Weekly Crop Commentary - 6/4/2021

Jun 04, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 6/4/2021
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The commodity markets ushered in the new month with a limit-up corn move on Tuesday. Unfortunately, we have not been able to sustain those levels the balance of the week; with corn up a dime at the noon hour. However, June weather forecast for above normal temperatures and below normal rain fall for the northwest grain belt got the ball rolling. The drought index is showing much of the Dakotas, parts of Minnesota, and northern Iowa below normal subsoil moisture for this time of year. Continued weather issues with South America corn crop that is currently estimated at 10% less than USDA May report has added to the support in corn. The USDA has crop ratings for early June at over 75% good to excellent with 95% of the corn crop planted in the US. Soybean futures have quietly moved higher this week, up some forty cents, in light of basis weakness as processors roll bids to November on cash bids. Both corn and bean cash basis continue to show signs of weakness as processors and feed end-users look to ration demand, bridging the gap to new crop. The next USDA update on supply/demand will be released on Thursday, June 10. One of the most important crop reports for the year comes out on Wednesday, June 30, when the grain stocks and final planted acres report for 2021 crop will be updated. The weather forecasters and their predictions over the next weeks will have more of a price impact than local basis, which always make Monday markets most interesting. Have a great week and please continue to be safe!

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Good afternoon and welcome to June.  This is the month that typically breeds the weather market for grain and true to form we are seeing it again.  This week has been one of those that have had wild swings as weather forecasts change. The western corn belt and northern plains continue to be dry and not much of a chance for rain and above normal temps for the next week.  We look to be on the warm side next week, but we did get a good drink this week and it looks like there are some decent chances again next week.  

Basis levels for both corn and beans seem to be wanting to work lower.  There are some that are moving their bids out of the July futures and backing them off as they complete the move.  With the steep inverse in the markets, the processors are not going to buy a bushel more than necessary.  The export market has quieted down, especially for old crop corn.  The barge market is showing us a lack of demand for our corn in the export market once we get through this month.  One would think that this would also push domestic basis levels lower as summer rolls on.  That is unless we have a major problem as the growing season moves on.

We will get a look at the USDA’s June update next Thursday.  What will they do with the Brazilian corn crop??  We also have the infamous final planted acre report that comes out June 30th along with the Quarterly Grain Stocks.  These are typically market moving reports.  Do you have a plan in place for unpriced bushels?? We are looking at attractive levels for both old crop and the crop that is growing in the field.  We must be prepared for these reports to once again move the market, we just do not know which way it will go.  As always have a great weekend and be safe.
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Not much news other than the weather forecast putting the traders on high alert.  A hot dry pattern is setting up on the northern Midwest Corn Belt and is looking to continue through the Fourth of July.  Right now, it is all about the weather, Monday morning, like this Tuesday, look for a volatile market if there are any changes in the forecast over the weekend. Locally, everything is in and coming up, yesterdays rainfall measured anywhere from .8 to an inch and a half.  There is still 28% and anhydrous going on but should not be a problem to finish next week along with getting hay made unless the weather changes.      
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We are now into summer.  The crop is planted and out of the ground it is now being side dressed, sprayed, and scouted. For the most part, crops that I have seen look very good.  We received a little over an inch of rain in Urbana this week and it came like you were pouring it out of a sprinkling can.  We have heat coming over the weekend and next week, this crop should really pop.

Corn has moved higher since last Friday in Chicago.  We pushed cash corn back over $7.00 early in the week and then backed off again. It seems as if the end-users are finding plenty of corn as the farmer is done planting and can work on cleaning out his bins.  The only real story in the corn market today is the crop in South America seems to be getting smaller.  Not an issue today but in the end, their customers are going to have to find corn somewhere else. 

Soybeans, like corn, have worked slightly higher this week.  We do have to remind ourselves we are in thin air with cash soybeans well above $15.00 nothing happens quietly at these price levels. 

We have seen a little new crop selling when cash beans were back above $14.00 on Thursday night. We have 2 crop reports coming in June, the big one being the planted acres report on the 30th. We will see if the market did its job and convinced the farmer to plant the acres that we need. With this crop progressing and hot weather coming, the weather the first couple of weeks of July will be critical for this crop.  We will need to keep an eye on long-range weather forecast as we get closer to pollination for the corn crop.
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Good Afternoon, another week closer to the June 30th report and we are still on that roller coaster ride. This week we received some welcome rains here in the east. The weather looks good through the start of next week. Planting is all but complete on this side of the state as well. Corn is up .21 cents, beans are up .34 cents and wheat is being pulled higher by the corn and beans as I write this. The main driver today again is the weather with the heart of the belt calling for drier and warmer temps in the 6-10 day forecast. Next week's USDA carryout balance updates will be interesting to see what USDA does with the size of the 2nd crop corn in Brazil. That will have an impact on the markets going forward if the size of that crop continues to get reduced. The next place some will look to buy corn will be here in the US and if we have any trouble at all during the growing season things could get real interesting. Have a good weekend and enjoy the sun and the heat coming our way!!!!!
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