Weekly Crop Commentary - 04/10/2026
Apr 10, 2026
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. In last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, we did see a bit of a pullback in corn ownership for the fund traders, but they continued their buying spree of soybeans. Talks of a ceasefire in the Middle East this week took a lot of premium out of energy markets, putting pressure on grains. Primarily, the corn and wheat markets. We are starting to see the funds defend their long positions as we are approaching oversold territory. Weather has also been a bit of a driver there, as we are seeing good chances of rain in the plains states, which would be a lifesaver for the wheat crops from Texas to Nebraska. The bean market has remained strong. As mentioned before, the funds seem to want to own soybeans. The natural attrition for more bean acres this year, coupled with continued poor exports and prices not competitive in the world market, is leaving many scratching their heads as to why.
The last couple of evenings, I have begun to see some field activity, which is refreshing. Even heard a couple reports of seeds going in the dirt. Many are watching today’s rain chances, and if we miss, the weekend should be a flurry of activity.
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
Happy Friday, all! The corn market continues to struggle to find footing, down another 10¢ on the week. With projected corn acres at 95.3 million, the market is working through the reality of burdensome supply expectations. Yesterday’s WASDE Report offered little fresh news, with no changes to U.S. corn or soybean carryout and no adjustments to South American production. Overall, it was a fairly neutral report that did little to shift market direction.
Soybeans, on the other hand, have remained relatively range-bound, finishing the week about 12¢ higher. Strength in the soy complex today appears to be led by the meal market, alongside expectations for slightly lower soybean acreage around 84.7 million. The WASDE report did include a modest adjustment to the U.S. soybean balance sheet, shifting 35 million bushels of demand from exports to crush, an understandable move given the lack of recent demand from China. In fact, rumors suggest China made additional purchases from South America.
On the global front, geopolitical developments remain on the radar. The ongoing two-week ceasefire discussions between the United States and Iran are worth watching, with delegates expected to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss next steps. Any developments here could have broader implications and keep headline risk elevated across energy and commodity markets.
As a reminder, next Thursday is the final day to enroll in the soybean Average Price Program. As we get closer to the heart of planting season, now is a great time to connect with your local merchandiser to review your marketing plan and make sure you’re positioned to capture opportunities as they arise.
Hope you all have a great weekend and stay safe as planting gets underway!
Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
Corn futures have been trading with a mixed tone this week. On the bullish side, export demand has shown some strength as US corn remains competitively priced in the global market. Even with ethanol production remaining steady, the market continues to have resistance due to the large global supply issue. South America continues to see perfect growing conditions, which could increase the global supply. Here in the US, as planting is getting ready to begin, early weather patterns are also favorable, adding more pressure to the corn market.
Soybeans have been a roller-coaster ride compared to corn. This is being driven by weather patterns in South America. Even though there have been fluctuations between periods of rain and dryness, Brazil continues to have a large crop, which is weighing on global prices and increasing competition for US soybeans. Chinese demand remains a key factor. Purchases have been steady but not aggressive enough to show any rally. Soybean crush demand continues to be a supporting factor.
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
It’s been a beautiful way to wrap up the week, and it looks like planters are starting to roll across much of the Corn Belt.
Yesterday’s WASDE report came and went with little impact. U.S. corn ending stocks were left unchanged at 2.127 bbu, right in line with expectations. May corn slipped below $4.40 for the first time since March 9 and is now on track for a fourth straight weekly loss, as ample global supplies continue to weigh on the market. Geopolitics remain a factor, but not enough to support corn. The Middle East conflict is ongoing, with face-to-face negotiations with Iran reportedly set to begin tomorrow in Pakistan, even as military activity continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude oil has rebounded, with May futures climbing back toward $100/barrel after initial losses following the ceasefire announcement. It’s tough to find a bullish story for corn right now. Old crop supplies remain burdensome, and with planting getting underway, the market is struggling to find direction. After breaking through multiple support levels, attention may now shift to the post-January report low near $4.30.
