Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 3/12/2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 3/12/2021

Mar 15, 2021

 
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For the most part, the commodity markets have traded steady to lower this week. As we approach the final bell today, it appears as if corn will lose a dime on the week and beans will be down thirty cents. As harvest weather improves in the southern hemisphere; beans finally are beginning to be loaded in vessels headed for China and the funds have turned to sellers. However, local basis in beans continues to stay steady to firmer as processors look to buy spring bushels. Corn basis has not shown signs of improvement as most, if not all markets have had limited hours for receiving with supply outweighing demand. We are well ahead of normal for inbound grain receipts thus far. Excellent prices with a moderate winter have kept the farmer busy selling and moving bushels to the market. The USDA will be releasing prospective planting numbers for corn and soybeans the end of the month. The trade is looking for somewhere around 92.0 million acres of corn at 90.0 beans to be planted this spring. They will also be sharing updated stocks in all position numbers so we will see the government usage estimate for six months into this crop year. With the warmer spring-type weather this week, we have seen a lot of fieldwork beginning to get a head start. With daylight savings time starting this weekend it is getting us excited for another crop year. Please continue to be safe and have a great week.

 
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Good afternoon all. What a nice week of weather that we just witnessed, but it sounds like we may get a bit more winter the first of next week.  This week brought on a bit of fieldwork in the southern draw area.  It has been a few years since we have had a chance to get some field prep done in March.  Is this going to be the year???  I sure hope so as we continue to struggle with space.  Vomitoxin continues to be an issue and slowing logistics into Ohio. This coupled with good commodity prices make for some busy days of inbound receipts.  With the inverses in the corn and soybean markets it's what we should be seeing.  The soybean market could get very interesting this summer.  In yesterday’s export sales report, we find that we have sold 99% of the USDA projection for the year with 6 months of the marketing year yet to go. Not only are we selling the paper, but the physical bushels are also shipping.  We have shipped over 53MMT of physical soybeans, and that is 77% more than this time last year.  If we look at new crop bean sales, we have already over 5MMT on the books compared to 0.344 MMT at this time last year.  We continue to see impressive crush numbers each month also.  We have not yet rationed soybean usage.  Corn sales are now beginning to heat up as the focus is shifting from the soybean program.  We have 90% of the USDA sales projection on the books, and that is more than double the number of sales we had on a year ago.  Weekly ethanol grind is picking back up from the Feb freeze week, and we continue to export ethanol which is helping bring the grind back.  The USDA update this week did show some interesting things.  They revealed wheat feeding at almost double the amount of the last two years.  This brings confirmation to the corn story we have been hearing for the last year.  They also raised the Brazilian soy crop by 1MMT, which I am not sure can be argued, but the quality of the grain could be an issue.  The Argentine crop size is continuing to get smaller as the hot dry conditions persist.  
 
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Weaker trade again today.  With the lack of fresh bullish news to keep the funds from further liquidation, the demand story has lost its interest and has moved to the supply story.  USDA’s report had little change from the February report as South America captures the world export business.   Brazil is still behind on their beans harvest and corn planting because of the continuing moisture but has increased the production numbers on both since acreage has increased.  Argentina, on the other hand, is cutting their crop for corn and beans because of continuing drought conditions.  Here in the States significant rain is forecasted in the next seven days in most of the drought areas.  Private surveys on acreages will be coming out next week to get a feel for what the Prospective Planting Report may say March 31st.   Don’t forget to “Spring Ahead” Saturday night. 
 
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Good morning and happy Friday! I am sure you all could agree that this weather is wonderful. I know I plan to spend the weekend outside preparing for spring and getting my garden worked up. Might even do some shed hunting. It has been another fairly quiet week for contracting grain. On a positive note, the U.S. is expecting some beneficial rains for wheat this weekend. According to StoneX, “Corn and beans have another 2.5 weeks to wait until another major shot of fundamental data until anticipated March 31st stocks and planting intentions numbers…” I have been receiving many questions about where our Upper Sandusky branch is on vomitoxin levels; we are currently taking up to 20. For questions, do not hesitate to call our office at 419-294-2371. Hoping everyone has an enjoyable weekend!
 
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Good afternoon! I hope you were able to enjoy the great weather this week. I heard some of you were in the field getting work done, topdressing wheat, and applying anhydrous! The sunshine and warmer temps were the most positive thing this week as the bulls ran out of steam in the grain markets. New crop fared better than the old crop, though both are lower. At one o’clock Friday, cash corn is down about six cents for the week while cash beans and new wheat are both down about a dime since last Friday.
 
China has turned its soy-buying focus to Brazil as bean harvest there is finally far enough along to be hitting the ports (37% harvested as of March 5th vs 52% last year). Traders are also concerned about China’s future soy usage, as talk of African Swine Fever is on the rise again. The USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday had no changes to the U.S. supply/demand tables. Bullish traders had hoped to see tighter carryouts or at least adjustments in domestic and export use, but no changes gave the bears something to run with. News may be lacking over the next couple weeks as the market awaits the March 31st Prospective Planting report. Have a great weekend!
 
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Good afternoon. A lot to talk about but very little space to go into great depth so here are some of the highlights this week. USDA was out on Tuesday with their March update and guess what? No changes were made to our 2021 carryouts. So what else is there to talk about? I have a number of things. First on soybeans, no change to the carryout but it is still little room for errors this year. I watched a webinar this week from Stone X and we still have weather concerns in South America both on beans and second crop corn. The Argentina crop is probably going to be some smaller and the Brazil crop continues to have excess rain and there is some quality concerns. Next is China, ASF is coming back in some parts of China and there is some concern how bad it might get. Not enough is known at this time but it is a story that we need to pay attention to. I also got to see an in-depth look at what Commodity Weather Group had to say about our growing season here in the states and there is some concern about dryness developing over the Midwest during the growing season but a lot of that depends on the water temps of the western coast. Our next big report from USDA will come on March 31st and that report will give us the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings for corn, beans, and wheat. We need to increase both corn & bean acres this year and the market continues to try to get you all to plant more acres. Lastly, I want to briefly touch on something that changes on Monday on the CBOT. Position limits for speculators are doubling on Monday. And basically, this means the speculators can play a bigger role in the market and that can work to your benefit as well as not on any given day. With the speculator able to buy more or sell more on any given rally or selloff the market moves could be bigger. So stay tuned to see how this plays out. If you have any questions or would to talk more in detail about any of this give anyone of us a call and we would be happy to discuss it more with you. Enjoy the sunshine this weekend!!!
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