Weekly Crop Commentary - 05/08/2026

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
We started off this week with strong markets. Soybeans led the way higher as domestic crush numbers surged, causing some urgency to the 2026 planted bean acreage. This lead didn’t last, though, as we saw corn and bean planting progressing nicely. National corn planting progress was at 38% complete, and soybean planting progress was at 33% at the beginning of the week. The next 10 days are looking drier and warmer for the Midwest, which should allow plenty of acres to be planted and give young crops a good start as they emerge.

The winter wheat crop is maturing ahead of schedule, with 49% headed at the beginning of the week. While this could lead to an earlier harvest, it also opens the door to a higher risk of damage if a frost or freeze occurs. Something to keep an eye on.

Globally, there is talk that the US and Iran are close to a deal that would end the war. This would also open up the Strait of Hormuz, but with how volatile things have been surrounding this issue, it is another thing to keep an eye on, even though it is currently taking some war premium off the market.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
A couple of wet weeks here have slowed progress in the fields, but markets have held their own despite declining tensions in the Middle East.
 
That being said, the corn market has gotten the worst of it this week. Even with continued stories of fighting, “The U.S. has strongly suggested it is trying to avoid escalation and wants the ceasefire intact,” and Trump’s comments seem to back that statement up. With inflationary fears somewhat subsiding and oil prices falling amid continued peace talks, corn has seen little bullish momentum. My main concern is long fund positions getting liquidated and that money flowing back into the stock market, which has been on quite a roll this week. That would most likely force July corn futures back into the $4.50–$4.60 range they’ve worked so hard to break out of. Corn planting as of Monday was estimated at 38% nationwide (same as this week last year and 4% ahead of the 5-year average). I still think $4.95 December futures ($4.50 cash) is a great place to start sales or add more coverage.

The soybean market has been a confusing one. We pushed back above the range we’ve been stuck in, only to give it right back over the following two days. Trump’s planned meeting with China happens next week, and one would have to imagine Iran will be the leading topic, with maybe some agricultural discussion mixed in toward the end. Soybean planting remains well ahead of pace, with nationwide progress estimated at 33% (up 5% from the same week last year and 10% ahead of the 5-year average). I still have to believe the funds will be more willing to defend their soybean positions compared to corn.
Have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Welcome to May! The corn and soybean markets started the week off strong with Marysville’s cash corn and soybeans topping out at $4.95 and $12.12, respectively. On Wednesday, we saw headlines cause a large selloff. Sources out of the Middle East claimed that negotiations with Iran were “getting close” to a resolution. After Wednesday and Thursday’s decline, we are closing out the week on a positive note as of midday Friday. All three major commodities are in the green today. Soybeans are a nickel higher on the week, compared to last Friday’s close.

While local planting progress has stalled due to rain, Ohio is surpassing last year’s rate and the five-year average. As of Sunday evening, Ohio corn is 33% planted (versus 20% last year, 15% average). Ohio soybeans are 30% planted (21% LY, 14% AVG). However, I do know there will be some replanting in the area due to frost damage this past week.

US corn is 38% planted, the same as this time last year, and four points ahead of average. Some notable states behind on corn planting relative to their averages: Iowa (-2 points), Michigan (-9 points), Missouri (-6 points), Wisconsin, and North Dakota (-5 points). US soybeans are 33% planted, five points ahead of last year and ten points ahead of average. Notable states behind average: Iowa (-2 points), Michigan (-12 points), Wisconsin (-3 points).
While you’re busy in the fields, if you have a pricing goal in mind, let us watch it for you. We don’t want you to miss a quick rally like we saw earlier this week. Please stay safe out there, and we’ll chat next week!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon. This week brought a slight correction in the markets. The downturn in corn and beans was driven by the drop in the crude oil market, with the talk of a possible agreement in the Iran war. Investors pulled money out of commodity markets and moved it into Wall Street. We saw the DOW surge higher this week as well. Wheat was driven by the above comments, as well as the Southern Plains seeing some precipitation this week. July corn is off -.21¢ from its high as of this writing, beans are off -.29¢, and wheat is off -.57¢ from the high. The markets were due for a correction, and I know none of us like to see that, but it was just a matter of time. 

Next Tuesday, we will see the first carryout numbers for the 26-27 marketing year from USDA, and those carryout numbers will be based on the prospective planting numbers from March. Average trade estimates came out this week, and corn is at 1.922 billion bu, and beans are at 361 million bu. Those numbers are a comfortable carryout for now; we will see what the acreage story looks like when we get to the end of June.
Lastly, maybe some good news. It looks like the 8–14-day weather maps are finally going to give us a window to plant here in NE Ohio. Below is a picture of what those maps are showing. Finally, warmer temps, and we look to be on the edge of below normal precipitation. Let’s hope that holds true. Have a great weekend!

 

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
The grain markets saw some volatility this week as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz sparked a rally early on Monday. By Tuesday, however, the market seemed to have corrected itself, with prices pulling back from the short-lived rally. Talks of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran were on the table this week, but ongoing conflict in the region still leaves some uncertainty in the market. 

This week’s planting progress report showed producers continuing to make solid progress across the country. U.S. corn planting came in at 38% complete, while soybeans reached 33% planted. Here in Ohio, progress seems a bit ahead, with corn at 33% planted, compared to the five-year average of 15%, and soybeans at 30% planted, above the 14% five-year average. 

At this point, the weather does not appear to be a major widespread concern, allowing many growers to stay active in the field. Here in Ohio, progress seems a bit scattered, with some areas still too wet to get much in the ground. Some warmer weather would certainly be beneficial to those with crops already in the ground.