Soybeans, on the other hand, have shown some resilience. Despite weaker soybean oil in the past few sessions, May futures have pushed back toward the upper end of the recent range near $11.75. Domestic carryout was unchanged in the WASDE report, while global stocks were trimmed slightly. Strong crush demand remains the key story. USDA shifted another 35 million bushels from exports to crush this month, bringing total crush to a record 2.61 billion bushels, while exports fell to 1.54 billion (the lowest since 2012/13). That puts crush as a percentage of total use at its highest level since 1998/99, even as overall soybean usage has trended lower since 2020/21.
Reminder: Enrollment for the Bean Average Price Program closes Thursday (4/16). Reach out with any questions or if you’d like to get enrolled. Have a great weekend!
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Good afternoon! Hopefully, the freezing temperatures earlier this week were the last of the season. I’m ready for warmer weather and mushroom hunting. The grain markets have been mostly quiet this week. Corn is down about a dime since last week’s close, and soybeans are up about 12¢, thanks to today’s market action.
Grain typically has a high correlation with crude oil, but it seems traders have backed off from that parallel with oil’s volatile activity of late. When WTI crude oil gained $11/barrel last Thursday and peaked at nearly $118/barrel on Tuesday, the grain market was actually in the red during those days. Even Thursday’s USDA monthly WASDE report couldn’t draw much reaction from the markets, with zero net changes to both US carryout numbers and South American production estimates.
As you become busier with field work and planting, let us know if there are price levels you’re interested in, old crop or new, and we can keep an eye on them for you. We can watch “call only” levels as well as firm bushel offers. Also, don’t forget, next Thursday, 4/16, is the enrollment deadline for the soybean average price contract.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon, yesterday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report came and went with little fanfare. Corn and bean carryouts were left unchanged, and wheat was adjusted just slightly. The front month May 26 CBOT corn market is now below where it was when the Iran war started on Feb 28th. I had been telling everyone that the recent run-up in the markets was tied to the spec funds moving money into commodities as a hedge against inflation, and that fundamentally nothing had changed in the markets. And so, with no fresh news to feed the bulls and the possibility of seeing an end to the war, the funds have sold off some of those longs that they had been buying.
Moving forward, as we enter the 2026 campaign, I have a couple of things to point out and keep your eyes on. First, the prospective planted-acre number the USDA put out. Those will be the numbers the USDA will use in May when they issue the first 26-27 balance sheet. If ever there was a year to wonder if those numbers will be accurate, this is the year. With nitrogen costs doing what they have, might we see some acre switching? We won’t know that until we get to the June 30th Acreage Report from the USDA. But history shows that if the carryout-to-usage ratio falls below 10%, Dec corn futures generally work higher into harvest, while if the carryout-to-usage ratio is above 10%, Dec corn futures generally work lower. Beans historically will do the same thing, but that carryout-to-use ratio is 5%.
As we move forward in the days and weeks to come, the market will be watching weather patterns to see whether the crop gets planted in a timely manner. So keep your eyes on the planting progress numbers each Monday when they are released at 4:00 pm our time. As I conclude today, I want to remind all of you to please stay safe as we begin the 2026 planting season. You have many folks who depend on you to come home each night. Have a great weekend.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
Last Tuesday, the USDA prospective plantings report was released, giving us a look at 2026 acreage intentions. The report placed corn at 95.338 million acres, beans at 84.7 million acres, and wheat at 43.775 million acres. This put beans and wheat slightly below trade estimates, while corn was above trade expectations.
The grain markets are wrapping up this week with a fair amount of sideways movement as they look for a clear direction. At the beginning of the week, crude oil was driving the grain market. By Tuesday night, that changed a bit after the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Grains gapped lower on the opening Tuesday night following the news.
The April WASDE report was released yesterday at noon with little reaction from the markets. World corn and wheat stocks increased slightly, and there were no changes made to South American production. Overall, it was a pretty neutral report and did not provide direction one way or the other.
Moving forward, attention will be on U.S. planting progress as we enter the spring season. Weather will begin to play a larger role, along with any updates surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict, as further negotiations are expected soon.
