Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/21/2018

Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/21/2018

Sep 18, 2020


Happy Senior Citizen’s Day to all my fellow senior citizens! On Monday, the USDA, lowered the Iowa corn crop good-to-excellent rating by 10% after the “derecho storm” that caused major damage. Early indications are we may have lost 350-500 million bushels of crop production in the wake of the storm. The future prices have not taken notice as we are trading near unchanged for the week. Crop ratings in Ohio are down 1-2% for the week with the good-to-excellent category at 47% on corn and 54% on soybeans. Last week’s USDA 2021 crop estimate expects corn demand of 14.775 million bushels which is projected to be the largest amount consumed on record. With the expectation falling heavy on exports, China being the big buyer, with total exports at 2.225MB and feed usage at 5.925MB, both numbers are record usage. Not to mention we are going to process 5.200MB of corn for ethanol in the coming year, indicating that we are going to see usage at pre-Covid-19 levels. The carry-over number of 2.756MB seems to be asking a lot out of this coming year. There is no question Iowa production potential was hurt by last weeks storm, but the market is currently very comfortable with expectations of one of the largest carry-over figures on record. Much of the market’s hopes are on uncertain future demand. Local cash corn basis is hanging in there and continues to look for nearby, just-in-time bushels ahead of harvest. In contrast, bean basis currently has no friends and seems to be happy to wait on next month’s harvest. Please be safe and have a great week.
 

Weekly-Crop-Commentary-(009).jpg

Good afternoon, and happy Friday once again. The annual Pro Farmer crop tour took place this week. They are finding corn yields lower than the latest USDA report, but we are still looking at a good size crop. The more impressive find is the pod count in the soybean fields. Pod counts are coming in much higher than last year, and if we can catch a few more rains we will be looking at a possible monster soybean crop. Mother nature still has some say and can still add or subtract some yield. Basis levels this week did seem to remain steady, but with harvest approaching we should look for cash basis levels to converge to fall levels. Please remember that we have a vast array of contracting options available to custom fit any marketing plan.


Monday was a good market day with all of the questions about the derecho damaged in Iowa and Illinois. We than started receiving the Pro Farmer Tour Yield numbers pushing the market back down. The official total will be later this afternoon.

Corn (ethanol) demand is horrible but export for corn and beans is at the highest it has been for a few years however, traders feel this year’s crops will be large enough to supply the increased export demand. Local weather forecast is back to the hot and dry, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms this weekend let’s hope it materializes. Be safe.

Good afternoon. It’s been another positive week in the grain markets. The last week and a half has been very active in farmer selling, both old crop and new. Local basis has been steady this week, but we will be into September before we know it and old-new basis levels will continue to merge.

ProFarmer’s crop tour this week showed some interesting yields across the country. Their official nationwide yield will be released later today. Their Iowa estimates are their lowest since 2013 at 177.8 bpa, which is 5.8 lower than the 3-year-average. However, Minnesota saw monster yield estimates at 195.1 bpa, which is 14.9 higher than the 3-year-average. Soybean pod counts are looking very good, as well. ProFarmer has Ohio pegged at 167.7 bpa (13.3 above last year, 1.7 above average). Ohio bean pod counts averaged 1155, up 116 from the 3-year-average.

In short, even after the derecho storm, we’re still looking at a very large crop. Some do believe though, that the market feels like the highest production estimates are likely behind us, so perhaps we’ve seen the lows for now. Have a great weekend and we’ll talk to you next week!

Weekly-Crop-Commentary-(012).jpg

Good Afternoon, markets have been choppy this week with corn & beans having modest gains. Still a lot of talk about how many total bushel loss of corn there will be from the storm damage. The number that I hear most often is between 200-400 million bushels. But that number is subject to change and we probably won’t know the full extent of the damage until we harvest those acres if all of them even get harvested. My understanding is that is being debated with the insurance companies right now. Corn funds are still about 140,000 contracts short as of this morning. At my house this month we have seen 1.2 inches of rain and the last rain was on Aug 5th. We are getting very dry over here. The soybeans need rain here, we have good potential for a great yield if it rains soon but we need it soon if that is going to happen. The pull back on the CBOT yesterday is because of the change in the 6-10 forecast maps showing all the corn belt having above average precip. China continues to come to the plate for beans through at least Jan-21 here in the US. Still lots of unknowns how much more they intend to buy. China is convinced that the Covid-19 virus will shut down both our ports as well as South America’s ports and some think that’s why they are buying so much right now. We don’t believe that at all. I hope you all have a great weekend!!!!



Read More News

Oct 16, 2020
The USDA reported national bean harvest progress across the country at 61% completed compared to Ohio at 49%. The national corn harvest is 41% complete in the U.S., with Ohio ...
Oct 09, 2020
The soybean market remains the story of this fall harvest. We continue to hear additional export trades to China this week with close to 800MB for the first quarter of the marketing year loading...
Sep 25, 2020
The futures market has not been kind this week as we have lost a dime in corn and close to fifty cents on soybeans.