Weekly Crop Commentary - 12/10/2021

Dec 10, 2021


Weekly Crop Commentary - 12/10/2021

Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing

Good afternoon. It has been a couple of weeks and I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving.  Not quite sure what to think about the weather this week, as we go from snow to chances of severe thunderstorms.  This feels like April in December. Anyways enough with that. The cold weather did allow for another round of harvest activity this week allowing a few to get finished up. I can now only see one field of corn standing between Delaware and Urbana. Basis levels continue their post-harvest rally as good ethanol and soy crush margins have the processors buying every bushel, they can get their hands on to make sure they have coverage during the holiday season. The export market was also busy this week with the USDA making several sales announcements, which we needed before Brazilian supplies are available to the market. We did get the December Supply and Demand numbers yesterday, and true to fashion there were only a few minor changes made. The big one will be in January where we will get the final look at the 2021 crop year. This one is typically the market mover. Many of you are making plans for spring and if you are locking inputs in, please look at selling some new crop bushels. No one knows where this market wants to go, but with these higher input prices, it won’t hurt to offset some of that risk by locking in some bushels at some attractive prices. Just some food for thought. As always have a great weekend and be safe out there.
 
Lisa Warne
Grain Origination, Mechanicsburg (Region 3)

Good afternoon! It’s been 3 weeks since we last wrote and our cash corn and soybean bids have improved about 30 cents. Some have come from futures rallies, but also basis improvements. July wheat has not fared as well, falling over 50 cents in that same time.

Yesterday’s WASDE report was mostly uneventful with no changes to the US carryout. With the lack of big soybean sales to China, some analysts thought USDA might reduce bean export projections, but instead, they punted any possible changes to January. The World carryout did see some minor adjustments with an increase in corn production and a slight decrease in soybean production, but nothing significant enough to stir the market.

During the holiday season, trade will likely continue its choppy sideways action. If you need to sell DP bushels for prepays, watch the market for small rallies or put in target offers to capture prices that may quickly come and go. Have a great weekend and remember, only 14 shopping days left before Christmas! A quiet Friday after a quiet December WASDE report yesterday. No major changes were made to corn and bean production or carryout numbers. Expecting the market to trade sideways as we close out the year unless South American weather turns concerningly dry or we see increased export purchases/ shipments to China before the end of the year. The market is also turning it eyes more toward the US acreage projections for next spring at this point. With the high cost of inputs and increasing inflation, it could get interesting to see where we end up come spring. Let’s hope the weather will at least cooperate (knock on wood)! Speaking of next year, we have seen a little bit of price rebound since Thanksgiving on new crop 2022 corn and beans. With corn back to $5.00+ and beans nearing $12.00 again, I highly recommend putting some sales on the books if you haven’t already. I know it’s a busy time with input and tax meetings, but don’t forget to sit down with your local grain merchandisers to discuss plans for next year! Whether you’re pricing DP grain or looking at locking in some profitable margins after purchasing inputs this month, we’re here to help! Looking forward to talking with most of my customers in the coming weeks! Hope you all have a blessed holiday season!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good Afternoon, yesterday brought the Dec USDA Monthly update and there was no change on our carryout numbers from the November report for corn and beans. Corn prices continue to slowly inch higher and in a number of the comments I read from different folks, they all point toward a higher move in the corn market as we move forward into the winter months. Most believe that with the current prices for fertilizer that the market has to stay supported to encourage farmers to plant at least 91 million acres of corn next year. The other very interesting thing that has changed from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is this. Powell had been saying that inflation that we have been seeing was transitory ( meaning temporary) and he had been firm for months about that. Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chairman was due to expire this year and he had to be renominated by President Biden to continue in that role. That has happened now and now Powell has changed his opinion about the inflation picture and he is now retiring the word transitory and is saying that the inflation we are experiencing is happening and that an interest rate hike will be coming. Now how soon that is we do not know. But what that is doing for the markets is seeing some of the investment money out there shifting into commodities as a hedge against inflation and that translates into support for the grain markets. Fundamentals will still do their part in the big picture but the flow of investment money also helps support the markets. It's been a few weeks since we last wrote these comments and harvest is winding down. The bins both on the farm and at the elevators are packed full and end users continue to have an ample supply for the near future so basis levels have not firmed up as much this year as they usually do by this time. Keep talking to all of us and have a few targets out there in case we have a spike in the markets. Have a great weekend!!!!

Sarah Harner
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

December rolling right along with temperatures for Ohio above average for the month and some rain in the forecast over the next 10 days. Following the WASDE report, yesterday markets remain mixed. There were no changes in the report for corn and beans and minor changes for wheat. Through the end of the holiday season, market movers will be focused on domestic demand and South American weather. As for progress in the field, I am hearing some are still finishing up trying to get into those wetter fields while others are cleaning up their equipment for the year. There will be a lot going on in the next month between the holidays and the new calendar year. Be sure to keep marketing in the back of your mind for the new crop. I look forward to meeting with many of you in the coming months to sit down and discuss your new crop marketing needs. I can be reached easily through my cell phone at (937) 917-4802 or by email sharner@heritagecooperative.com. Christmas lights can be miserable putting up in freezing temperatures however with it being warmer over the next week or so there’s no reason not to have your Christmas lights up! Have a great weekend!

Haylee VanScoy
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

A quiet Friday after a quiet December WASDE report yesterday. No major changes were made to corn and bean production or carryout numbers. Expecting the market to trade sideways as we close out the year unless South American weather turns concerningly dry or we see increased export purchases/ shipments to China before the end of the year. The market is also turning it eyes more toward the US acreage projections for next spring at this point. With the high cost of inputs and increasing inflation, it could get interesting to see where we end up come spring. Let’s hope the weather will at least cooperate (knock on wood)! Speaking of next year, we have seen a little bit of price rebound since Thanksgiving on new crop 2022 corn and beans. With corn back to $5.00+ and beans nearing $12.00 again, I highly recommend putting some sales on the books if you haven’t already. I know it’s a busy time with input and tax meetings, but don’t forget to sit down with your local grain merchandisers to discuss plans for next year! Whether you’re pricing DP grain or looking at locking in some profitable margins after purchasing inputs this month, we’re here to help! Looking forward to talking with most of my customers in the coming weeks! Hope you all have a blessed holiday season!

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