Wishing everyone a safe planting season!
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. In last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, we did see a bit of a pullback in corn ownership for the fund traders, but they continued their buying spree of soybeans. Talks of a ceasefire in the Middle East this week took a lot of premium out of energy markets, putting pressure on grains. Primarily, the corn and wheat markets. We are starting to see the funds defend their long positions as we are approaching oversold territory. Weather has also been a bit of a driver there, as we are seeing good chances of rain in the plains states, which would be a lifesaver for the wheat crops from Texas to Nebraska. The bean market has remained strong. As mentioned before, the funds seem to want to own soybeans. The natural attrition for more bean acres this year, coupled with continued poor exports and prices not competitive in the world market, is leaving many scratching their heads as to why.
The last couple of evenings, I have begun to see some field activity, which is refreshing. Even heard a couple reports of seeds going in the dirt. Many are watching today’s rain chances, and if we miss, the weekend should be a flurry of activity.
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
Happy Friday, all! The corn market continues to struggle to find footing, down another 10¢ on the week. With projected corn acres at 95.3 million, the market is working through the reality of burdensome supply expectations. Yesterday’s WASDE Report offered little fresh news, with no changes to U.S. corn or soybean carryout and no adjustments to South American production. Overall, it was a fairly neutral report that did little to shift market direction.
Soybeans, on the other hand, have remained relatively range-bound, finishing the week about 12¢ higher. Strength in the soy complex today appears to be led by the meal market, alongside expectations for slightly lower soybean acreage around 84.7 million. The WASDE report did include a modest adjustment to the U.S. soybean balance sheet, shifting 35 million bushels of demand from exports to crush, an understandable move given the lack of recent demand from China. In fact, rumors suggest China made additional purchases from South America.
On the global front, geopolitical developments remain on the radar. The ongoing two-week ceasefire discussions between the United States and Iran are worth watching, with delegates expected to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss next steps. Any developments here could have broader implications and keep headline risk elevated across energy and commodity markets.
As a reminder, next Thursday is the final day to enroll in the soybean Average Price Program. As we get closer to the heart of planting season, now is a great time to connect with your local merchandiser to review your marketing plan and make sure you’re positioned to capture opportunities as they arise.
Hope you all have a great weekend and stay safe as planting gets underway!
Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
Corn futures have been trading with a mixed tone this week. On the bullish side, export demand has shown some strength as US corn remains competitively priced in the global market. Even with ethanol production remaining steady, the market continues to have resistance due to the large global supply issue. South America continues to see perfect growing conditions, which could increase the global supply. Here in the US, as planting is getting ready to begin, early weather patterns are also favorable, adding more pressure to the corn market.
Soybeans have been a roller-coaster ride compared to corn. This is being driven by weather patterns in South America. Even though there have been fluctuations between periods of rain and dryness, Brazil continues to have a large crop, which is weighing on global prices and increasing competition for US soybeans. Chinese demand remains a key factor. Purchases have been steady but not aggressive enough to show any rally. Soybean crush demand continues to be a supporting factor.
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
It’s been a beautiful way to wrap up the week, and it looks like planters are starting to roll across much of the Corn Belt.
Yesterday’s WASDE report came and went with little impact. U.S. corn ending stocks were left unchanged at 2.127 bbu, right in line with expectations. May corn slipped below $4.40 for the first time since March 9 and is now on track for a fourth straight weekly loss, as ample global supplies continue to weigh on the market. Geopolitics remain a factor, but not enough to support corn. The Middle East conflict is ongoing, with face-to-face negotiations with Iran reportedly set to begin tomorrow in Pakistan, even as military activity continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude oil has rebounded, with May futures climbing back toward $100/barrel after initial losses following the ceasefire announcement. It’s tough to find a bullish story for corn right now. Old crop supplies remain burdensome, and with planting getting underway, the market is struggling to find direction. After breaking through multiple support levels, attention may now shift to the post-January report low near $4.30.
