Grain Market Update - September 2023
Sep 13, 2023
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released on September 12th and supplied some unexpected changes.
USDA started out by decreasing the average corn yield by 1.3 bushels per acre to 173.8 (down from the august estimate of 175.1). After starting with some promising bull news, I'll now get into the bear news. This yield decrease was offset by an increase in planted acreage to 94.9 million (up 0.8 million acres from August). This caused estimated production to jump 23 million bushels and as a result increased carryout another 19 million bushels to 2.221 billion bushels. The market reacted accordingly and December corn soon broke though the $4.80 floor it had been trading around and ended the day down 9¢ at $4.76. Ethanol use and export estimations stayed the same. World ending stocks also grew to 313.99 million metric tons which is up almost 3 million metric tons from the August report.
At first glance, soybean estimates looked to provide some bullish news, however the market didn’t seem to pay this news any attention. UDSA decreased yield to 50.1 bushels an acre (down from 50.9) and decreased ending stocks 25 million bushels to 220 million. Lower supply numbers were offset by decreases in crush and export estimates as they were cut 10 and 35 million bushels respectively. Soybeans ended the day at $13.63 down 22¢. Traders seem to think that there will be plenty of soybeans to go around. World ending stocks practically stayed the same (down 0.15 million tons). As Ohio gears up for soybean harvest in a couple weeks, it will be interesting to see the yield numbers coming out of the fields.
All US wheat estimates stayed the same, while world wheat ending stocks decreased by 7 million metric tons. Wheat markets didn't seem to care, they ended the day up 3¢ but still nowhere near the $8 dollar wheat we were seeing at the end of July. Will you be planting wheat this fall?
Looking AheadHarvest is upon us. Don’t forget to download the new Heritage Portal App! Contact your local grain merchandiser to discuss open target orders and contracting options or sign up for harvest text updates prior to getting busy in the field.
Our summer intern in grain merchandising, Zane Robison, has returned to Heritage Cooperative for the fall semester as he pursues his studies at OSU. He will periodically provide valuable contributions to our grain market updates.