Weekly Crop Commentary - 07/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
It was a busy week in the grain markets, with weather and world news driving most of the moves. Corn and soybean markets started the week stronger as traders watched crop weather closely. Some areas are getting too much rain, while others are staying too dry. Next week’s forecast is important because hotter weather is expected to return just as a large portion of the corn crop enters pollination.
Soybeans also got support from new Chinese purchases, including both old-crop and new-crop bushels. That helped November soybean futures move back near the $12 level, but the market was not able to break through it. Wheat stayed firm late in the week amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. A shipping halt in the Sea of Azov is getting attention because a significant share of Russian wheat exports normally transit that area.
The USDA report did not bring any major surprises, so the market will likely go back to watching weather forecasts, crop ratings, and world events. For now, this is a good reminder to stay in touch with your grain buyer and watch for pricing opportunities when the market gives them.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
I hope you all had a safe and fun 4th of July! We are getting into the tail end of wheat harvest here in the Kenton region, with yields averaging in the 70-80 bpa area. Thankfully, we saw little to no VOM on almost every load, and the test weights looked great!
We started the week with a rally in commodities after it was reported that the extended forecast for the Midwest is hot and dry through the end of July. We have also started to see some Chinese soybean purchases roll in, providing support to the weather market. Corn and soybean crop ratings remain fairly steady week over week at 67% and 64% good/excellent, respectively.
We can start to see the volatility in the weather market showing up this week, as markets reacted negatively to forecasts of rain moving through the Midwest this weekend and chances late in the month. Due to this volatility, having targets in for new crop, old crop, or DP pricing is a great tool to capture short-lived rallies and help you price your bushels.
The July WASDE report was released today and brought no surprises. Corn and wheat reports came in as expected, but wheat is the driver to end this week. Old-crop wheat stocks were down 15 MBU since June, with new-crop carryout down 22 MBU due to lower total production. These results are keeping wheat numbers posted well above where they started at the beginning of the day today.
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Markets have staged quite a recovery this week, with corn looking to close up 15¢ and soybeans up 50¢ from last Friday’s close.
The rally appears to be driven by a combination of factors. USDA released the July WASDE report today at noon, but it offered few surprises. Old-crop corn ending stocks were reduced by 125 million bushels, while soybean ending stocks were lowered by 10 million bushels compared to June. The market showed little immediate reaction, suggesting the report itself wasn’t the primary driver. Instead, weather has taken center stage. While much of the Corn Belt crop remains in good condition, forecasts call for hot and dry weather over the next two weeks across many of the country’s largest production areas. Add in renewed fund buying as weather concerns increase, along with elevated tensions in the Middle East supporting the broader commodity complex, and you’ve got the ingredients for this week’s rally.
Wheat has been the standout performer today after reports that the Kerch Strait has been closed through the weekend due to ongoing hostilities in the region.
With markets rebounding, this may be a good opportunity to move remaining old-crop grain or price another portion of the 2026 crop. Let’s take advantage of the opportunities this rally has created.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon. Grain markets are in the green right now as I write my commentary this morning. As of this morning, we have not yet seen USDA’s Carryout for this year and next, but the July report typically does not have many surprises. We are seeing the wheat market rallying here today. We are up 25¢ right now. It’s very early on this story, and there’s not a lot of info out there right now, but the wheat market is rallying because of concerns with the Russia-Ukraine war. Early reports say the Sea of Azov, including the Kerch Strait, is closed to commodity movement right now. Ukraine has reportedly had some success in restricting ship flow through there, and there have been 35 ships hit by unmanned drones.
As far as weather goes, there have also been forecasts showing heat and dry weather set to move into the heart of the corn belt, which has pushed funds to buy back into the market after they sold off so hard over the last few weeks. Today, the crops’ good-to-excellent ratings are slightly behind where they were at this time last year, but not to the point that we are in rationing mode. It feels like the funds don’t want to be caught too short at this point, with some time left for a weather situation to develop. Have a great weekend.
