Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/30/2021

Jul 30, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/30/2021
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Good afternoon.  We are at the end of July, as hard as that is to believe.  This summer has gone by so fast as most of it has been a blur.  Be that as it may, we have reached the end of July, and we are still mowing grass at least one time per week.  That typically is the recipe for a big crop heading our way in a few months.  I know that we still have some time to go, but the potential is there.  With that being said we are seeing cash basis for both corn and soybeans are getting weaker. If you are holding old crop grain it will probably not work out well in the end.  It’s looking that old crop values want to converge into the new crop. That means you are looking at a dollar drop in prices in basis alone.  Who knows which way the board wants to go?  Both corn and beans are setting up a wedge pattern going into the August crop report.  Will it be the beginning of a new rally, or the end of the year-long one that we have experienced.  We still have some time to put sales on the books if you feel that you are under-sold for this time of year, or for the size of the crop coming at us.  If you are holding new crop futures positions you really need to keep an eye on basis levels.  I know the August report last year was the beginning of a great rally for futures and basis, but this year has a different feeling to it.  Time will tell, but it is something that we need to be looking at in the weeks ahead.  As always have a happy and safe weekend.
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Another month has come and gone; harvest will be beating on our door soon.  Area crops are looking good and seem to be right on track for harvest. Monday’s Crop Conditions Report showed a slight drop in the nation's good/excellent category, which was a bit of a surprise since analysts were thinking if it didn’t go up it would at least go unchanged.

Markets have been choppy this week going back and forth with the changing weather forecasts.  The export sales report was lacking again this week and have had no “flash sales” from China for quite some time, the tension remains, China vs. US.  We will have to see how much moisture the Corn Belt gets today and over the weekend. 
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Good afternoon! Thursday’s market gains were on a hot/dry forecast, but just as the weather does, a change overnight with rainfall in South Dakota and forecasted rain for Iowa has the market in the red to close out the week. We’re also seeing some traders take profit with it being the end of another month. Even with that, for the week corn futures are still showing a couple of cent gain at the one o’clock hour, wheat gaining near twenty cents, and soybeans are struggling with losses around a nickel since last Friday.

In Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report, both corn and soybeans are progressing ahead of average. US corn silking is 79% (73 average) and Ohio is 72% (59 average). Soybeans blooming in the US is 76% (71 avg), Ohio 75% (66 avg). In less than 50 days, some of you will undoubtedly be running your combines through the fields already. On that note, take the time to enjoy your weekend!
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The markets for the most part have been in the summer doldrums. Not much activity and prices have not done a lot.

Farmers seem to be cleaning the last corn and soybeans out of their bins, as we are looking at a very good crop here in Ohio; crop ratings are as good as we have seen them for several years.  My area has seen good rain over the last 10 days so crops look awesome.  Corn for the most part is done tasseling and soybeans look really good.  

We now have to make some decisions.  What price do we want for our crop?  Most farmers have a good amount sold for new crop.  With new corn over $5.00 and soybeans over $13.00, do we sell more, or do we store and pray that we see the $7.00 and $15.00 that we saw last winter and early spring, or maybe a little of both. 

 I think it will be hard to not take $5.00 corn out of the field if our yields look like they are going to be.  $900.00 an acre revenue is going to be hard to turn down on corn.  Look at what you have sold, what are your cash flow needs, and what bothers you more; selling crops that I could have sold out the field for a good price vs. taking the risk for better numbers in the winter and maybe taking less than what I could have sold for out of the field? We have spent the summer growing this crop and Mother Nature has helped us along, let’s make sure we have a plan on what we want to do with it.
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Good Afternoon, we finally have the 2021 wheat harvest put to bed. The tail end of the wheat harvest had its challenges here in NE Ohio but the good news is that a large percentage of the wheat was taken off before the rains came and the quality was pretty good on that. The grain markets continue to have some bigger swings here as of late. It's my thought that we still have some premium built into the corn market because of the debate over how good is the corn going to be in the good areas and how bad the corn is going to be in the bad areas. Will the good areas offset the bad? We will start to see here in the next few weeks some thoughts about that from the private forecasters as we start to see some of those yield estimates start to be published. If you have not got to the level of sales that you would normally have right now you may want to give us a call and talk about it a little bit. Corn here in the eastern part of Heritage country looks really good. We should know in the next few weeks how the ears are filling out. Beans are more spotty, it depends how much rain you got and when you got it but there are some bean fields that have some yellow spots or the beans are stunted in places. As far as any old-crop corn and beans you may have unsold be careful how long you hold onto it before you sell it. Basis levels have been pulling back some and the end-user will only be buying what he needs to get him to new crop and with basis levels between old and new being so strong when that end-user decides he has enough coverage on basis will pull back really fast. I hope you all have a very nice weekend and Sunday rolls us into the month of August. The summer has flew by it seems like to me.
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Heritage Cooperative
59 Greif Parkway
Delaware, OH 43015

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