Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 2/5/2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 2/5/2021

Feb 05, 2021

 
 
Alt TextGrain markets appear to have taken the week off as we have seen little movement in futures prices and basis seems to have satisfied the nearby demand. As the first taste of winter weather has set into the Midwest, for the first time in over three months the market seems to have found a comfort zone. Exports continue to exceed expectations and we are well ahead of the past few years. Weather delays in Brazil have kept China in a position to continue bridging the gap with US beans. We will be looking for new direction as we anticipate the next release of numbers from the USDA on Tuesday. With the continued export announcements on both corn and beans, the market will be looking for another reduction in 2021 carry-over stocks. The trade estimate on corn is 1.392 billion bushels and soybeans are 0.123 billion bushels. The thought is that this number will be too high and will continue to shrink as we move forward into the marking year. Early indications on corn plantings this spring are not surprising with an excess of 94.0 million acres with soybeans predicted at 91.0. Our first glimpse of the USDA’s expectations will be released at the Outlook Conference later this month. Another week of extreme winter weather is in the forecast for Ohio so it will be very important to be careful and keep safe.
 
 
Alt TextGood afternoon.  This week did not seem to have the luster that we had last week with all the corn sales to China, but we did however make new highs in the corn market. 

The market struggled at those levels once again and has since settled back.  Soybeans have also had a bit of a choppy week of trade.  The market seems to be looking for the next news story for direction.  This could possibly come next week with updated supply and demand numbers.  It looks like some very cold temps are in the forecast for next week, and this could spell a bit of trouble for the exposed western winter wheat crop.  This news has wheat bouncing to end the week.
The cash markets have been mixed this week.  The cold and snowy conditions have slowed grain movement this week, allowing some space to be made.  All in all cash basis continues to be a bit weaker as most have ample coverage and know that when the weather allows another round of movement will occur. 

With corn and bean prices where they are, producers are selling what they can when they can, and this could make for an interesting summer.  
 
 
Alt TextGood afternoon and happy Friday! I hope everyone is staying warm today. Be on the lookout for the next USDA Supply and Demand Report which will be released Tuesday, February 9th. StoneX addressed in their morning comments that the report is expected to be bullish. StoneX also stated, “USDA registered a massive 293 million bushel corn export sales total this week, including more than 230 mbu sold to China; even the remainder of that (63 mbu) would have been a three-year high for the comparable week, however.”

Get your calendars ready, we have worked with StoneX to put on a meeting in the near future. Anyone interested will be able to listen at their own convivence from the comfort of their home. We will be posting the details on the website once we have made some finalizations. Region 2 wishes everyone a safe and enjoyable weekend!
 
 
Alt TextAnother wild week in the grain markets as we continue to see big moves almost on a daily basis.

I find it hard to believe that we are already through the first week of February.  It looks like we are going to see some real winter for the next couple of weeks as the forecast is for below zero temps next week. 

The markets seem to have kind of found a range for the time being.  We have pushed corn to new highs and soybeans continue to run in the higher end of the range over the last month.  I have been telling customers at this point all you have to do is decide when you want to sell on old crop grain.  

New crop is moving but not at the same pace as old crop.  We keep adding a few new sales from customers, but most are in a wait and see mode.  I am ok today with having somewhere around 20% of new crop sold, we have a long way to go and the bias is for carryout to get smaller which will put pressure on making sure we have a good crop in 2021.

Please be patient with us through the winter as we get our inventory moved so we can make space to take your crop out of the bin.  We have some plants that have restrictions on what VOM levels they can receive, as the markets they truck into have some very tight restrictions.  We will try to continue to give you options on where you can move your higher VOM corn.  As I have written in earlier articles we will help you get worked through this as best we can.  We will do our best to keep our doors open to serve you. Thank you for your business.
 
 
Alt TextGood Afternoon, the markets have just been chopping around this week. Nearby corn did set a new high of 5.58 on the CBOT yesterday. Next Tuesday brings another round of numbers from the USDA. We will see if our carry outs tighten up some more. Barge loadings have slowed down some in the month of Feb but we still are shipping barges out. Corn basis has softened some here in the eastern part of the state with the CBOT hitting highs that we have not seen in a number of years. Farmers continue to sell old crop corn and beans and we are also booking some new crop as well. Until we see some fresh news it feels like we will chop around in this area. Colder weather looks to be coming our way next week so bundle up and stay warm. Have a good weekend!!!!


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