Weekly Crop Commentary - 01/09/2026

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Hopefully everyone is enjoying this warm spell we are having to wrap up the week! We are finally up to date on fundamental export data from the partial government shutdown. The United States captured the Venezuelan President last weekend. Grain markets reacted positively to this news, based on optimism of increased US agricultural export opportunities that could result from this event.

Overall, markets were fairly steady/higher this week, and we didn’t see any major losses. Cash sources indicate that China has bought a total of 10 MMT out of the 12 MMT commitment.

US winter wheat ratings are down 2 points from 62% to 60% good/excellent this week, as key wheat growing areas are experiencing some level of drought along with some geopolitical tensions, spurring support in the wheat market.

The January WASDE report comes out next week on Monday, January 12. This tends to be a market-moving report (in either direction). It may be a good idea to get some targets in ahead of this report.

Have a great weekend!

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

The corn market continues to trade under pressure as ample domestic and global supplies remain the dominant fundamental. U.S. ending stocks are comfortable, and the market is still digesting the size of the most recent harvest, which came in better than many expected. Without an immediate supply concern, futures have struggled to sustain rallies and remain largely range-bound. On the demand side, export business has been respectable but not overly exciting. Weekly sales are keeping pace with the USDA, but with supply high, the market is not seeing much impact. Ethanol demand has been strong and steady as well, but has not been sufficient enough to offset the supply burden.

The soybean market continues to trade with caution as global supply and demand uncertainty continues. Export demand continues to be the weak spot for beans. China is buying, but at an inconsistent rate. Brazil’s aggressive pricing continues to capture a large share of their demand. The weather patterns in South America are not helping. They are experiencing repeated weeks of ideal growing conditions, leading to record-breaking yield predictions for the 2026 crop year.

Looking ahead, the 2026 acreage expectations and WASDE report are being released on Monday. This will impact the corn, bean, and wheat markets as the final production and supply numbers for the 2025 crops are released.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

Happy New Year. We are now into 2026, the year of the 250th anniversary of the US. I am old enough to remember the 200th anniversary. I do not have a clue as to where those 50 years went. I am sure we can all think of several changes that have affected our industry over the past 50 years.

Corn and soybeans have been in a narrow trading range over the last few weeks. It seems the market is waiting for the crop report, which comes out next Monday, to make a move. I am of the belief that this should not set off a lot of fireworks in the market next Monday. If the USDA does reduce yield, we will reduce feed usage and stay around the 2BB carryout. Soybeans are going to struggle to move higher, as at some point the USDA will have to reduce exports to account for a new record crop coming out of South America.

History shows that these markets will move at some point, so we need to have a plan to sell grain when they do. The carryout and new production are going to keep a lid on prices.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

This week has been greeted by mud and temperatures hovering around 45 degrees, with a very heavy rain to start the morning (I had six-tenths in the gauge).

Corn started the week strong, retracing the losses we saw late last week, only to flame out and put us back in the $4.45 range. We just can’t seem to find enough support to push us above $4.50. With the supply and demand report due Monday, final production numbers will be published. Industry estimates are calling for roughly a 2-bushel drop in yield and a 200-million-bushel reduction in carryout. Exports were lackluster, but with the holidays, that’s not surprising—and we remain ahead of pace.

Soybeans have bounced back after a very poor finish to end last week. Additional Chinese purchases this week put them over 80% complete on their original commitment. The big question remains whether they will follow through on the purchases they’ve pledged to make over the next two years. With the escalating global political climate, there are a lot of variables at play. While I don’t expect prices to reach the levels we saw late last year, this bounce has provided a decent pricing opportunity as basis begins to firm.

Have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Happy New Year! We’ve seen a lot of sideways trading this week ahead of the highly anticipated USDA report coming on Monday, 1/12. This report is a 4-in-1, with the monthly Supply & Demand, Annual Crop Production Summary, Quarterly Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports all being released. A lot of data for the market to digest quickly. Historically speaking, due to adjusted production and S&D numbers, March corn futures (CH) have gone higher 9 of the last 13 years. March soybean futures (SH) have gone higher 10 of the last 13 years. We’ll see if these odds are in your favor again this year at noon on Monday.

We are planning our annual marketing meetings. The meeting for Regions 3 & 4 (Marysville, Richwood, Mechanicsburg, Urbana, West Liberty, Thackery, Fletcher, and DeGraff) will be held in the evening on Wednesday, March 18th. Please pencil that in your calendar and be on the lookout for details and RSVP instructions in the coming weeks. In addition to StoneX’s presentation, we’ll go over marketing alternatives and details for this year’s average price contracts.

Have a great weekend, and we’ll be in touch Monday with data from the report.