Weekly Crop Commentary - 09/19/2025

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

The markets started the morning in the green after Ag Secretary, Brooke Rollins, announced Taiwan’s commitment to purchase $10 billion in U.S. ag products over the next four years, including soybeans, corn, wheat, and beef. That optimism was overshadowed this afternoon by the lack of concrete news from China on a bean trade agreement, pulling commodities back into the red. President Trump did post on Truth Social about a “productive” call with President Xi, citing progress on trade, fentanyl, the Ukraine-Russia war, and even approval of a TikTok deal—but TikTok seems to be taking priority over soybeans when it comes to headline news.

Meanwhile, weather remains a concern as drought expands in the U.S., and we wait to see the yield impacts as harvest progresses. Currently, 36% of soybean acres and 25% of corn acres are affected, with double-digit week-over-week increases across the eastern Corn Belt. We’re seeing some rain in the forecast, starting Sunday into next week, though expectations are only for a tenth to a quarter inch in most areas. We’ll see what impact that has.

It was great catching up with many of you at FSR on Wednesday, and for those already rolling on harvest, we hope things are off to a good start. Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

It was fairly quiet this week, with the markets unsure what yields will look like for US crops. The dryness we are all experiencing has caused issues in later-planted crops that didn’t receive the rain they needed. There has also been some disease pressure in some areas of the country. With yields all over the place, it is casting some doubt on the accuracy of the yields reported earlier this month.

Corn ratings came in at 67% g/ex, and beans came in at 63% g/ex. Much better than expected, considering the conditions.

We did see a trade deal between the US and Taiwan late last night that resulted in the purchase of $10 billion in US ag products, such as corn, beans, wheat, and beef. The markets couldn’t hold support from that after receiving news that the US and China did not discuss soybean purchases.

We could see some much-needed rain throughout next week. Have a great and safe weekend!

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Markets had a slow week with little movement in either commodity.

December corn futures haven’t gained any traction after testing the $4.30 resistance level again on Tuesday. Exports to Mexico remain the bright spot, as their ongoing battle with cattle screwworm has boosted feed demand and limited their ability to export live head. Even so, it feels strange to be sitting 40¢ off the lows with the largest corn acreage since the 1930s.

The November soybean contract pushed above $10.50 early in the week but has since slipped back to trade near the 200-day moving average. There’s also a rumor circulating that U.S. beans have become cheaper than Brazil’s, sparking chatter that some crush plants might look at importing U.S. beans. Hard to say how much truth there is, but it’s at least a note of optimism to end on.

Stay safe, and have a great weekend.

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. The 2025 fall harvest has started here in the NE part of Ohio. Soybean yields, thus far, have been all over the place. I have heard bean yields as low as 25 bu per acre, as high as 60 bu per acre, and everything in between. Yields have been very dependent on the amount and timing of rain received. It’s very early in the season, so stay tuned as we move forward.

Last Friday, the USDA released its September '25 numbers, and that came and went without a lot of fanfare. Carryout for the 25-26 marketing year are at a comfortable number today. Today, there is no reason for the market to run prices up to ration demand. President Trump is in talks with China's President. This is the first step of working toward an agreement between the two countries. If we were to get a deal with China, that would almost instantly rally the markets, both corn and beans. The question is, would we be able to hold that rally? I personally think that no deal will happen between the two countries until later this year, after the Supreme Court rules on whether the Trump Administration's Tariffs are legal or not. I believe China will not give up anything unless they have to. Do keep this in mind: China's economy is hurting, and they do need a trade deal, sooner rather than later, as they continue to pump money into their economy to try and keep it propped up.

As we move further into harvest, I would encourage you to give us a call and discuss some of the options we have available to help enhance your cash price. We're all here to help you secure the best possible price and look forward to working with you throughout the 2025-2026 marketing year. Have a great weekend, and be careful out there.

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

Harvest is officially underway, at least for some of the earlier-planted crops. It appears that there may be a slightly slower period between the crops planted earlier and those that need more time to reach harvest.

On the market side, it was a fairly quiet week overall. Although beans took a slight turn for the worse by late morning today, with November futures down to $10.25. Corn held fairly steady this week with only a few cents in movement.

We are in a bit of a drought here in Ohio. The general report on the beans that have already been harvested indicates that yields are slightly below expectations. This is likely due to the lack of rain in August and September that was needed to finish those crops out. Although it does look like there is some rain in the forecast for the coming week, that could help ease these drought conditions. While it won’t undo the stress the crops have already endured, it may at least help stabilize conditions going forward.

Have a happy and safe harvest!