Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/20/2021

Aug 20, 2021

Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/20/2021
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The grain markets have traded lower this week as improved crop conditions in much of the eastern grain belt, which is very rare for mid-August, have weighed on the grain futures in Chicago. In addition, weekly Ohio corn crop rated at 81% and beans 73% good to excellent, as well as positive confirmation from ProFarmer crop tour on potential yield, in line with USDA August crop report. This has pressured corn down some thirty cents and beans down fifty-five cents for the week. Cash basis continues to move in a wide range as end-users bid for just-in-time bushels as local demand works to clean up current inventories on both corn and beans. If you have it to trade, take advantage of current basis levels as we have seen some local end-users drop their basis by as much as fifty cents in a day. China has been a buyer of beans the last couple of weeks in anticipation of releasing reserves. This week the news is they are releasing reserves, so market new crop values are on the defense. Many in the trade are concerned that China will not be as aggressive as last year in buying US beans this fall, with only 30% of last year import level currently on the books. The USDA will update us on supply/demand estimates on Friday, September 10, with grain stocks report to finish up the crop year on Thursday, September 30. We will look to see ProFarmer’s final results of their crop tour on Monday, as well as updated crop ratings for market direction. We are clearly in the “dog days of summer” with a hot week ahead of us! Please continue to be safe and have a great week.

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Welcome to Friday once again.  Wow, another week has flown by.  It would appear the theme of the last two days is risk-off.  The Pro Farmer crop tour is going on, crush margins in China continue to be poor, the EPA is suggesting lowering the blending mandate for ethanol, and we have September options expiring at the end of the day.  Option expiration always does weird things to the markets for some reason.  The crops continue to progress nicely, and this week’s adventure took me to Cincinnati.  Once again, I couldn’t find a bad-looking field between here and there. We still must bridge the gap, and some of the end-users are going to force harvest to start earlier than planned as they are running out of corn to buy in the state, and all the sudden vomitoxin doesn’t seem to matter.  So, the mad dash to get emptied out continues, and will take a few more weeks. Bean basis has remained steady with beans continuing to come out of the woodwork all the sudden.  As always I hope everyone has a safe and happy weekend. 
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Good afternoon. Here we are a third of the way through August already! It’s been a harsh week in the commodity markets this week. Nearly all commodities from oil to livestock to grains were down Thursday and many are down again today. Since last Friday, corn futures are down over 30 cents, soybeans down over 80 cents, and new wheat is also down 30 cents. The dollar index is the highest it’s been in ten months, which tends to be bearish for commodities.
Through yesterday, we had 11 consecutive days of soybean export flash sale announcements, which sounds positive, but they have mostly been routine and nothing out of the ordinary. We are actually behind last year for new crop soybean export sales. New crop corn sales are ahead of record pace, but that was mostly from earlier sales to China and not much recently.
Rain is in the forecast for the drought areas of ND, MN, and western IA this weekend. It may be a little too late to make a big difference, but I’m sure they will take whatever they can get. Be sure to keep an eye out on the final ProFarmer crop tour numbers released this afternoon. The western Iowa yields were better than some expected, though no better than average. Have a great weekend!
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Good Afternoon, the markets are taking it on the chin this week. Pro Farmers Tour has helped to verify that crops in the Eastern Corn Belt look to be pretty darn good. The debate is still whether it is enough to offset the bad areas in the Western Corn Belt. Today the traders believe it does and we are seeing the effects of that in the markets this week. Here in the Eastern part of Heritage territory, we have had an abundance of rain this week. It is pretty wet here right now and many places have had between 2 and 3 inches of rain this week. It starts today to finally dry up and we don’t have a lot of rain in the forecast in the coming week. All in all, crops look pretty good and it is looking more and more like we could have a record corn yield. If you need to get a little more contracted now that we have a better idea of what the crop looks like give us a call and let's talk things over. Even though prices have backed up some there still pretty darn good. Have a good weekend and enjoy the last few days of August. Harvest is right around the corner.
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Heritage Cooperative
59 Greif Parkway
Delaware, OH 43015

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