Vice President, Grain Division
It was a busy week in the grain markets, with weather and world news driving most of the moves. Corn and soybean markets started the week stronger as traders watched crop weather closely. Some areas are getting too much rain, while others are staying too dry. Next week’s forecast is important because hotter weather is expected to return just as a large portion of the corn crop enters pollination.
Soybeans also got support from new Chinese purchases, including both old-crop and new-crop bushels. That helped November soybean futures move back near the $12 level, but the market was not able to break through it. Wheat stayed firm late in the week amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. A shipping halt in the Sea of Azov is getting attention because a significant share of Russian wheat exports normally transit that area.
The USDA report did not bring any major surprises, so the market will likely go back to watching weather forecasts, crop ratings, and world events. For now, this is a good reminder to stay in touch with your grain buyer and watch for pricing opportunities when the market gives them.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
I hope you all had a safe and fun 4th of July! We are getting into the tail end of wheat harvest here in the Kenton region, with yields averaging in the 70-80 bpa area. Thankfully, we saw little to no VOM on almost every load, and the test weights looked great!
We started the week with a rally in commodities after it was reported that the extended forecast for the Midwest is hot and dry through the end of July. We have also started to see some Chinese soybean purchases roll in, providing support to the weather market. Corn and soybean crop ratings remain fairly steady week over week at 67% and 64% good/excellent, respectively.
We can start to see the volatility in the weather market showing up this week, as markets reacted negatively to forecasts of rain moving through the Midwest this weekend and chances late in the month. Due to this volatility, having targets in for new crop, old crop, or DP pricing is a great tool to capture short-lived rallies and help you price your bushels.
The July WASDE report was released today and brought no surprises. Corn and wheat reports came in as expected, but wheat is the driver to end this week. Old-crop wheat stocks were down 15 MBU since June, with new-crop carryout down 22 MBU due to lower total production. These results are keeping wheat numbers posted well above where they started at the beginning of the day today.
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Markets have staged quite a recovery this week, with corn looking to close up 15¢ and soybeans up 50¢ from last Friday’s close.
The rally appears to be driven by a combination of factors. USDA released the July WASDE report today at noon, but it offered few surprises. Old-crop corn ending stocks were reduced by 125 million bushels, while soybean ending stocks were lowered by 10 million bushels compared to June. The market showed little immediate reaction, suggesting the report itself wasn’t the primary driver. Instead, weather has taken center stage. While much of the Corn Belt crop remains in good condition, forecasts call for hot and dry weather over the next two weeks across many of the country’s largest production areas. Add in renewed fund buying as weather concerns increase, along with elevated tensions in the Middle East supporting the broader commodity complex, and you’ve got the ingredients for this week’s rally.
Wheat has been the standout performer today after reports that the Kerch Strait has been closed through the weekend due to ongoing hostilities in the region.
With markets rebounding, this may be a good opportunity to move remaining old-crop grain or price another portion of the 2026 crop. Let’s take advantage of the opportunities this rally has created.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon. Grain markets are in the green right now as I write my commentary this morning. As of this morning, we have not yet seen USDA’s Carryout for this year and next, but the July report typically does not have many surprises. We are seeing the wheat market rallying here today. We are up 25¢ right now. It’s very early on this story, and there’s not a lot of info out there right now, but the wheat market is rallying because of concerns with the Russia-Ukraine war. Early reports say the Sea of Azov, including the Kerch Strait, is closed to commodity movement right now. Ukraine has reportedly had some success in restricting ship flow through there, and there have been 35 ships hit by unmanned drones.
As far as weather goes, there have also been forecasts showing heat and dry weather set to move into the heart of the corn belt, which has pushed funds to buy back into the market after they sold off so hard over the last few weeks. Today, the crops’ good-to-excellent ratings are slightly behind where they were at this time last year, but not to the point that we are in rationing mode. It feels like the funds don’t want to be caught too short at this point, with some time left for a weather situation to develop. Have a great weekend.