Soybeans, on the other hand, have shown some resilience. Despite weaker soybean oil in the past few sessions, May futures have pushed back toward the upper end of the recent range near $11.75. Domestic carryout was unchanged in the WASDE report, while global stocks were trimmed slightly. Strong crush demand remains the key story. USDA shifted another 35 million bushels from exports to crush this month, bringing total crush to a record 2.61 billion bushels, while exports fell to 1.54 billion (the lowest since 2012/13). That puts crush as a percentage of total use at its highest level since 1998/99, even as overall soybean usage has trended lower since 2020/21.
Reminder: Enrollment for the Bean Average Price Program closes Thursday (4/16). Reach out with any questions or if you’d like to get enrolled. Have a great weekend!
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Good afternoon! Hopefully, the freezing temperatures earlier this week were the last of the season. I’m ready for warmer weather and mushroom hunting. The grain markets have been mostly quiet this week. Corn is down about a dime since last week’s close, and soybeans are up about 12¢, thanks to today’s market action.
Grain typically has a high correlation with crude oil, but it seems traders have backed off from that parallel with oil’s volatile activity of late. When WTI crude oil gained $11/barrel last Thursday and peaked at nearly $118/barrel on Tuesday, the grain market was actually in the red during those days. Even Thursday’s USDA monthly WASDE report couldn’t draw much reaction from the markets, with zero net changes to both US carryout numbers and South American production estimates.
As you become busier with field work and planting, let us know if there are price levels you’re interested in, old crop or new, and we can keep an eye on them for you. We can watch “call only” levels as well as firm bushel offers. Also, don’t forget, next Thursday, 4/16, is the enrollment deadline for the soybean average price contract.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon, yesterday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report came and went with little fanfare. Corn and bean carryouts were left unchanged, and wheat was adjusted just slightly. The front month May 26 CBOT corn market is now below where it was when the Iran war started on Feb 28th. I had been telling everyone that the recent run-up in the markets was tied to the spec funds moving money into commodities as a hedge against inflation, and that fundamentally nothing had changed in the markets. And so, with no fresh news to feed the bulls and the possibility of seeing an end to the war, the funds have sold off some of those longs that they had been buying.
Moving forward, as we enter the 2026 campaign, I have a couple of things to point out and keep your eyes on. First, the prospective planted-acre number the USDA put out. Those will be the numbers the USDA will use in May when they issue the first 26-27 balance sheet. If ever there was a year to wonder if those numbers will be accurate, this is the year. With nitrogen costs doing what they have, might we see some acre switching? We won’t know that until we get to the June 30th Acreage Report from the USDA. But history shows that if the carryout-to-usage ratio falls below 10%, Dec corn futures generally work higher into harvest, while if the carryout-to-usage ratio is above 10%, Dec corn futures generally work lower. Beans historically will do the same thing, but that carryout-to-use ratio is 5%.
As we move forward in the days and weeks to come, the market will be watching weather patterns to see whether the crop gets planted in a timely manner. So keep your eyes on the planting progress numbers each Monday when they are released at 4:00 pm our time. As I conclude today, I want to remind all of you to please stay safe as we begin the 2026 planting season. You have many folks who depend on you to come home each night. Have a great weekend.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
Last Tuesday, the USDA prospective plantings report was released, giving us a look at 2026 acreage intentions. The report placed corn at 95.338 million acres, beans at 84.7 million acres, and wheat at 43.775 million acres. This put beans and wheat slightly below trade estimates, while corn was above trade expectations.
The grain markets are wrapping up this week with a fair amount of sideways movement as they look for a clear direction. At the beginning of the week, crude oil was driving the grain market. By Tuesday night, that changed a bit after the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Grains gapped lower on the opening Tuesday night following the news.
The April WASDE report was released yesterday at noon with little reaction from the markets. World corn and wheat stocks increased slightly, and there were no changes made to South American production. Overall, it was a pretty neutral report and did not provide direction one way or the other.
Moving forward, attention will be on U.S. planting progress as we enter the spring season. Weather will begin to play a larger role, along with any updates surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict, as further negotiations are expected soon.
Wishing everyone a safe planting season!