Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/15/2021

Oct 15, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/15/2021
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We have reached the halfway point for the month of October and it appears we are close to 70% on beans and 20% with corn harvest. The USDA released the latest supply/demand numbers this week and as expected, they raised both corn and bean carry-over figures. Ohio is predicted to have record corn and bean yields this year. Government corn yield are estimated at 188.0 bushel per acre and beans are coming in at 58.0 bu./acre. We saw heavy fund selling, post report, as the USDA confirmed what we had anticipated.  However, markets have worked higher today, and we are currently down only five cents in corn, working toward unchanged, and down twenty-five cents in soybeans. China is back in the bean market with export sales announcement this week in excess of 10.0MMT. This along with excellent crush margins on beans, has been very supportive to CME futures market. The overall demand for commodities and concerns over inflation and fertilizer prices will be supportive long-term to prices. Brazil bean planting is moving along very well, however the concerns over LA Nina weather event in the southern hemisphere will be of market interest as we move into the growing season. Please continue to be safe and have a great harvest week.

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Happy Friday.  Well, we had another big week of bean harvesting in the area. Everyone has been able to remain open, but it is starting to get tight. Rains predicted this weekend should allow folks a chance to consolidate some things and make some space. The final push is always the hardest. Yields have held up nicely and most seem to be very happy with what they have seen. There have been a few starting to dabble into some corn, and it too is impressive. The warm windy conditions we have seen have dried things down nicely. Basis levels have continued to be steady and with the biggest share of bean harvest behind us, basis should start to get a little stronger. We did get updated supply and demand numbers from the USDA this week. They increased bean yields by just under 1 bushel per acre and with the bigger carry in numbers we have a projected carryout of 320 million bushels. Corn yields were adjusted just a bit and carryout stocks are projected to be 1.4 billion bushels. We did see some export business on the set back in the futures, so next week’s report will be impressive. We just need to keep it up, there are a lot of beans to move. Have a great weekend.
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Happy Friday! Mechanicsburg area soybean harvest progress took a 29-point giant leap to 70% complete since last week, which is right on par with our five-year average. Corn progress here is about 20%, a few points better than our average for this time of year, but well ahead of last year. Customers continue to be tickled with soybean yields.
The USDA report on Tuesday was the biggest story of the market this week. The corn and bean production numbers both increased more than the average trade estimates, so that’s why we saw the bearish reaction post-report with corn closing down 10 and beans down 30. They have the U.S. corn yield at 176.5 bpa and Ohio at 188 bpa. Soybeans are pegged at 51.5 bpa for the U.S. and 58.0 bpa for Ohio. 
The price break on Tuesday did finally stir up some soybean sales to China and “unknown destinations”, though. From Wednesday through Friday morning, a combined 43.5 million bushels of soybeans have been announced through flash sale notifications. As a result, corn and beans have recovered some on Thursday and so far on this Friday morning.
If the forecast holds up for this afternoon, it appears we’ll get a chance to catch up on paperwork and other chores. Please let your branch know if you’re ready for a check or deferment, as its policy for us to wait on a request for settlement. Have a great weekend!
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It has been a very hectic week for harvest. The soybeans just don’t want to dry down as we get little spits of rain every other day or so. We are seeing several customers finish up soybeans this week and turn their attention to corn.

The grain markets this week reflected the crop report as we saw a larger soybean carryout as yields have been better across the country and exports are not quite as good as expected. We have to remember we are still 1.50 a bushel higher than were this time last year and for the most part yields are 10 bushel to the acre better. 

I do not feel we will see a quick recovery in soybeans prices to last year’s levels unless we have crop issues somewhere else in the world. 

Corn is chopping sideways to slightly lower over the last few weeks as we are seeing harvest pressure and not any real news to make the market want to go higher. The market today seems to be content on where it is at and neither buyers nor sellers seem to be pushing the issue one way or another.
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Good afternoon. This week brought another update from USDA. On the corn and bean front we got nothing to get the bulls excited. With corn and bean carryout’s increasing for now the market feels that the current pricing is good enough. The next potential market moving event now seems to be waiting on what the weather does in South America. Our bean carryout is comfortable for now but it’s not a huge carryout and if we have any kind of concerns down the road, that could have an impact. That will take some time to develop. Another concern in the commodity markets in general is what inflation is going to continue to do. If inflation concerns start to develop outside investor money tends to work its way into commodities as a hedge against inflation. Again this is more of a long term question not a short term question. China is back to buying some more beans but the Gulf is still having some struggles getting ships loaded. I talked with some of my contacts at CHS today and they said that there are still issues at the Gulf. As far as harvest goes we have been able to make some progress this week on beans and I would say that here in the eastern part of Heritage territory we are about 55% to 60% harvested on beans. Not much corn has been harvested yet. It appears that after the weekend rains that we clear out again next week and we hope that most of the rest of the beans can get harvested. Yields continue to be good on beans. Corn appears to be looking like it could be really good but it’s till to soon to tell. Have a great weekend and we will talk to you next week.
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Another week of harvest wrapping up today with some showers moving in today and tomorrow. The markets standing bearish currently with December corn up 11 at $5.27, November soybeans up 9 at $12.18 and December wheat up 12 at $7.37. There is still an opportunity to contract $7.00 wheat for July delivery. The WASDE report on October 10th said Ohio corn harvest is 19% complete, bean harvest at 33% and Ohio winter wheat 42% completed. The next report to come out will be the November 9th WASDE. Stay safe!

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