Weekly Crop Commentary - 06/27/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. I hope you all have been able to enjoy the weather this week. It was a change, for sure. This week was a rough one for the grain markets. We just can’t seem to pull together much of a story to gain any bullish sentiment. Crop conditions in the report this week improved, and the weather sure leads to the thought that next week’s report will be more of the same. The forecast still predicts ample moisture for much of the growing region and also calls for above-average temperatures. This is like growing crops in a greenhouse. We still have a lot of the season to go, but the usual pivotal July 4th week is rapidly approaching, and there is not a weather story yet in sight.

The funds continue to be short in the corn and wheat markets. This week, they pushed corn down by some 20 cents to make new contract lows. Even the soy market gave back all the gains since the release of the RVO mandate for the upcoming years. The corn crop in Brazil continues to get bigger. They are predicting, once again, greater soy planting this fall, as more pasture land will be converted into cropland. We will get our final planted acreage numbers for the spring and quarterly grain stocks on Monday. I am doubtful they will have anything bullish to reveal.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

The markets had a tough time finding something positive this week. We closed down in all commodities every day this week, but are thankfully in the green today. This negative downturn was mainly due to there being a lack of a story. The weather for the Corn Belt has been ideal, and the forecast continues to look that way, as well.

This week, we saw the national corn ratings fall 2 points to 70% good/excellent. Beans were steady at 66% good/excellent, and wheat fell 3 points to 49% good/excellent. Although we have been getting hot, sunny weather, the area received some rain over the past few days, and there is more in the forecast going into the weekend. I still see some wheat fields that have a tint of green. Green wheat plus rains may delay some people from cutting wheat.

We will see the acreage and stocks reports come out on Monday, June 30th. With everything going on in the world right now over East, it seems like the grain markets have been put on the back burner, with weather and the acreage report being the market “movers.”

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

My name is Zach Dennis, and I’m the new Grain Merchandiser for Region 2. I’m based in the Upper Sandusky location and will cover the Arlington, Vanlue, and McCutchenville areas. I grew up on a family farm in Delaware, Ohio, so agriculture has always been a big part of my life. I’m still learning the ropes in this role, but I look forward to getting to know each of you and working together.

As for the markets, we’ve seen a bit of a dip this week compared to last. Unrest in the Middle East has the markets on edge, but once things begin to settle, we could see a chance for a seasonal rebound during the growing season. On the local front, this heat wave has pushed wheat along—I’ve noticed a lot of change in just the past few days. Harvest is right around the corner!

Looking forward to connecting soon. Have a great weekend!

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

It has been a couple of weeks since my last commentary. Things have changed. For the most part, the crop looks good. There has been a little bit of replanting, but for the most part, we are coming along.  

The crop across the country is in good shape. The corn and soybean crops were 71 and 68, respectively, good/excellent. There are some drier areas out west, but they have been getting enough rain to keep conditions okay. We will get planted acres on Monday, so that will give us our next set of information from the government. The funds are working to the short side of the market, so they do not seem to be worried about production at this time.

I am in favor of getting some 4.00 corn on the books for harvest at this point. If you have not sold any at those levels, if we get back to that point, it may be wise to get some sold.  With the reduced soybean acres from last year, I think we should get an opportunity to sell beans over 10.00 again, like corn does something. If we see any kind of rally, I believe that 4.70 March futures are a good place to get some corn coming out of the bin post-harvest.

Remember, the market will not wait for you to make a selling decision. Have a plan for yourself, and put it to work.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Markets had a rough week, with losses across all three major commodities.

Corn struggled to find any supportive news, trending lower throughout the week. Selling pressure from funds, combined with favorable weather across the Corn Belt, pushed December corn to contract lows. With the Brazilian harvest progressing smoothly and U.S. crop conditions holding steady, there’s little bullish momentum.

Soybeans gave up the gains they saw following the RVO announcement. Processors remain confident that the old-crop supply will last through harvest, reducing any urgency to improve basis levels. On a brighter note, China and the U.S. have struck a deal on rare earth mineral imports, potentially opening the door to renewed soybean trade discussions.

Wheat is heading into harvest, and attention is turning to weather and yields. Here’s to a safe and successful harvest ahead!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! It’s been four weeks since I’ve written comments. In that time, corn was stagnant for a while, then started a decline in mid-June that has paused today, for now anyway. Soybeans have seen a 60-cent range, with the Marysville cash price rising to a high of 10.70 before tumbling back down. A few months ago, we weren’t sure if we’d see the cash price above $10. We obviously did that, and then some. But once again, you’re faced with the decision of whether to sell while the price still begins with a $10 in front of it. Wheat also had a very short-lived rally, jumping to a cash high of 5.43 last week. My best advice is to take advantage of rallies when we have them, even if it’s just a small sale. This week has shown that rallies don’t always last.

Weather-wise, the drought monitor shows that the area under drought for corn and soybeans has decreased each week over the last month. At the end of May, 23% of corn and 17% of soybean production areas were under some level of drought. Today, only 16% of corn and 12% of soybean areas are experiencing drought. We’re heading into critical months for weather concerns, so the market will keep a close eye on the forecasts.

The market is also anticipating the big USDA Acreage report on Monday, which will be released at noon. Will planted corn acres go up or down? There seems to be some disagreement among traders about which way it could go. If you’ve penciled out your profitable levels and haven’t contracted any new crop yet, I’d recommend putting in offers at those profitable levels to cover some of those costs. Selling a percentage of your production at a known profit is better than going into harvest with nothing sold and not knowing what could happen. Have a great weekend, and we’ll see you, wheat farmers, soon!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. What a change in the weather this week. Finally, some heat, and we have strung together the most days in a row without rain. As of yesterday, we still had a number of farmers planting or replanting here in NE Ohio. Crops are all over the place when it comes to where they are in terms of maturity. Right now, we have farmers side dressing their first corn, while also having corn only 4 inches tall.

Monday is the big USDA report. Some think that both corn and bean acres could increase slightly from the March Prospective Planting numbers. I believe the trade has been priced that way. The corn funds are over 200k contracts short, and soybeans are about even. If we were to get an acreage number that is fewer acres than we thought, those funds would jump right back in. The weather continues to be a non-issue, for now. The corn & bean ratings also have no issue. There is still talk that we could see a high-pressure ridge set up over the western part of the Corn Belt, but again, we need something like that to happen to get the funds back into the market.

Lastly, today China and the United States have reached a short-term deal on rare earth minerals. The agreement allows such minerals to flow into the U.S. for the next 6 months. Why is this important? There are too many reasons to talk about in this article, but the short version is that it allows automakers to keep making cars and trucks. China controls about 90% of the rare earth minerals. Hopefully, this will help with future talks so that we can get our export bean sales going again with China ahead of the NC-25 harvest. Have a good weekend!!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

It looks like we will be catching a break from the extreme heat, with next week staying under 90 degrees. It will still be quite warm, but it's nearly July, so that’s expected. Favorable growing conditions in the near future, to say the least.

Although, as I am writing, markets have not closed yet, this seems to be the first day this week that we are seeing green across the board. As of Wednesday this week, SX was down by over 40 cents, WN was down nearly 40 cents, and CZ was down 18 cents, compared to the close of Friday last week. Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all up a few cents today. On Monday, the USDA’s quarterly stocks and acreage report is released, so we will have to wait and see how the market reacts to that.

Many areas have not quite started harvesting wheat, with the exception of a few, but it sure is getting close. I would say by the end of next week, there will be a lot more combines in the field.

Wishing everyone a happy, and safe, harvest!