Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 2/19/2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 2/19/2021

Feb 19, 2021

 
 
Alt TextGood afternoon once again.  This week has been fairly quiet on the news front.  No sales flashes from the USDA or major reports released.  The weather seems to be the main factor in the markets.  The extreme cold has most of the Mississippi north of St Louis and the Illinois rivers froze.  This is causing some to declare force majeure in the delivery markets.  This happens when extreme weather events take place for an extended period of time.  Regardless this is taking some of the inverse out of the market.  How long will this be a potential is the big question.  It has allowed the ability of shorts in the market to roll some positions forward.  The USDA Ag Forum has been in session for the last two days.  They are anticipating 92 million acres of corn plantings and 90 million acres of soybean plantings.  This is an increase of 1.2 million acres of corn and 6.3 million acres of beans from last year.  This is not figuring in any prevent plant acres, which we normally have some so is this the highest acreage number we will see for both??  We are in the process of discovering crop insurance base prices, and through yesterday we have corn at $4.53 and soybeans at $11.71. These levels are pretty fancy compared to corn at $3.88 and beans at $9.17 last year.  It will take a big weather event to push producers to prevent plant acreage at these price levels.  Not sure about you all, but I’m ready for spring after this week.  As always thank you and be safe.
 
 
Alt TextGood afternoon and happy Friday! It has been a decently quiet week with the amount of snow we received on Monday evening. Collectively, I received over a foot of snow at my house in northwest Ohio. With temps around -6 on Wednesday morning, I can say that I am ready for spring – my favorite time of the year due to planting season and turkey hunting.

Wheat has been back and forth at the close this week due to winter weather and uncertainty on the amount of damage it has done. As mentioned by StoneX yesterday regarding the USDA Ag Outlook Forum, the 2021 planted corn acres are expected to be at 92.9 million acres, up from 90.8 million acres last year. Soybeans expected to be at 89.4 million acres planted for 2021, up from 83.1 million last season. All wheat expected to be at 45.5 million acres, up from 44.3 million in 2020.

According to Arlan Suderman at StoneX, “We should get updated soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting data out of Brazil today, which I expect to show significant lags building once again. The Mato Grosso safrinha corn crop sees increased risk of yield losses if not planted by the end of February. Crop data out of Argentina showed a drop to just 19% of its soybeans being rated Good to Excellent this week, while corn firmed to 24%. Argentina continues to have a warm, dry bias to its forecast.” Some have estimated that Brazil is 9% complete on their harvest which is down from the 20% five-year average pace. Stay warm this weekend!
 
 
Alt TextGood afternoon! The market was mostly rangebound during this short market week with nearby corn trading in a 17-cent window and beans having a 28-cent span. With thirty minutes of trade left in the week, the March corn futures have gained a few cents since last Friday and beans a nickel. Wheat is the winner for the week with the July futures netting an increase of 13 cents.
 
In the USDA Ag Outlook Forum this week, they announced estimates of 92 million acres of corn and 90 million acres of soybeans to be planted, near the average trade guesses. Combined, that is a record of 182 million acres for those two crops together. However, even with the increase in acres, the USDA also has high expectations for demand with large domestic use and export sales estimates, keeping the 2021/22 ending stocks fairly tight. Only time will tell, but for now their figures indicate the importance of those acres actually getting planted. I hope everyone made it safely through this week’s snow and cold temps. Next week looks to be a muddy mess with some melting and rain. Only 29 days until Spring!
 
Heritage Grower Meeting
 
Heritage Cooperative has worked with StoneX to present our producers a virtual grower meeting. The link to view this prerecorded meeting will be available on Wednesday, February 24th from 11:00-2:00 PM. You can watch at your own convenience and in the comfort of your home by visiting our website. For those who have the Heritage Cooperative App downloaded, you will also receive a notification with the link and password. If you have any questions, please reach out to Julia Naus at 419-349-0546. Happy viewing!


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