Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary -

Weekly Crop Commentary -

Sep 03, 2021

 
 
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Good afternoon and welcome to Friday once again. Stone X was out yesterday with their September crop production estimate. They feel that the crops have gotten bigger since the last estimate. This could be the case as most in the west did see good rains, but they did have spots that experienced some wind damage. Speaking of wind damage, Hurricane Ida sure wreaked havoc in New Orleans. There are several export terminals that are shuttered due to damage. From the news coming out, it appears that they won’t be back up and going for some time. What will this do to the flow of grains this fall?? We did see some beneficial rains when Ida and a cold front converged over us. This should be the icing on the cake and finish off the crop. Corn basis remains locally strong as end users continue to struggle to find bushels, but that will likely change in the very near future. If you still have bushels on DP this may be the final chance before the slide begins. As we have stated for the last several weeks, cash basis will converge into new crop. It will not be the other way around. Bean basis on the other hand has been steadily getting weaker. It appears that processors are getting that bridge to new crop covered and not wanting to buy anymore high-priced beans than they absolutely must. Hope you all have a great holiday weekend and enjoy the first taste of fall-like weather.
 
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Heading into a holiday weekend, there will be no markets until Monday evening. Privet yield estimates have started to come out, and it looks like the trend is higher. There will be more estimates next week before the USDA report on Friday. StoneX guess raised their numbers to 177.5bba for corn, and 50.8bba for soybeans compared to Aug USDA numbers of 174.6 and 49. Exports sales for corn and beans have been strong while the wheat struggles. Shipments out of the Gulf should be able to load again in two to three weeks from the hurricane damage.
 
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I have been out the last couple of Fridays so I need to catch up on what is going on. I did travel out west 2 weeks ago and drove from Omaha to Columbus, Nebraska. The crops in that 90 mile stretch looked very good and were moving toward harvest. You do have to remember that most of that area is under pivots. Last weekend we rode the bikes up 235 to Toledo and back; the crops looked good, but you could see that area above 30 was dry as the yards were brown. We are a couple weeks away from some guys starting harvest as the early beans are turning.

The corn and soybeans markets are on a little of a pre harvest slide as there is not much news to get them moving higher and we are looking at a good harvest across a large part of the Midwest.

Hurricane Ida did some damage to export loading facilities on the gulf coast so we will see what this does to basis and movement as we get into harvest. If we stay dry and we don’t have any weather issues, basis will not improve as we move through harvest, as we have a big crop here in Ohio space will become an issue. As I have told my customers, we can handle and keep our plants open if harvest takes 8 weeks. If we try to do it in 5 or 6, it becomes an issue.

I would recommend that once you get started and get a handle on your yields move what you don’t think you can store in you bins sooner than later as space will become tight as harvest finishes up in November. We will do our best, but sometimes movement is out of our control.

We are still looking for harvest help at many of our plants. If you know of anyone looking for full or part time work, have them get us a call. My hope is that it does not cause us an issue this harvest but if we can’t find people, we may have to limit hours at some of our plants. This is not just an issue for Heritage Cooperative but an issue for many businesses around the state.
 
 
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Heritage Cooperative
59 Greif Parkway
Delaware, OH 43015



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