Market Commentary > Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/9/2020

Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/9/2020

Oct 09, 2020

The soybean market remains the story of this fall harvest. We continue to hear additional export trades to China this week with close to 800MB for the first quarter of the marketing year loading. The market is now calling it “The China Great Grain Robbery”, as it has taken us all by surprise since mid-August. As of midday on Thursday, we are trading 40 cents higher on the week since the bullish stocks report last week. Corn has been pulled along by the aggressive positive move in the bean market, but only up a dime on the week. The bean story found additional fund buying this week as stories continued out of Brazil that dryness is causing delays in plantings. In addition, there are talks of a possible LA NINA weather event for the southern hemisphere this year. The fund buying in the nearby bean futures are at historical levels and currently, is the fuel behind the fire. Nearby soybean basis continues to stay firm as the market works to get beans to load-out ports for export. Corn basis is holding steady as end-users work to meet nearby demand with most farmers busy harvesting soybeans. Early indications are bean yields are coming in better than expected and we look for harvest in Ohio to be 40% completed by the weekend. Corn harvest is running well behind normal and looks to be around 10-15% in the books. USDA releases the latest supply/demand numbers on Friday at noon and my colleagues will fill you in with all the information. Should see some more fireworks. Have a great harvest week and continue to be safe.

Good Afternoon.  The forecast proved as good as was advertised last week.  What a beautiful week we have had.  Sounds like we will be seeing some precipitation from Hurricane Delta for the last half of the weekend.  Harvest is in full swing and we are seeing some really good numbers in our area. Early indications seem to be better than what was thought.  

We got an updated supply and demand report from the USDA this afternoon and from the sounds of what they reported we are going to be needing the extra beans.  They implemented the lower incoming stocks number that was used in the Sept 1 grain stocks. They also increased exports by another 75 million bushels taking our ending stocks for this year to 290 million bushels.  For corn, they implemented the reduced carry in number, lowered yield by one-tenth of a bushel, and made some minor adjustments to domestic usage. This will take our ending stocks for this year to 2.167 billion bushels.

The USDA has done it again, lowering the carryout on corn to 2.167 from 2.503 last month, beans .290 from .460, and wheat .883 from .925. World carryout also shrank in the corn and beans but gained 2mmt. We are at a record sale of beans, 22.1 mmt, mostly to China.  

This week beans have been rolling in and getting very dry. There are still many green beans out there and needing a hard freeze to get them to ripen. Wheat is also going in, so those guys are wanting a shower or two to get it started, maybe we will see something late Sunday.  

Good afternoon! It has been quite the week with year highs for the grain markets. Brazil is experiencing dry weather that is resulting in a late start to their planting season. They are estimated to have a record soybean and corn crop for the 2020/21 year. Higher prices came about from the overnight trading session and continued to rise after the 9:30 am morning session opened. After the USDA’s WASDE crop report was released at noon today, we received a bullish response that many took advantage of while the opportunity lasted. The report released a bearish corn yield change of 178.4 and an unchanged bean yield of 51.9. Corn production decreased to 14.722 billion bushels, down from the September report of 14.9 billion bushels. Bean production decreased to 4.268 billion bushels, down from the September report of 4.313 billion bushels. Have a safe and enjoyable weekend everyone!

Well, another week of harvest has been completed.  We have seen soybeans being harvested at a record pace.  The problem, if you want to call it a problem, is that we have later maturing soybeans that are not ready to be harvested.  I am hearing the later beans are doing better than the early ones; that is always a good thing.  

We are seeing the soybean futures market do something that we have not ever seen before. There is an inverted market from November 2020 going forward.  The market wants and needs soybeans today and they are willing to pay for them today. I have a hard time putting something in a grain bin that I don’t have price-protected and looking at a March 2021 price that is showing almost 25 cents less then I can get today.

I am almost sure that if I would have told you when you planted that you could get 10.00 for your beans at harvest you would have sold me your whole crop.  We may want to remember the old adage, bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.  

Corn continues to work its way higher with the soybean market.  Here in Ohio, very little corn has been harvested and it is putting pressure on the basis that pigs, chickens, turkeys, and ethanol plants need to be fed.  The corn that has been harvested, for the most part, is 20 plus on moisture; so farmers are not just jumping in full go harvest wet corn today.

We will have to see what the next week brings in Chicago and Washington, it is 2020 so you never know what is around the corner.

Good Afternoon, well we are off to the races once again after the latest USDA Carryout Report today. We just got the newest carryout numbers for the 20-21 crop year at noon today and corn, beans, and wheat came in lower than we were in the Sep-20 report. Corn carryout is sitting at 2.167 billion bushels, beans came in at 290 million bushels and 883 million bushels for wheat. Beans are currently up .21 cents, corn is up .06 cents, and wheat is unchanged right now. The soybean markets continue to rally off of continued dry weather forecast in South America and continued export sales to China as well as the tightening of the 20-21 carryout. The funds in beans have set a new record long this week and the concern I continue to have is that when the day comes that we don’t have enough positive news that we will see those funds turn and start to sell off their long positions to capture some profit and when that happens the sell-off could happen really fast. So I continue to encourage you to keep rewarding the market with some sales to help your overall average. Corn and wheat continue to move ahead as well. Harvest on soybeans is in full swing here in Northeast Ohio and yields have picked up as guys have moved into the later maturing beans. Corn is just getting started and not very far along here. Weather forecast look to be pretty well other than a small chance of rain the first of next week. Have a great weekend, it looks to be a nice one.

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