Weekly Crop Commentary - 08/22/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. It sure has been nice to end the week on a wetter and cooler note weather-wise. First night for Friday night football, which means Labor Day and harvest are just around the corner. The bean market really continued its run this week as funds seem to be buying back their short position since the Aug 11th reports. It should be interesting tonight to see where they are positioned.

The big question that remains is, will the crop be as good as the USDA has stated? What caused the rebound in the corn market since the addition of 1 billion bushels of expected production? Well, the price action in soybeans could have helped to create a floor for the corn market, but we do have good demand for corn. It has demand from all sides, strong international and domestic demand. Strong demand, coupled with the possibility of less production, is what I feel has provided the bounce.

Beans are just in demand domestically as we have the lowest export program commitments since back in 2016. Will the producer hold more corn on the farm in anticipation of a rally and sell the beans since the rally has made them profitable again? We should start to get some answers to these questions in the next 30 days. We are moving out old crop corn and beans to make room for harvest and packing away what wheat we can’t get moved into long-term storage. Everyone is also working diligently on maintenance of equipment to ensure we have as little downtime as possible this harvest season.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

What a week for second (and third) chances as we near the end of summer. CZ25 climbed back above its 20-day moving average for the first time in a month, now sitting ~20¢ off last week’s low. Corn also saw fresh new-crop flash sales to Costa Rica and Spain this morning. Beans stole the spotlight, reaching highs not seen since June—up ~80¢ on the month—fueled by strength in bean oil. The EPA’s waiver announcements, strong new-crop exports, and biofuel demand chatter all added support.

The ProFarmer Tour wrapped up this week with final numbers still pending, while US–EU trade talks landed a deal: a 15% tariff on most goods, but “preferential access” for U.S. ag. While Europe buys little U.S. corn/wheat, they remain the world’s largest soybean meal importer, so we’ll see how that plays out. Outside of ag, Fed Chair Powell hinted at the possibility of a September rate cut, sparking investor optimism. Locally, cooler/drier conditions persist, with many Ohio growers wishing for more rain on late-planted crops.

Enjoy the weekend—and the kickoff of high school football season!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

We started this week with the markets following the same trend that they have been, which was negative and in the red. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour took place this week, gathering corn yield estimates for each state and examining the bean pods. Most of the corn yields matched the estimates made before the tour.

Nebraska: 179.5 bpa

Illinois: 199.6 bpa

Indiana: 193.8 bpa

Minnesota: 202.86 bpa

South Dakota: 174.2 bpa

Iowa: 198.43 bpa

Ohio: 185.7 bpa

We are ending this week with beans finally in the green, still moving off of lows from the rally on Thursday. This rally was spurred by an EU/USA trade deal that involved the EU buying agricultural goods from the US, as well as hope in the bean market that the EPA will release its next round of information regarding biofuel demand. It is being said that an update could be released sooner rather than later, so we will keep an eye out for that.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We wrapped up the week on a strong note! Beans climbed to their best levels since early July, and corn rallied back nicely from last week’s lows — it feels like we may have found a bottom for now. The Pro Farmer crop tour put Ohio corn at 185.6 (3.2 bushels under the USDA’s number), though they have historically underestimated yield. A new trade agreement with the EU also added to the positive momentum.

Soybeans really stole the show this week, up 50¢ since the last report. Breaking through 10.70 may still take some bullish news, since past rallies have topped out near 10.75. That makes having 10.60 on the table this close to harvest a great opportunity to get some beans priced. China is still absent from the export sheet, and they don’t seem in a hurry to change that.

Hope you have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! I’m enjoying this break from the heat, and I hope you are too. For the second week in a row, soybeans have given us a great rally to take advantage of. At the beginning of the month, we saw a 4-month low, but the November futures have pushed about 80¢ higher in the last two weeks. This has put our Sep-Nov bid at $10 or higher for our western Ohio locations as of this writing. We’ve written a lot of contracts during this rally, but the question I’m hearing now is, how much higher will it go? The bullishness in the bean market this week is in part due to the EPA clearing a backlog of waiver exemption requests from small refineries for biofuel. Things like this will help boost demand, but is it enough to sustain a higher market in the long term? Time will tell.

The corn market continues to struggle. This afternoon, ProFarmer will announce their national yield estimates, but many of the individual state estimates are higher than last year and the averages. With a big crop headed towards us in a month, I don’t see much upside potential until the yields disprove the estimates we’re seeing. That said, if you have old corn still unsold (in the bin or on DP), I’d recommend selling sooner rather than later. New DP rates will go into effect on October 1st, and anything left on DP will be subject to those charges.

I’m off next week, so have a great week and a wonderful Labor Day. Talk to you in September!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

We missed the commentary last week, but there are a few things worth noting. Last Monday, November soybeans closed 24¢ higher than the previous week. On Tuesday, the USDA’s crop report was released. This triggered beans to rally yet another 21¢ on the day.

The ProFarmer Crop Tour concluded last night. Results across the Midwest have been revealing higher yield estimates than in previous years for the most part. This is except for Illinois, which showed lower corn yield estimates than last year, but still above the 3-year average.

This week started much quieter than last, with market activity lacking excitement. That all changed on Thursday when soybeans rallied and settled 20¢ up at the close. Corn was able to grab a hold of right around 7¢ on Thursday as well.

The E.U. and U.S. were able to settle on a trade agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most European goods this week. Also, the EPA announced more information on the biofuel waiver requests, which are helping drive the soybean market.

Have a great weekend!