Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/6/2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/6/2020

Nov 06, 2020

Grain futures traded at levels we haven’t seen in over three years this week. Soybean futures are posting gains of over fifty cents on the week and trading over the $11 dollar level, while corn has pushed above the $4 dollar mark. Primarily driven by the continued concern over South American dryness and a La Nina weather event; the funds have been in a buying mood. However, excellent export sales, geo-political issues, our election results, and continued coronavirus concerns have also provided support to commodity markets. The US has shipped $3.13 billion worth of ag-related products to China in September which is the most since November 2017. China has fulfilled 71% of 2020 Phase 1 purchasing targets through early October.

The harvest continues at a rapid pace this week and the western belt should be finished by the end of the week. Ohio continues to lag with corn harvest at 41% and beans at 77% as of November 1. We anticipate that Ohio will be much improved on this Sunday’s report. The USDA will release updated supply/demand figures on Tuesday, November 10. The average trade guess is that corn carry-over will be reduced to right around 2.0 billion bushels and beans 0.230 billion. Please continue to be safe and have a great harvest week.

Good afternoon, and it's Friday once again.  What great weather we have had this week.  Bean harvest was back going full speed ahead.  Many were able to get finished up and move right into corn. 

From what I have gathered the corn did seem to dry down some this week but is still wetter than we typically see this time of year. The bean market continued its uptrend and made new highs once again.  Export sales continue to be strong, funds keep adding to their long positions, and basis is continuing to work higher.  We do need to keep an eye on Brazilian weather as they are seeing some rains and planting is catching up.  We also need to keep an eye on the bean spreads as they are beginning to work lower.  That is not a fundamentally bullish indicator. The corn market seems to be taking a very similar path as the beans. We continue to see good export sales, fund buying, basis staying strong, and weakening spreads.

As harvest continues to roll on we are finding that yields are continuing to stay good.  We are still seeing a lot of 60+ beans and corn in the 170 area.  Completely different story than we saw last year.  As harvest continues there will be some bumps in the road, but they will be short-lived.  

Grain markets worked higher this week as South America struggles with dryness, strong export sales, and estimates for next week’s USDA report come out.   The estimates for the USDA report are friendly lowering yield/production and raising the demand.   A USDA representative in Beijing estimated actual China corn imports at 22mmt, exceeding the October forecast of 7mmt, THIS IS ONLY A RUMOR.

Today the markets are taking a breather and enjoying the sunshine as Ohio pushes on harvesting. Here at Kenton we are still in the heart of soybean harvest only a handful have went to corn.  Call your local elevator for grain receiving hours.   

Happy Friday and good afternoon! It has been an eventful week with harvest picking back up. Grain prices have climbed the staircase pretty high this week with soybeans hitting multi-year highs. We will see how long the rally lasts. According to Stone X, crop progress is behind expectations and yield estimates continue to slide. This coming Tuesday, November 10th is when the next USDA WASDE report will be released. Brazil intends to have a record soybean crop. We will see if the weather carries through for them with reports of drier climates during their growing season due to it being a La Nina year. Stone X, formerly FCStone, also reported that the United States corn export sales hit a record weekly total of almost 103 million bushels last week!

What a week. It is 3 days past the election and we still don’t know who won.  We had an Indian summer this week as it felt like early October instead of the first week of November.

If the weather holds through Monday soybean harvest should be all but wrapped up.  It is great to finish off soybean harvest with this kind of weather.  Soybeans rallied to their highest levels in several years as demand remains good and weather in South America is somewhat questionable.

Corn has been getting pulled back close to the highs we saw back in October as harvest is all but wrapped up everywhere but here in Ohio and Michigan. 

It has been a different harvest for sure but with any luck, we should be done before the Thanksgiving holiday.  Please be patient as we try to help you wrap up harvest as this corn crop is really wet and is taking longer to get dried.  We will help you get finished with harvest as best we can but we only can get this crop through our driers so fast.

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