Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/5/2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/5/2021

Nov 05, 2021

Ed Nienaber
Vice President, Grain Division
The grain markets are trending lower this week as we approach the Friday bell. Both are feeling the effects of excellent weather as the country pushes to complete harvest 2021. As of the first of the month, Ohio corn was showing 50% harvested and beans 80% completed. Most southern Ohio counties have things about wrapped up, while the east and northwest Ohio counties are further behind. Corn prices for the week are trading a dime lower and soybeans are down some thirty cents on the week. The trade is expecting increase in carry-over figures on both corn and beans. This is mainly due to excellent yields across much of the grain belt and export levels that are lagging last year’s figures. The focus in the bean pit is the anticipated increase in bean acres this spring due to rising fertilizer prices for corn production. Trade is beginning to hear ideas that we could see close to 90 million acres of beans planted this spring. USDA will release the next round of numbers at noon on Tuesday, November 9. The southern hemisphere thus far has not seen any negative weather effects associated with the La Nina event that is taking place. Local basis continues to be steady to weaker as harvest pressure, grain bins filling up, and lack of transportation is weighing on the marketplace. We will continue to work hard to keep our doors open as we approach the end of harvest. Please continue to be safe and have a great week.
 
Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing
Grain markets this week started out strong and worked sharply lower as the week progressed.  We will see updated supply and demand estimates from the USDA next week.  They are anticipating an increase of both corn and soybean ending stocks.  This can be attributed to both the slow export pace and big yields.  Brazil is in the midst of planting their main soybean crop and are on pace with the 5 year average, and with good precipitation so far it looks like they will have supplies hitting the world market in January.  There is also speculation that the high price of corn input costs next year will likely result in a large soybean acreage here for the 2022 growing season.  The Midwest will be the Midwest and likely stick to normal rotations, but the fringe area’s is where I feel we can see the most change.  Spring wheat has an attractive price, and so does cotton.  The livestock industry is also another wildcard that is throwing uncertainty into the markets.  We are flying through some turbulence so everyone buckle up, its going to be a bumpy ride.  On the bright side we are looking at a beautiful weekend and first part of next week forecast.
 
Lou Baughman
Grain Origination, Kenton (Region 1)
xport sales for last week were good, leaning toward the high side of the estimates, but still falling behind last year sales.  Markets took a hit this week putting beans down about forty cents and corn twelve.
China booking beans for December/January shipments out of South America weighed heavy on the bean market since this is usually the time they buy from the U.S. 
 
USDA will come out with new production and supply/demand numbers Tuesday, most analyst are predicting a bearish report another reason the markets are struggling. 
 
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon, we are finally back up and harvesting again. Guys are back to running beans again. They are still not dry as of noon on Friday but the moisture has come down enough that guys can run. By the looks of the weather forecast, we should have the beans close to done by the middle of next week. Corn yields continue to be amazing here in the NE part of the state. There has not been anyone talking about sub 200 bu per acre and there are plenty of folks talking about 230+ bu per acre. As far as the markets go we have seen a pullback on all of the commodities this week. Nothing has really changed but as fast as we had gone higher after we seemed to bottom out we were do for a little correction and I believe that is what we are seeing these last few days. It’s still my belief that we still need to pay attention to the fertilizer story for next year as well as the acre story for both corn & beans. I sound like a broken record here as of late but I think these stories could have a pretty big impact on next years prices. I hope everyone is able to make good progress during this nice stretch of weather. Have a wonderful weekend!!!!
 
Haylee VanScoy
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
Most guys were able to get back in the fields mid-week this week with some saying they could wrap up harvest this weekend. As a region, we are around 90% done with beans and 70% done with corn. Majority of the remaining beans at this point are double crops that guys are hoping to get off before next week’s chance of rain on Wednesday.
 
An over-bought market has led to corrections across the board. A strong dollar and the release of potentially higher estimates for production and carryout on next Tuesday’s November WASDE has the market on edge. January bean futures are not far off from recent lows made back on 10/13. Brazil offered up late Dec beans this week to China, which has contributed to the downward trend as that is typically a prime export window for the US. Dec Corn has also seen a 30c correction this week back toward the $5.50 CZ1 mark, taking away the gains we saw last week. Consider looking into contracting opportunities that will allow you to put a floor in place to either price old crop DP or establish a floor for new crop 22! If you have any marketing questions, please reach out and I’d be happy to help. Have a great weekend and please remember to stay safe as you finish up harvest!
 


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