Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/22/2021

Oct 22, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/22/2021
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Good Afternoon.  It is hard to believe that we are in the last half of October already. This month is just flying by, but I feel I have said that several times.  We had another monster week of harvesting activity.  The beans started flowing again last Sunday afternoon and were rolling until yesterday afternoon as we got some rain.  In the western part of our area, it wasn’t even a traceable amount, but here in Delaware it absolutely poured.  Regardless that ended bean harvest for the week.  Corn continues to roll in and will through tomorrow.  I am starting to hear rumblings that we could see as much as two to three inches of rain next week.  This will not be a welcome sight for the combines but will allow trains to catch up a bit, so not all will be lost.  Basis levels for both corn and beans remain steady, but as bean harvest slows basis will likely appreciate.  Corn yields that we are hearing are absolutely astounding. Almost all the reports are above 200 bushels per acre, which is fantastic.  That will likely not be bullish corn basis when the meat of harvest arrives.  From the sounds of things, there is a lot of wheat that has been planted and as I type this, we can lock in $7.25 for next summer delivery.  If you don’t have anything sold this is a good price to get started, and if you do have some sales on this price isn’t a bad place to put some additional sales on and bring up the all-around average.  I want to take the time to thank you for your business and hope you all have a happy and safe weekend.
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It was a good week for export sales as demand picks up again, exporters sold 105.8 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending October 14, along with 50.1 million bushels of corn.  There were no flash sales to China yesterday.  Bean sales are 35% behind last year at this time, corn sales are about even, but will have to continue to make USDA’s predicted numbers. That may be a problem, due to poor hog feeding margins in China, along with decreased poultry feed demand.

The fertilizer situation risks a shift toward soybeans, wheat, and cotton next spring, while the glyphosate problem if it develops, may create difficulties for soybeans as well.  I have been asking ones that planted wheat last year if they planted again and so far, four out of eleven said they were not planting wheat this year.  If you did, keep an eye on the contract price it is over $7, get target orders in place.  
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Good afternoon! Mechanicsburg harvest progress had another great week with soybeans approximately 87% complete, three points ahead of average. Corn for the area is near 35% complete, one point ahead of the average for this week of the year. If the rain forecasted for Sunday and Monday holds, next week’s pace will surely delay progress.

Soybeans had 5 straight days of gains before taking a setback on Thursday and today. However, soybean futures are still up for the week by a few cents as of midday. Corn has gained a dime in the past week, but what is the biggest winner with next July futures gaining over 15 cents. The contract high hit earlier this morning with our July delivery bid reaching $7.30. If you planted wheat, please consider managing your risk by covering your costs and locking in profits.

Another bid to consider is Fall 2022 soybeans. With whispers of customers possibly increasing soybean acres next spring due to higher corn input costs, it may be worthwhile to place target offers for fall beans. If there is a chance at a larger soybean production number next year, locking in $12 beans out of the field might not be a bad idea. Please continue to be safe out there!
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Good afternoon, another week of harvest is almost behind us. We received around .6 tenths of rain late yesterday and into the early evening. That put the brakes on bean harvest as well as corn but we still are seeing more beans than corn here in the NE part of the state. My best guess is that soybean harvest is somewhere around 75% to 80% completed. Corn is somewhere in the 15% range. The markets seem to have maybe reached the harvest lows and have bounced off those lows over the last week or so. For now it appears that traders are content where we have settled out in corn & beans. Wheat is a little more of a story as we continue to inch higher. There is some concern about both US stocks as well as world stocks and that has been beneficial to the wheat market. July-22 wheat has hit a new high today. So wheat is the one thing that seems to have some strength to it. The last thing I would like to briefly talk about this week is the barge situation at East Liverpool. We have plenty of barges booked to load now through Nov but with what happened at the Gulf with hurricane Ida back in August that has created some issues getting barges. The ship loading terminals at the Gulf are only back to loading between 55% to 75% capacity and also a number of barges sustained damage to them and are in the process of getting repaired and that all translates to a backup of getting barges loaded to come back north with product which is making it somewhat difficult to get barges when we need them. Hopefully that will continue to get better over time. Have a great weekend.
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Harvest progress continues! We’ve passed the halfway mark on corn harvest and are nearly done with beans at 90% completed. We’ve had anywhere from a .10 to .30 tenths of rain over the last couple days with heavy rains expected on Sunday into Monday. Some guys were still able to shell corn this morning, but space is becoming a hot commodity throughout the region. We’re continuing to do the best we can to keep our branches open, so please be patient!

Markets have made a slight recovery from last week’s lows. With Russia and China limiting fertilizer exports and continued increases among input costs, consider minimizing your price risk as you book inputs, by selling corn and beans for next year. We’re close to $5.00 cash corn for Oct-Nov 2022! Wheat also made another jump higher today and with 59% of the winter wheat crop planted, I would suggest locking in some $7.25 cash wheat today if you haven’t already. Feel free to reach out with questions on your marketing plans! Have a great weekend everyone!
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Heritage Cooperative
59 Greif Parkway
Delaware, OH 43015

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