Market Commentary

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/8/2021

Oct 08, 2021

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The grain futures market has traded steady to slightly weaker for much of the week. Most if not all of our gains have come today as news of renewed discussions with China on our “Phase One” trade agreement will resume this month. This along with buying interest as US beans for export become the only game in town. Wet weather for most of the Midwest has slowed harvest down considerably this week. However, the upcoming week looks to be very pleasant and combines will be rolling once again. Local basis has been supported by delays and thus far freight has not become an issue. We loaded our first bean barge this week at East Liverpool, in addition to five 90-car bean trains since last Friday. We are doing our very best to stay ahead of, what is being predicted as, record Ohio yields on corn and beans. The USDA will be out with fresh numbers on Tuesday, October 12 and we are anticipating some adjustments to carry-over figures. The trade will be watching closely to the world stocks to use ratio as Brazil is expected to have record planting of soybean this year. Please continue to be safe and especially in your travels as harvest activity picks up in the coming weeks. 

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Good afternoon.  This week sure was a wash as the rains weren’t heavy, but persistent. No bean harvest to speak of for us, but there were some opportunities to harvest corn.  Early reports show that the corn crop is going to be big, and to boost we haven’t seen any vomitoxin issues yet.  That would be so great to not have to deal with anything like that on back-to-back years.  Basis levels for both corn and beans were steady on the week.  There are still a few corn users that need coverage next week, but that seems to be the exception and not the norm.  They know that next week will be another big bean harvesting week, so they need to do what they can to get bushels covered.  The USDA this week did sales of both corn and beans to Mexico, but nothing for China.  They are well behind last years buying pace, and if they don’t start buying quickly, we are going to miss out.  This is pushing bean spreads to the widest level we have seen in 5 years.  The energy markets this week have gotten a bit fired up, so this may provide a spark to the grain markets.  The USDA will be out next week with its monthly supply and demand update, and they will likely have plenty of changes on the demand side.  Hope you all have a great weekend.  
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Markets will remain in the small trading range while waiting for the USDA report on Tuesday.   This week’s export report for beans and wheat was within expectations, corn was well above, but all were less than a year ago. 

The market will be watching for flash sales to China before the report. Weather forecasts are calling for a warmer, drier in the next ten to fourteen days to get harvest underway again.  News of the Pacific surface temperatures are trending lower.  Climatologists are thinking this La Nina might be stronger than the previous version.  This poses the greatest concern for dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil depending on how this La Nina plays out.
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Good afternoon! This week’s market has been mixed. As of midday, corn has traded in a twenty-cent range and is down about seven cents from last Friday. Soybeans are looking to end the week near unchanged after a 31-cent trading range. July wheat has had the narrowest range of 14 cents and is down about four cents on the week. Soybean sales to China are still behind pace, but they are returning from a long holiday so we will see if anything happens next week.

Mechanicsburg has jumped 15 points in soybean harvest to an estimated 42% complete, which is 1 point behind last year. Corn harvest is approximately 9% which is very near our five-year average for this week. There are some slight chances of showers this coming week, but hopefully, you can get back into beans and hammer those out. On both corn and soybeans, most everyone I’ve talked to has seen better than average yields, some with the best they’ve ever produced.

Monday is a federal holiday so USDA reports will be delayed a day, but the markets will still be open. On Tuesday, we will see the current Supply & Demand numbers and updated crop production estimate reports released at noon. Please continue to have a safe harvest! 
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Harvest is rolling along in most areas as we have seen a little bit of rain this week. 

If the weatherman is correct next week should see a big run of soybeans as the weather looks wide open.

The corn and soybean markets have been working sideways to slightly lower over the last few weeks.  We did see a little bounce in soybeans on Thursday as export sales were better than anticipated.  In general harvest, pressure is weighing on the markets, as we are seeing yields as we thought they would be or better across the Midwest.

Soybeans yields in Champaign County seem to be running in the mid-’60s for the most part and the soybeans are of good quality.  Corn yields are very good if not record.  The quality is good but test weight seems to be a little lite on some varieties.  

I still believe today that soybeans should be sold after contracts are filled.  If you are storing some soybeans in the bin at home you may want to lock in the deferred values for spring delivery.  Yes, export sales have improved but we will need to see them continue to make USDA projections.  
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On Monday the USDA Crop Progress report estimated corn harvest at 29% (Ohio 11%), soybean harvest at 34% (Ohio 22%), and wheat planting at 47% complete (Ohio 25%). This week's showers may have kept some of you out of the fields.  As of right now weather next week looks more promising for those harvesting. Wheat prices are still around the $7.00 mark or above. If you have wheat in the ground or are planning on it be sure to contact a merchandiser to set up a contract.

Enjoy the weekend!  Stay Safe.
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