Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Progress & Condition Ratings

Weekly Crop Progress & Condition Ratings

Jun 11, 2019

Average trade guesses were right on the money in Monday afternoon’s planting progress as reported by USDA. The US corn planted average was reported at 83%. By state, the progress ranges from 50% to 100% complete with Ohio holding the lowest spot at 50%. Soybean planting was also as expected with 60% planted. The range of progress by state is 32% to 95% and Ohio again held the bottom spot. Just as important to price direction last night were the first crop condition ratings for corn. USDA reports condition ratings only on emerged crops and rated 59% of the emerged corn crop in good/excellent shape. Ohio emerged corn was rated 58% good/excellent. Soybean emergence not far enough along to be included in condition ratings this week. Expect those to be released for the first time next week. Market prices took a softer tone on the evening open and remained lower through the morning break.

US Corn Planting Progress thru June 9nd
  This Week Last Week Last Year 5 Year Average
US 83% 67% 99% 99%
Ohio 50% 33% 96% 96%

US Soybean Planting Progress thru June 9nd
  This Week Last Week Last Year 5 Year Average
US 60% 39% 92% 88%
Ohio 32% 18% 89% 89%

US Winter Wheat Condition Ratings (Good/Excellent) thru June 9nd
  This Week Last Week Last Year 5 Year Average
US 64% 64% 38% 45%
Ohio 31% 32% 78% 76%

Corn Crop Condition Ratings (Good/Excellent) thru June 9nd
  This Week Last Week Last Year 5 Year Average
US 64% 64% 38% 45%
Ohio 31% 32% 78% 76%

The demand has taken a back seat supply concerns over the last three weeks as planting delays have grabbed trader attention. However, today at noon, USDA will release their Supply and Demand projections and that may serve as a brief reminder of the current comfortable carryover expectations.

USDA 2018/19 Carryout (in billion bushel)
  USDA Jun 2019 Average Trade Est Estimate Range USDA May 2019
Corn   2.123 2.035-2.245 2.095
Soybeans   1.004 0.920-1.045 0.995
Wheat   1.121 1.087-1.152 1.127

USDA 2019/20 US Carryout (in billion bushel)
  USDA Jun 2019 Average Trade Est Estimate Range USDA May 2019
Corn   1.917 1.633-2.404 2.485
Soybeans   0.983 0.854-1.069 0.970
Wheat   1.118 1.052-1.180 1.141


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