Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/25/2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/25/2020

Sep 25, 2020

The futures market has not been kind this week as we have lost a dime in corn and close to fifty cents on soybeans. With soybean harvest ramping up across the country and many feel as if the Chinese have covered their current import needs, the funds have become sellers. We currently have 35.5MMT of soybean export sales on the books for the current marketing year, with 19.2MMT with China. Total corn exports stand at 22.5MMT with 9.8MMT to China, both of which are well ahead of last year’s pace. Keep in mind we are still $1.50 up on beans from the spring planting price and thirty cents on corn. The USDA will be releasing stocks in all position figures on Wednesday, September 30 at which time we will get an opportunity to evaluate and adjust anticipated carry-over figures. Harvest progress for the week ending September 20 shows that we are behind the normal pace. However, we look for this to pick-up quickly as we have had a good week while next week continues to look cool and dry. The corn basis is still holding steady as end-users in the east are finding bushels hard to find. With the focus on soybean harvest, we are beginning to break the bean basis this week. The delayed price program for this fall harvest has been set and discounts are unchanged from last year. All programs are available on our website or can be picked up at your local Heritage Cooperative grain branch. Continue to be safe and have a great harvest week as we usher in fall 2020!

Good Afternoon and happy Friday once again.  Harvest is really beginning to ramp up, it seems every day someone new is getting started.  From what I have gathered so far is that producers are pleasantly surprised with what they are seeing.  We have also seen a lot of bushels take advantage of the bit of September premium that the market has offered, but it appears to be fading fast as harvest ramps up. 

The futures markets have been on the defensive this week.  Harvest pressure, fund length, and outside market factors seem to be the cause.  We did see an end of the 13-day streak of an export sales announcement to China, and some are also beginning to become skeptical that all the sales will actually ship.  Next week will have our quarterly grain stocks report.  We will see how close the USDA was on carryout numbers from last crop year.  

If you have not yet signed up for our Bushel App, please do so.  You can gain up to the minute ticket application, contract balances, branch ours, grain prices, etc.  Please talk to local branch personnel and they can help you get set up.

A beautiful week to start harvest.  Early beans are rolling in and wheat is being planted.  Everyone that I have talked to seems pleased with their yields considering the spotty rains this summer.   There is a slight chance of precipitation Monday, Tuesday, and less of a chance the remainder of the week but the temperature will be cooler for the next couple of weeks. 

The markets took a breather this week because of harvest pressure and fears of China slowing their purchases from the US.  Traders are thinking China may have bought most of what is needed to bridge the gap to the Brazilian harvest, but we shall see.   USDA will have their quarterly stocks report Wednesday.  Be safe out there. 

Happy Friday and good afternoon! It has been a great week with bean harvest starting to pick up. Small chances of rain here in Upper Sandusky for the weekend. A little rain would not hurt to provide adequate moisture for wheat seeding. As of today, our September basis is starting to merge with Oct/Nov as we get closer to the end of the month.

Mark your calendars for the WASDE report on Friday, October 9th at noon. Also keep in mind that DP rates have been set. Corn and soybeans are $0.06 per bushel per month pro-rated on a daily basis (.00200 per day) and wheat is $0.05 per bushel per month pro-rated on a daily basis (.001666). Those rates are effective October 1st. I have had some customers take advantage of a couple of flex floors with double up options off of both March and May futures. If you are interested in learning more about these contracts, please contact our Upper office at 419-294-2371.

Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable weekend!

Harvest activity continues to pick up this week.  It seems we have someone new starting every day.  The biggest complaint so far is that the stems are really tough but the soybeans are dry.  Yields are all over the place as areas that received a little extra rain or rain at the right time seem to be doing very well. Corn has been somewhat sideways this week as there is not much news in that market today. China seems to keep buying but shipments are slow.  I saw a post the other day that made a reference to an Amazon cart that is full, but they haven’t hit the complete sale button.  Buyers are looking for any corn locally they can get their hands on to tie them over until we get corn harvest running.  A few guys are running some early corn with mixed results. 

Soybeans have been the story of the market over the last 6 to 8 weeks.  We rallied the market last week to the highest levels we have seen in over 2 years.  This week we have pulled back from the highs around 50 cents.  We are still at much better levels then we were a month ago. Several factors have caused the pullback.  One, harvest is getting started and the farmer was selling 10.00 soybeans. Second, the dollar value has improved. Third, China may have bought all they need to get them to South American soybeans next winter.  If I am putting soybeans in a bin I am putting some sort of strategy to put a floor under them but give me some upside potential.  A flex floor or a minimum price contract may be the way to go.  

Be safe as you start harvest as we have seen on social media some ugly pictures of things gone wrong.

Well, the opportunity for $10+ cash beans was short-lived when Monday began with broad selloffs among all commodities, stocks, and energies. The overbought market caved to profit-taking and the beginning of harvest pressure with good yield reports across the Midwest. Monday afternoon’s crop conditions report did not help the chance for a Turnaround Tuesday, either. Traders had expected condition ratings for corn and beans to drop one point. Instead, corn improved a point (61% G/E) and beans remained steady (63% G/E).

We’re two weeks into soybean harvest here at Mechanicsburg, putting us close to 25% complete. Our entire Region 3 area, which includes Urbana, is approximately 15% harvested. Most of the mature beans have been coming in very dry, sub-12% moisture. The yields are all over the board depending on which direction you drive from Mechanicsburg. Reports are anywhere from 40s to 70 bpa. Some early corn is being run, but we’ve yet to see the first load brought to town. As things really get rolling, I want to remind you all to be safe, take your time, and be conscious of your surroundings – we want you to have a successful harvest!

Good afternoon, this week started off with what I talked about in last weeks comments. The soybean markets did not get enough bullish news to keep the funds engaged and we have seen soybeans pullback this week and some profit-taking going on. We saw a high of 10.46 on the CBOT last Friday and currently as I write this Nov beans are at 10.04. That’s .42 cents off the highs in a week’s time. Depending where you are percentage-wise on your sales of this year’s beans I might still consider doing some more contracting on this drop. I know that can be hard to do at times but we are still way higher than we were back at the start of the summer. Give us a call and we can talk about it with you. Harvest is just starting here in NE Ohio, not a lot of beans have been cut yet. The yields have been all over the place depending when and where that you got rain. I have heard of some 40-bushel yields as well as some 70-bushel beans. Time will tell. We are to stay warm through this weekend and then cool off next week with some scattered chances of rains. Give us a call if you would like to talk about the markets more in-depth. Have a nice weekend!!!!

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