Weekly Crop Commentary - 3/26/2021

Mar 26, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 3/26/2021
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Futures markets are looking for direction as we have traded on both sides of unchanged for most of the week. As we approach the final Friday of March, we see corn trading down a dime for the week and with today’s price action in beans, it will also be down a dime. The USDA will be releasing the much-anticipated prospective plantings report this coming Wednesday. The trade ranges between 92.0-94.5 (million acres) on corn and 86.1-91.6 (MA) on beans. With this wide range and the current estimates of carry-over stocks; corn 1.5 billion bushels and beans 0.120 bb., the planting intentions will keep the market focused on Wednesday’s report. As we are all aware, China has been very aggressive in the corn market with announcements nearly every day. The USDA has our exports on corn at a record 2.6 billion bushels, with just under 1.0 billion going to China. However, we have only shipped 0.400 billion bushels of those sales thus far this year. With news of African Swine Fever again being a major concern in China, you must wonder how many of the sales will be canceled or delayed until next year. So, as we move forward the weather will no question become a major factor in price volatility considering the stocks we have on hand.  We will also want to keep close attention on the emphasis this market is putting on exports as we move into the summer trading months. We will be rolling out Free Delayed Price on corn and beans in the coming days. Please check with your local merchant for details. Next Friday, the markets will be closed for Good Friday and the Easter weekend. Hopefully, you will have an opportunity to spend time with family and friends. Continue to be safe and have a great week.

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Good afternoon, and welcome to Friday once again.  The Marysville area once again had an abundance of corn movement as the nice weather, and attractive prices came together.  We did have to ratchet back the vomitoxin to 15PPM and less as the space for higher vomitoxin corn got full.  We did hear some report of some anhydrous going on in the area to the southwest of the elevator.  Things are starting to happen, and the next stretch will bring more heading to the fields. The export market was much quieter this week as the only flash sale was for 110,000 MT of corn to Japan.  The export sales report was large, but mainly from catch up of last week's action.  For the week, the corn market appears to be stuck in a trading range and waiting to see what the acreage, and grain stocks report has to say next week. The soybean market is continuing to get pressure as the Brazilian supplies are really hitting the export market hard now.  They are by far the cheaper beans in the market and seem to be getting some of the sitting freight cleaned up.  Soybeans are also eagerly awaiting next week's reports to gain some direction going forward. The wheat market is continuing to meltdown as the Plains States are getting some needed moisture, but not enough to make a real difference in the drought.  The bottom line is the reports next week are going to be market movers one way or another.
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Markets are stuck in a trading range, waiting for the big report on Wednesday.  Corn sales are still climbing but we will need to see more shipments to make a story.  This week, the focus has been on the blocked Suez Canal, as of today there are more than 200 ships waiting to get passed.  All attempts to free the lodged container ship have failed, now offloading the containers may be their only option, this could take a couple weeks, time that some of the backlogged ships don’t have because of live animals on board. 

Let’s hope the problem will be resolved soon.  
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Happy Friday and Happy National Ag Week! On Tuesday, our local community hosted a pancake and sausage breakfast for area farmers in honor of National Ag Day which falls during National Ag Week. Be sure to thank a fellow farmer for all of their hard work and dedication to the industry! Easter is right around the corner, one of the most joyous times of the year, and this weather is perfect. In terms of weather in South America, Argentina rains were light and scattered in north-central crop areas Wednesday and Brazilian rains were scattered center-west, shifting south into the weekend. It looks like there will be some drier weather according to the 6-10 day forecast which will help with fieldwork but will reduce moisture ideal for the safrinha crop (StoneX). Here in Region 2, we are still taking up to 20 ppm on vomitoxin at our Upper Sandusky location. Keep an eye out for the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings Report at 12 pm. We will see what they have in store for us. Hopefully, you all enjoy your weekend and safely celebrate the end of National Ag Week!
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Good afternoon! I hope you have enjoyed the first full week of Spring as much as I have. It has been wonderful! The bears have been present in the grain market this week with grains losing between a nickel and a dime since last Friday. The lack of bullish news is not surprising though and most traders are in a holding pattern pre-USDA Quarterly Stocks & Prospective Planting reports.
The average trade estimates for next Wednesday’s prospective planting report are 93.2 million acres of corn and 90 million acres of beans. Some see the quarterly stocks numbers as arguably more important though, as the acres numbers can and presumably will adjust. Traders guess the corn stocks at 7.767 billion bushels and soybeans at 1.543 billion bushels. The question comes down to whether USDA will adjust domestic usage and export sales targets. Corn export sales right now are at 98% of the current target versus a five-year average of 74% for this time of year. Bean export sales are at 99% versus the 85% five-year average. Will they increase export sales targets? If so, will that make ending stocks tighter or will they reduce domestic usage to keep it closer to unchanged? A lot of questions to anticipate at noon on the 31st.
I’m sure many of you have heard about the container ship that has run aground in the Suez Canal. While the Egyptian waterway may seem a world away and the news doesn’t feel relatable, here’s something to ponder. Some of the soybeans you have grown and delivered to Mechanicsburg are in containers waiting in line to pass through. Your beans have traveled across the Atlantic to the Mediterranean Sea where they will eventually pass through the Suez and then on to Malaysia or Singapore. Considering this seems to bring the ordeal a little closer to home. Have a great weekend!
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We are just days away from one of the three biggest crop reports of the year.  The USDA will give us what you are planning on planting this year.  We need every acre planted that we can find.  When we get to September, we are going to be sweeping or have swept every soybean bin and there will only be around 20 to 30 days of corn usage in the country.

Customers have been asking where new crop prices are going to go.  Today I believe that we have limited downside risk, unless China comes in and cancels purchases that they have made.  If we have planting or production issues this spring or summer we could be in for some very exciting markets ahead.

I am a believer in selling into a rising market.  I firmly believe that you should have some new crop corn and beans sold at these price levels.  The prices we have today are profitable so why not get a start.
We will have to see how the markets react next Wednesday and what the next six weeks of weather bring us as we start to plant the 2021 crop.

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