Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/16/2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/16/2020

Oct 16, 2020

The USDA reported national bean harvest progress across the country at 61% completed compared to Ohio at 49%. The national corn harvest is 41% complete in the U.S., with Ohio lagging at only 15%. Both percentages will show progress as combines in the Midwest have been very busy as they have missed most, if not all the moisture we have received in Ohio this week. Corn prices continue to trend higher as continued export sales and local grind demand have pushed prices to seasonal highs, levels we haven’t seen since back in January. Soybean prices have moved sideways this week as funds have taken profit from recent moves. In addition, harvest pressure and front-end demand is beginning to cause logistical issues. The historic Chinese buying spree of the past two months is focused on the first quarter of our marketing year. This has put unforeseen pressure on our transportation system as well as forced most, if not all carry, out of the futures markets. When you add the continued dry weather pattern in the southern hemisphere it is a story we haven’t seen in quite sometime in the grain futures market. Look for continued adjustments to both corn and soybean carry-over figures as we move through the winter towards the January USDA supply/demand report. The next report is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, but before that takes place, we have other issues the week before that may have a bigger baring on price direction. Please continue to be safe and have a great harvest week.

Good afternoon and welcome to the half way point of October.  Well we were able to put together another good run for most of the week, but the rains yesterday have given a breather for a bit.  Doesn’t sound like too much rain fell, seems like one to two tenths caught the area.  Hope that we can get back at it tomorrow afternoon.

The lack of corn drying in the field seems to be the main story.  This lack of harvest activity is causing basis level to appreciate, and the lower carry in number revealed by the USDA is also helping to bring that along.  Weekly export report this morning did show sales this week at the lower end of the range, but we have seen some reports this week that will make the numbers next week look better.

Bean harvest has been rolling along and most are still reporting better than expected yield numbers.  This and the nice rally we have seen are providing an opportunity to lock in some nice profits for cash flow needs.  Export sales of beans this week were above the highest expectations, but the Sept. crush report yesterday revealed a nice 6% bigger crush than a year ago.  The big focus now for the bean market is the weather in Brazil as they are in the beginning of their rainy season.  They are needing some moisture to begin seeding.  If we don’t see a bullish story there, will we see funds start to exit some of their longs positions that they have built in the bean market??

Volatility, was running high this week. Monday beans were down $.31, we then gained that all back, but today slipping ten cents at the time of this writing. The export report was today. Corn, beans and wheat came in better than expectations.

Bean harvest moved along quickly until Thursday. Many are pleased with the yields and are also glad for the little bit of moisture we did receive for the wheat that was planted.

Only a few have tried corn with moistures reading 21-28%.  I have not heard any yields at this time.  

Happy Friday! Another week has come and gone for harvest 2020 and prices are currently looking favorable for the farmer. It can be agreed upon that this is not our normal for this time of year. There has been a lot of volatility in the bean market between the USDA report released last Friday and dry weather in South America. The NOPA soybean crush reported 161.5 million bushels which beats the largest September crush on record of 160.7 million bushels back in 2018. December corn futures have hit a high of 4.09 today so far. Dry weather is fueling the wheat rally. Many are contracting wheat for July 2021. Below is a weekly export analysis summary.  

Export Sale Report Summary – Weekly Analysis: 10.08.20
Corn Soybeans Wheat (All)
25.8 mil bu 96.7 mil bu 19.4 mil bu

Well harvest 2020 is different, that is for sure.  We are seeing crop prices rally through harvest even with good yield data coming from the countryside. 

Soybeans continue to rally as we are seeing continued export demand which is driving the market to be front loaded as the export market wants soybeans today not 4 or 6 months from now.  We will see how this plays out as we move forward as January futures are a premium to March.

Corn harvest in my area is as slow as I have ever seen.  The farmer today is not liking the moisture that he is finding in his corn fields.  He is hoping for some warm weather to help dry this crop down. I do not think the forecast today is going to help him much.

Wheat is following the rest of the markets higher as we are seeing dry weather in Russia which is helping push prices higher.  We are seeing contract wheat for July 2021 at as high as levels we have seen in years.

Good afternoon! The weather has slowed soybean harvest this week, but we were on the downhill anyway here at Mechanicsburg. I’m estimating Region 3 is probably around 80% finished with soybean harvest. Corn however has a long way to go at only 5% complete. Moistures of corn delivered out of the field are 19-25%.

The market has been mixed this week. Overall since last Friday, corn has gained about a dime, while soybeans have lost about that much. Meanwhile, cash wheat is up nearly 30 cents and next July up 12 cents. The global weather has played a key factor in market action this week. Soybeans have benefited from South American dryness as they begin planting. Dry weather in other regions have been driving the wheat market.

Usage numbers have been mixed. Weekly ethanol production is averaging 11% below normal, while the September soy crush report was the highest Sept number since 2018. Export optimism continues to give the market buoyancy. USDA had flash sale announcements each day this week, with exception of the holiday on Monday. The traders are working to find the right balance between harvest pressure and bullish export opportunities. Thank you for your continued patronage and have a great weekend!

Good afternoon!  The grain markets have continued the up and down rollercoaster ride this week. Monday saw the soybean market fall off .32 cents only to pretty much claw its way back yesterday to almost the same level that it started before the fall off on Monday. As we roll towards the close right now, beans are off .10 cents here today. Corn & wheat futures continue to climb stronger here towards today’s close. The bigger story though for me is the lack of carry in this market right now. That tells us that the market wants your grain now and not later. With a 2.167-billion-bushel corn carryout that’s hard to believe for me today. The corn market should put some carry into this or basis should improve to entice the farmer to hold some of this with that type of a carryout number. The bean market is for sure telling us that we need to sell our soybeans before the end of January with an inverted market. Basis on soybeans also gets weaker after January as well. And finally, in the wheat market we really need to be contracting some 2021 wheat with the CBOT over the $6.00 mark here today. As far as harvest goes we have made good progress this week on beans here in the east but still very little progress on corn. Have a good weekend.

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