 million bushels worth of corn demand loss for the old-crop marketing year. Feed and export demand are still strong - 16.5 million bushels of sales to China andunknown destinations in the week of August 27th. USDA’s weekly export sales report stated 96,000 old crop corn, 2.4 new crop corn, 88 old crop beans, and 1.8 new crop beans. 

 Be on the lookout for the monthly USDA crop report next Friday, September 11th. Corn and soybean production numbers are predicted to drop a little from the August report due to dry weather and storms in Iowa. 

 With Labor Day being Monday, the markets will be closed until that evening. We hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable weekend! 

Happy Labor Day Weekend! It’s been another active week in the soybean market with a net gain of around 17 cents since last Friday. Corn seems to have found a level to hang near until somekind of additional news breaks. Wheat has also had a fairly neutral week. If you’re planning to plant wheat this fall, be thinking about your marketing plan and give us some target offers if you’re not ready to contract just yet.

 China has still been active in new crop purchases with sale announcements four days this week. Also this week, half a dozen analyst companies have published yield and production guesses – all coming in below USDA’s August numbers. All eyes will be on the USDASeptember report coming next Friday at noon. Markets are closed Monday, as are we. I hope you have a wonderful holiday weekend!
 



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Sep 25, 2020
The futures market has not been kind this week as we have lost a dime in corn and close to fifty cents on soybeans.
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