Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/19/2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/19/2021

Nov 12, 2021

Ed Nienaber
Vice President, Grain Division
The grain markets have shown great resilience this week as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Corn for the week has traded in a sideways pattern and is down a nickel coming into Friday. While soybeans have found buyers as continued export trade announcements this week, excellent crush margins and strength in both oil and meal futures have soybeans up thirty cents for the week. Transportation issues continue to weigh on the basis as we attempt to create space to finish up harvest. We are beginning to see some signs of improvement and I would expect basis improvement as we move into early December. All commodity markets will be closed next Thursday for Thanksgiving and our next update will be the first Friday in December. Hopefully, you will be able to enjoy the upcoming holiday with family and friends. Please continue to be safe and have a wonderful week.

Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing

Good afternoon.  I can’t believe it’s the week before Thanksgiving.  I know I have said this repeatedly, but where has the month gone?  We are on the tail end of harvest and maybe just a bit ahead of where we are normally.  In true fashion of large crops, there were some stressful moments.  Now that the end is approaching, and we look back we do have a lot to be thankful for.  The crops were great yielding and attractive prices are allowing for a good year, next year may be a different scenario though.  As harvest wraps up, we are seeing basis levels rebound as the ethanol makers are focusing their attention on bridging the gap to new year’s.  With attractive margins, they grinding to the max and need to find replacement bushels.  Soybean crushers are experiencing the same thing.  Crushing margins are fantastic, but they have space that needs filled before the new year arrives.  We do have a lot to be thankful for and I surely hope that you and your families have a Happy Thanksgiving.
Lou Baughman
Grain Origination, Kenton (Region 1)
The weather looks favorable for finishing this year's corn harvest with almost all to be done by Thanksgiving next week. 

The trend continues upward for December corn with large ethanol margins providing support.  Thanks to growing demand for renewable forms of diesel, soybeans have become an energy asset as well as a crucial source of feed.  Wheat still leading on a strong global outlook and soybeans higher as well, looking for any evidence of Chinese buying. No USDA flash sales were reported today, but weekly sales/ shipments/ inspections have been strong and need to keep some decent motion into the holidays. 

Lisa Warne
Grain Origination, Mechanicsburg (Region 3)

Happy Friday! It’s been a challenging weather week for the last couple dozen customers trying to finish harvest. Just when field conditions were good enough to run, we got another half-inch of rain Wednesday night. The tail end of harvest creates a complex puzzle with weather and tight space, but we’ll get through it together like we always do.

The grain market had a great rally on Wednesday, with Dec corn futures nearing two-week highs. They’ve since set back and look to close out the week down about a nickel from last Friday. Jan soybean futures are up about 20 cents on the week. While export sales and shipments continue to disappoint, domestic use has been excellent. Ethanol demand and bean crush are both seeing high numbers. Wheat is also up on the week with global supply concerns. Customers were able to lock in $8+ wheat contracts for July 2022 delivery.

This is our last commentary before Thanksgiving, so I want to take a moment to wish you and your family a happy holiday. Not only are we thankful for your business, but I am thankful for the friendly working relationship I have with many of you. Enjoy your turkey and dressing and especially the time with family!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon, this week brought a roller coaster ride in the markets. But it looks like when we close today that we will be close to where we started the week. Harvest continues to chug along over here in the NE part of the state. The area that is having the hardest time getting acres harvested is our New Philly market. Yields are great and most elevators are having trouble moving product to keep making space. The markets continue to stay well supported at these current levels. There are 2 different opinions in the marketplace today about the inflation story. The first is that it is transitory which means that some think that this inflation is temporary. Others feel that inflation is here to stay and that the Fed will have to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. I lean that the inflation story is here to stay for some time and interest rates will need to rise. If that is the case I believe we will see some outside money flow from the stock market into the commodities which will be used as a hedge against inflation. So in the end that would be supportive for the grain markets. That’s not to say that fundamentals still won’t play a roll in the markets but it does help keep the markets supported. Lastly, I would like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. I know that all of us at times can look at the negative aspects around us but please remember that we all have much to be thankful for and that the good Lord has blessed us more than we deserve. So from me to all of you I wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving!!!!!

Sarah Harner
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

This week the market excitement was on Wednesday hitting higher across all markets. January 2022 soybean futures closed 25 cents in the green at $12.77. July 22 cash wheat prices reached $8.00+ this week. Harvest progress in the area is in the final stages of wrapping up. Locally there’s been moderate rainfall in the middle of the week that has lowered the abnormally high temperatures we had before the precipitation. Globally Brazil received some decent rainfall late this week. On the other Argentina has been dry this week and looks to continue in that pattern into next week. Currently, trading is mixed across all markets. Generalized numbers when thinking new crop delivery and contracting we currently have fall Soybeans above $12.00, Corn $5.00+ and July delivery wheat floating around $8.00. Keep into consideration the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday hours specific to the locations when delivering grain over the next week. Stay healthy and enjoy your weekend!

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