Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/30/2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/30/2020

Oct 30, 2020

The commodity markets were under pressure for most of the week as funds took profits prior to the end of the month. The negative outlook was driven by weather concerns that are easing in the southern hemisphere as rains moved into much of Brazil and slowed fund buying. In addition, we fought outside market issues with the increase in coronavirus cases in the US and Europe disrupting future demand, as energy and stock prices took a tumble. Harvest pressure has also added to the setback in grain future prices. The western corn belt is wrapping up harvest while barge freight has increased in price and rail movement has slowed. Soybeans on the week are down roughly thirty cents while corn has lost close to twenty cents. Basis throughout most of the country and especially in the Ohio River market is under pressure due to increases in freight and heavy country selling. However, interior Ohio basis continues to move against the trend by improving due to harvest weather delays, local ethanol and feed demand for just-in-time bushels. We have two BIG TUESDAY’S in-a-row as we turn the calendar, with election day this Tuesday and then the USDA supply/demand report on Tuesday, November 10. Please continue to be safe as it looks like we may have a break in the wet weather and an opportunity to get back in the fields.

Good afternoon and Happy Halloween to all.  This week seemed to be a carbon copy of the last couple.  Wet and cold with virtually no harvest activity.  We have had our chances to sell beans above $10 and corn above $4, and most have taken advantage of that.  Now we are in a bit of a wait and see pattern, as the markets have taken a breather to end the week.  Planters appear to be rolling in parts of Brazil, and some rains have fallen recently to take some shine off the bean market.  They are not out of the woods by any means, but it is allowing the markets to consolidate and prepare for the next headline.  There still seems to be some skepticism on the amount of corn that the Chinese have on the books.  The USDA is defending their estimate of 7MMT of corn imports for them.  In yesterday's export sales report they have 10.5 MMT on the books from us.  Something certainly is not adding up at this point, so we need to be careful and ready to pull the trigger if some cancellations begin appearing.  This week’s comments are kind of short, and I want to remind all of you to go vote.  

We have had a very wet week, my ducks sure did enjoy it, but the next two weeks look clear.  South America also had a good week for rainfall that they were waiting for. 

Look for a volatile market the next couple of weeks, there are many factors weighing in to make it that way.   Covid concerns are on the rise worldwide, Europe is locking things down again, Wall Street is worried we are heading in the same direction pending on next week’s election.   The week after the election the USDA will be putting out the latest Crop Production and S & D numbers there may be many adjustments this time.    

Daylight Savings Time, don’t forget to turn your clocks back Saturday for that extra hour of sleep.

Good afternoon and happy Friday! Drier weather is trying to emerge across Ohio but it will take a bit to get firmly established. According to the USDA Crop Progress Report, last week ended with 32% of the state’s corn harvested and 73% soybeans harvested. According to the chart below, this year’s corn harvest is progressing at a percentage below the 5-year average but is still on an uphill climb.

According to sources, China never imported more than 7 million metric tons (MMT) per year in the last 30 years. However, in the last 2 weeks, reports suggest that China will need to import at least 30 MMT over the next year to maintain supply needs. That would be 1 billion bushels from around the world more than estimated just 2 months ago. The United States may be the only location to import these bushels from if La NiƱa impacts South America’s yields. Hope everyone has a safe weekend!

Happy Halloween! The corn and bean market is trading both sides of even at midday as we close out the week, while wheat is firmly in the red. Both Wall Street and Chicago are seeing bearish sentiments from month-end profit-taking, uncertainties of the upcoming election, coronavirus cases increasing, and improving global weather conditions are also weighing on commodities. This week reminds us of the old saying “The market takes the stairs to the top, but it takes the elevator down to the bottom”. I’m not saying we’ve seen the top, but in case we have, make sure you’re managing your risk by continuing to make sales when it’s advantageous. Thursday’s rainfall here at Mechanicsburg was 1.5”. That’s in addition to the area’s already saturated ground from storms on the 19th and 23rd, giving the area 4-5” of rain in about a 10 day span.  Even with that, Region 3 (mostly Champaign county) received enough corn to progress about 9 points to 17% complete. Soybeans, however, had minimal progress in the region and is about 88% complete. Region 3’s five year averages for the end of October are approximately 91% for soybeans and 71% for corn. As you’re certainly well aware, we have a long way to go yet. Be patient. Be safe. Don’t take shortcuts that could cost you in the long run. Enjoy your weekend and go Buckeyes!

It is Halloween weekend and we are still struggling at getting harvest rolling.  I had a news feed come up from one of my customers and they were finishing harvest this weekend in 2019, not this year.

Corn and soybeans have set back from their multi-year highs earlier this week. Several things have come into play why this happened.  

We have had this big run with very little correction, so we were due.  The bulls have gotten a little tired and took a little profit.  The buyers in the market were not seeing much more grain available to them as they pushed the market higher so why push the market higher.  We also have November soybeans start their delivery period so that also lent to some people getting out as the market was inverted.

We will have to see when and if the market puts carry into the corn and soybean markets. 

If I am an end-user I am very nervous about how am I going to find product to buy in the spring and summer if the market today is not willing to pay the farmer to carry it forward.

If the weatherman is correct it looks like we will have a window in the next 10 days to try to get soybean harvest finished and get corn harvest rolling.

Good Afternoon, this week has seen some ups and downs in the market place. Fundamentally not a whole lot has changed but as we have talked about in the past that when the funds are so long they can get spooked a lot easier and they will sell off some of their long positions. This week we saw just that. On Wednesday of this week, it was reported that with Covid cases surging in France & Germany that they are locking things down again and that was all it took to see the funds start to sell off some of their long positions. The concern is that this will spread into other countries as well as here in the US. As far as the weather in South America goes not a whole lot has changed and there is more talk than Argentina’s weather could see continued dryness as we see the La Nina continue to strengthen off the Pacific. China’s demand for soybeans continues to be strong and the US Gulf is still very competitive in the world market for corn. So with all of that said it’s still a wait and see the game as we move forward. Farmer selling of beans has been very good during this rally. So continue to stay focused on what news comes out and our next USDA update comes on Nov 10th. As far as harvest goes for the eastern part of Ohio not much has happened this week. Most of us have had over 2 inches of rain this week and the sun has not been out since last Friday. I would put soybean harvest about 75% complete but corn we are only scratching the surface. I would put us somewhere between 10 to 15% done. The overall weather pattern looks better going forward so let's hope that is the case. Have a great weekend and we will talk to you again next week.

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