Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/29/2021

Oct 29, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/29/2021
Ed Nienaber
Vice President, Grain Division
Last week we saw a consolidation of grain future price on corn and beans as the market evaluated the latest USDA report. Even with excellent harvest progress last week, we seemed to have decent price support as the trade has shifted its focus back on demand.  Weather delays in the Midwest this week have slowed harvest down, with bean harvest at 70% completed and corn 65% in the US. The overall demand picture continues to keep the trade in a buying mood - we are up twenty plus cents in corn and over a dime in beans for the week.  Export bean sales announcements to China this week, as they attempt to meet Phase One trade agreement, along with excellent margins in both soybean crush and ethanol production domestically, have been very supportive of the future prices. The local basis is feeling the effects of an excellent Ohio harvest and transportation issues as grain bins begin to fill. The bean market is working hard to find additional support as the southern hemisphere appears to be off to a good start - increased acres and decent rains have sent buyers to other markets. However, the trade continues to monitor the effects of La Nina and the potential weather effects it could have on production moving forward. The next update from the USDA on supply/demand and carry-over figures will be released on Tuesday, November 9. So we will begin to see private forecasters releasing their ideas next week. Please continue to be safe as we finish up harvest 2021 in the coming weeks.

Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing
Good Afternoon.  Well, we did manage to get a day and a half of corn harvest this week before getting rained out again.  It looks to be a soggy weekend with no progress going to be made.  The soybeans that are still out are starting to be a bit worrisome.  The days are getting shorter, and the temps are getting colder, so we are running out of suitable weather to get them harvested.  Let’s hope that we can get a week of Indian summer to get them all wrapped up.  The weather has also allowed basis levels for to remain steady.  The harvest disruptions are allowing end-users to make room, and with ethanol margins at these fancy levels, they are grinding as much as they can.  Corn exports also seem to be more attractive than soybeans which also is lending basis support.  Speaking of soybean exports, we continue to really lag last year's pace.  In yesterday’s report, we have seen that we are behind over 15 MMT from the same time last year.  We are on pace to hit the current export projection, but the hopes of gaining export business are declining as Brazilian weather has been conducive for planting.  They are on the 5-year pace of 36% planted.  Wheat seems to be the shining star as there are worries that Europe and Russia are going to have some production issues with dryer than anticipated weather.  We also have support from the fact that northern Indiana and Northern Ohio are not likely to get as much wheat planted as they would like.  The wet fields just haven’t allowed them much of a chance and it’s getting late for wheat planting now.  Well since it's going to be wet I would suggest that you all go trick or treating with family this weekend. 

Lou Baughman
Grain Origination, Kenton (Region 1)
October turned out to be a great month for harvest, I would say 90-95% of the beans are off and corn is over the halfway mark, 65% maybe.  Overall, yields have been good, corn in the 195- 200 BPA and beans mid-60s range. 

The weather has not been friendly this week but in the 8-14 forecast things dry slowly because of the cooler temperatures.  

Farmers are questioning their planting intentions for next year because of the rise in input cost. Anhydrous ammonia and urea prices are climbing because supplies may not be available later in the winter or next spring. This is not just a problem here in the United States, but it is a global problem.

Lisa Warne
Grain Origination, Mechanicsburg (Region 3)

What a dreary week it’s been! We started the week with 2” of rain Sunday/Monday around Mechanicsburg. At midday Friday we’re sitting at another 1” and counting. Soybean harvest progress was stagnant, but we did make headway on corn Wednesday and Thursday. Soybeans are 90% complete, matching our 5-year average. Corn is 51% complete, 4 points behind average, but well ahead of this time last year (19%).

The grain market has had a great week. Corn has gained about 30 cents while soybeans and wheat are up over 15 cents. Money flow into commodities has increased due to improved ethanol production, corn input cost concerns for 2022, inflation, and global wheat production concerns. December corn futures hit a two-month high yesterday, riding on the bullish ethanol report this week with the second-largest production number on record. Enjoy the Halloween weekend and hopefully, we’ll see you next week when it dries out!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good Afternoon, this week has not been very productive from a harvest standpoint in some of our eastern locations. We have received over an inch of rain here today so far. Corn yields do appear to be very good overall from what I can gather. As far as the markets go we continue to see July 22 wheat set new contract highs. There is some concern about the supply of wheat right now and the market has reacted to that. I think that some of the things to pay attention to in the markets going forward are weather in South America, what continues to happen with inflation. Some say that it’s only transitory, which really means that it's only temporary, but I am in the camp that it is more of a permanent thing. If that is the case I think we could see more money flow from the stock market into the commodity markets. Crude Oil continues to climb as well. Today it is trading around $82 a barrel and that also is helping hold corn and beans up. We are about .65 cents off the low in Dec21 corn and .50 cents off the low in Nov21 beans. Stay tuned in on what’s going on not only in the grain markets but also what the outside markets do in the months ahead. Have a good weekend!!!!

Sarah Harner
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Rains starting and ending the week have slowed down harvest however the hope for a dry first week of November looks possible. The market for the last week of October began on a firmer stance. The need for good quality wheat keeps the prices above $7.00. The corn market became hot and higher on Wednesday closing at $5.57 as ethanol production surges. The millions of bushels corn used per week for ethanol production is up an estimated 10 million and climbing compared to this time last year.  It’s time to start thinking about 2022 plans and analyzing what your operation can afford considering input costs, acreage rotation, and the market.

Here is a recap of the crop progress that was released Monday, October 25. For Ohio corn harvested is 41%, soybeans harvested 70% and winter wheat is 75% planted. This week was the first crop condition report for the young winter wheat crop which was estimated at 46% good to excellent - up 5% from a year ago. Happy Halloween and Go Buckeyes!

Haylee Zwick
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

It’s been a wet week with little harvest progress made. Most of the beans have been harvested in our area, except for double crops. Corn is over 50%, but we still have a way to go once we are able to dry back out hopefully next week. Corn yields have been really good in our area this year, with most averaging 200 bpa and beans averaging 60 bpa.
Corn saw a good 30c rally this week after strong ethanol production numbers were released. We’ve seen new highs made this week in Dec 22 corn, so don’t forget to think about your new crop sales for next year! Beans on the other hand had a quiet week with limited sales until this morning when USDA announced 222k and 132k MT to Unknown destinations. There was also 279k MT of corn sold to Mexico. Have a safe weekend everyone and stay dry! Don’t forget the Buckeyes play Penn State tomorrow night under the lights at The Shoe!

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