Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/23/2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/23/2020

Oct 23, 2020

The futures markets continued to improve this week, bolstered by fund buying and concerns of South America planting delays. Corn prices were driven up fifteen cents on the week and soybeans an additional twenty-five due to the widespread dryness in much of the southern hemisphere growing region and the potential effect of a La Nina weather event. Much of the Midwest continues to see good harvest activity with beans projected at 75% complete and corn not far behind at 60% as of last Sunday. Ohio continues to struggle with harvest as weather delays have us at 65% complete on beans and 24% on corn.  The grain markets still have upside potential if La Nina continues to threaten production in South America over the next six months, especially when combined with ongoing dryness in the Black Sea Region and the news of historical Chinese demand. Next Tuesday; November 10, is our next USDA Supply/Demand report and we anticipate additional adjustments with a possible reduction in 2020-21 carry-over stocks. The local basis continues to improve as harvest delays due to weather, local demand, and big export numbers have given us support. Please continue to be safe and have a great harvest week.

Good Afternoon. Harvest progress that was released on Monday afternoon had corn harvest in Ohio at 24% complete.  With the weather this week I would not expect that number to show much progress on this coming Monday’s report.  The corn futures market has had another good week, and now approaching levels not seen in over 15 months.  With that being said we did see a pickup in farmer selling this week. The weather delays and good demand are keeping a floor under basis levels and making spreads narrow taking the carry out of the market.  From what I can see next week’s weather looks to have plenty of rain chances once again. With what we are seeing in an excessive amount of rain there are part of the Black Sea region, South America, and Europe experiencing excessively dry conditions.  Look for more wheat production cuts in these areas.  This coupled with Algeria and Egypt tendering for wheat this week pushed the wheat market to new highs.  

In the Monday night-harvest progress report we did see that Ohio soybeans were 65% harvested.  This confirmed a good week of soybean harvesting as that was a 16% jump over the prior week. The soybean market also continued to push higher.  We are now at a level not seen in need for a few years.  Good demand both domestic and internationally is keeping the basis firming as well.  Farmers continue to reward the market by a steady stream of selling as the market has continued to work higher.  It does look like Brazil does have some rain chances in the forecast, but will they develop? We shall see, but in the meantime we need to remember we have levels on all three of our major cash crops that nice profits can be made.    

Support for corn this week came from rumors of China increasing its import quotas after the election, even though buying before the weekend has been limited so far.  Wheat prices are increasing because of weather issues in Russia and the U.S. Southern Plains.  Russia forecast remains dry but the Southern Plains may see rains in the coming days. 

Bean harvest has been delayed, I still see a lot of beans out there.  Some have switched over to corn but most are waiting for the beans to dry back down and are making space in their bins for the next go around.   

Good afternoon! This week brought a lot of rainfall, but also higher prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat. On Tuesday, corn hit $4.00 and new crop wheat hit $6.00 here within Region 2. Fortunately for Brazil, rain was and still is in the forecast until Saturday for areas that need some moisture for planting. China has 10 million metric tons of corn booked from the United States. 7 million of that has already been imported. The United States has hit record high sales, with 55% of sales being to China. Some of the U.S. corn belt is experiencing dry conditions. 2/3 of Iowa is moderately dry. Southern Illinois and most of Indiana are extremely dry. On Tuesday of this week, StoneX reported that 24% of Ohio’s corn had been harvested and 65% of soybeans had been harvested.

Well, harvest was getting cranked up last weekend and then we get 2 to 3 inches of rain in my area.  We started back into corn harvest yesterday afternoon but it looks like we will get rained out this weekend again.  

Corn harvest is as slow as we have ever seen, it is keeping end-user basis well supported as they need corn every day.  Corn futures continue to work higher and are at their highest level that we have seen in some time.  With 4.00 corn out of the field, many farmers are taking the cash option and saying thank you very much.  We have seen harvest corn move from a low on August 7 of 2.81 to almost 4.00 today. 

That is an impressive move considering we are still looking at record per acre yield and around a 2.0 billion bushel carryover. 
I have had several customers ask me what they should di, my line is when we get over 4.00 you are kind of on your own as you are playing with house money.

Soybean futures continue to work high as export demand is very good to near-record and South American planting is slow.  This will push their harvest back which expands our window to export.  The farmer has been taking advantage of these prices and saying thank you very much as there is no carry in this market.

Wheat hit 6.00 for July 2021 this week.  If you have wheat planted ask yourself how much 6.00 wheat have you sold in your life?

We will have to see what the weather brings as we try to finish soybean harvest and get corn harvest rolling.

Happy Friday! Grains had yet another positive week, even with Wall Street in the negative. With less than an hour of trading left, corn is up 16 cents on the week, soybeans up 23, and July wheat up 7 cents. This week we hit several target offers for $6.00 July 2021 wheat and $4.00 Oct-Nov 2020 corn.

Demand potential is pushing corn and soybean higher with the help of uncertain global weather. Delayed Brazilian soybean planting indicates a potentially longer window for U.S. export opportunities. In Argentina, a La Nina weather pattern could mean a shorter soybean crop as well. At this point, these are what-if scenarios but are factors in supporting the market. Russia is struggling with dry conditions which is helping the wheat market. As we all know though, the weather market can change quickly.

Harvest progress here in Mechanicsburg was pretty slow this week, but I’m estimating Region 3 soybeans advanced 7 points to approximately 87% complete, while corn is around 8% harvested. We’ve seen a couple samples of beans brought in this afternoon running 16.5% to 19.7% moisture, so I’m not sure we’ll see many beans before the next round of rains this evening. Have a great weekend!

Good Afternoon. Another week into harvest and another week that the markets are higher again this Friday than they were last Friday at this time. It doesn’t often happen that the markets go higher while harvest is going on. The driver behind it for beans & wheat is weather concerns. South America continues to not get enough rain for the bean crop and for wheat there is concern about dryness in Russia as well as the southern plains here in the US. And finally, corn, even though there is no shortage of it today or even going forward as of right now it just can’t sit on the sidelines and do nothing when beans & wheat continue to climb. So what should you be doing about pricing right now? Continue to sell into these up markets so that you can raise your overall average in the end. As we all have heard over the years, pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. We need to take advantage when we get a chance and we continue to have a chance to market some of this year's crop at very good numbers. As far as harvest as goes here in the eastern part of Heritage territory, not a lot of progress this week. We had a lot of beans get harvested last Sat & Sunday but it rained Sunday night and very little has been harvested since then. I would put harvest at 70% off for beans but only 10% off for corn. Have a good weekend!!!

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