Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/7/20

Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/7/20

Aug 07, 2020

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Good afternoon and welcome to August.  I don’t know about you, but the few days of fall-like weather sure was refreshing.

August also brings with it crop estimate season.  On Monday evening we had Stone X send shock waves through the grain trade with a robust 182.4 average corn yield estimate, and 52.0 average soybean yield.  Many others have released estimates ranging from 177.5 to 183.3 on corn, and 49.8 to 53.0 on soybeans.  Of all the estimates the averages come in at 180.4 for corn and 51.3 for soybeans.  If this is realized, we could see ending stocks on corn approach the 3-billion-bushel mark and 600 million bushels of soybeans.  This coupled with projected record plantings in Brazil sent the markets lower.  Brazil at this point is projecting soybean production at a staggering 130MMT, and that would be a new record, to say the least.  As we get closer to harvest, we are also seeing basis levels in the cash market turning south.  As each week passes and we bridge the gap to harvest we will see the cash and fall basis levels begin to converge, which right now appears to be a double whammy.

It just boils down to there is nothing bullish the market, and there doesn’t appear to be anything to change that right now.


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Ouch. It’s been a rough week for the grain market. The bearish news keeps outweighing any hint of bullish tidbits. Between farmer surveys and analyst estimates, yield expectations are coming in higher than USDA’s July estimates, which were 178.5 corn and 49.8 beans. Next Wednesday’s report has analysts expecting 180.4 corn and 51.3 beans. StoneX (formerly FC Stone) published survey results on Monday and pegs Ohio at 185 corn and 59 beans. Corn may be better than it appeared from the road in July once we pull ears and do some calculations.

Local cash basis has faded a nickel on both corn and soybeans as we get nearer to merging with harvest bids. For those of you with grain still on Delayed Price, time is running out if you’re wanting to sell before the new crop year. There is also the option of moving those bushels to a basis contract to stop accruing charges. Give one of us a call to discuss options. Have a great weekend!


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Good Afternoon, the markets continue to slide as private estimates continue to increase the size of the crop. Here in the east, we have continued to see good coverage with rains. This last rain could have not come any nicer. The crops will use every ounce of it. Most crops look very good and if we receive another couple of rains this month we could have a bumper crop of soybeans. The markets are waiting to see what next week's USDA updated report shows to help once again to give the market direction. Give us a call and talk to us about some different strategies to help protect the downside in the market and also be able to capture the upside in the market if prices go higher. Have a good weekend and we will talk to you next week after our updated USDA report that comes out next Wed.  

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I have a friend who reads my weekly comments tell me that I am the bearer of bad news.

I told him that I write what I think is the truth as best as I see it every Friday morning.  It is not always sunshine and roses, as I am sure most who are reading my comments each week can understand.

Corn hit life of contract lows this week as crop conditions in general improved across the Midwest.  We seem to have good moisture here in Ohio as the crop looks much better than it did a few weeks ago.  I have started my evening motorcycle rides to start walking into cornfields to see what the crop is looking like.  I did 3 on Wednesday evening and they ran anywhere from 174 to 208.  Pollination was better than I thought it might be but most ears were 14 to 16 rows and 35 to 40 kernel count. 

This crop is not near as tall as we have seen in the last few years as I can reach the top of the plant with not much effort.  There are still fields that are just finishing pollination so I will get to those in the next few weeks.  I have a hard time today believing we will see a record corn crop in Ohio, but lord knows I have been wrong before. Champaign County averaged 148 last year I do believe the crop today is better than it was a year ago though.

Soybeans look good and if we continue to get rains, we could have a bumper soybean crop.
Color and size are good, and we are not seeing much insect pressure in the field or two that I walked.
We will have to see if Mother Nature gives us continued rains over the next month or so to get the crop completed.

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Happy Friday! This week was dry compared to last week in the Upper Sandusky area. USDA yield report will be released Wednesday, August 12th. The United States and China will be assessing their Phase 1 agreement on Saturday, August 15th, just six months after the deal took effect. We are not exactly sure why China is buying the massive amounts of corn in which they are, but we do know that their actions are our greatest uncertainty. Possible explanations could be:  

  ∙ Withholding their end of the Phase 1 trade deal 

  ∙ Feed for the growing number of hogs being raised after African Swine Fever outbreaks 

  ∙ Taking advantage of low prices in the U.S.  

  ∙ Storing in case the United States and China resume their trade dispute 

  ∙ Crop problems due to flooding and locust clouds 

  ∙ Suffering from the Bubonic Plague 

Although some uncertainty in the markets, we have much to look forward to with harvest approaching around the corner. Enjoy the warm weather this weekend! 



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