Weekly Crop Commentary - 07/11/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. We got the wheat harvest in the books over the last week. Quality was borderline between milling and feed qualities, so it will be challenging to work through. The markets this week once again were on the defensive. The culmination of improving crop conditions, big Brazilian crops, weather, and continued fund-selling seems to be the reason. Corn basis in Ohio continues to be strong, with the processing markets making it hard for corn to leave the state. Bean basis is also heating up as processors look for August coverage. The July crop production report came out a bit ago, and they have the national corn yield at 181.0 and soybean yield at 52.5. No significant adjustments were made to any of the data, and this seemed to spark yet another bearish tone as the week wraps up.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Good afternoon and Happy Friday! Markets are navigating a wave of political and trade news this week. Overnight, President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting August 1st, though it remains unclear whether USMCA-covered products will be excluded. Earlier this week, Trump also imposed a 25% tariff on both Japan and South Korea—set to begin August 1st—which raises concern, as Japan is currently the #2 buyer of U.S. corn exports and South Korea ranks #4. On the legislative front, Congress passed the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) on Thursday, July 3rd, though the full implications for agriculture are still being unpacked.

In the livestock sector, another confirmed case of New World Screwworm in Mexico on July 8th led to the postponement of the phased reopening of the southern border for cattle imports from Mexico into the U.S. Combine that with the 50% tariff proposed on Brazil—which accounted for 21% of U.S. beef imports in 2024—and tightening domestic production, and we could be looking at further pressure on U.S. beef availability. 

As for the WASDE report today, it offered minimal support. While carryout numbers were trimmed, there wasn’t enough bullish news to spark a rally. CZ25 continues to notch new lows and remains in oversold territory, while SX25 made fresh three-month lows yesterday. Locally, the wheat harvest is nearly complete following a busy holiday weekend. Aside from some low TWs and isolated VOM concerns, overall yields and quality have been okay. Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

It seems like the agricultural commodities are not being talked about with these tariff deals, and the markets reflected it early this week. There have not been any firm trade deals made that would benefit the agricultural sector, but time may bring some. Until then, the market is moving based on weather and growing conditions, which are showing to be very favorable to yield a large crop across the country with minimal threats to that estimate.

We wrapped up the wheat harvest this week. Thank you to everyone who worked hard in the field over the holiday weekend to make this happen! As we look forward to the fall harvest, the July WASDE report came out this afternoon and showed yield estimates to be at 181 bu/acre for corn and 52.5 bu/acre for beans. The report did not reveal any surprises, and the markets did not really react to it.

Crop ratings this week showed corn at 74% good/excellent and beans at 66% good/excellent.

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

The market had a rough week. Worldwide, there are numerous trade talks currently taking place, and a trade deal was struck with Vietnam. There are continuous talks taking place with China and Canada. Hopefully, an agreement can be reached that will stabilize the markets across the board. Corn harvest is underway in Brazil, and yields are coming in higher than what was expected.

Locally, the corn and bean crop looks decent, but we could use some rain in areas. Here in Region 2, the wheat harvest has wrapped up. From what farmers have said, they were pleased with how it yielded. The average test weight for region 2 was 57.2, and the average VOM for the region was 1.5.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We’re flying through summer, and fair season is officially here!

Markets came out of the extended break on Monday, and it wasn’t pretty. As the week went on, we looked for a rebound, but it never came.

Corn, despite some poor-looking fields locally, is shaping up to be a great crop. Current yield projections remain at 181 according to the USDA, but the condition of the crop remains excellent. Add that to an already large carryout, potential tariffs implications from Trump, and the market saw little chance to recover. With most Corn Belt states receiving adequate moisture and more on the way, there’s not much fuel for the bulls right now.

Soybeans followed a similar path to corn. National yields are above average, and conditions remain good. As always, August weather will be key in determining final yield. With a big crop out of Brazil and China still largely absent from the export sheet, bean prices have continued to trend lower.

As summer rolls on, it's easy to lose track of time, but don’t forget we still have a crop to sell, and the market won’t wait for decisions to be made. Have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Wheat harvest has come and gone in a flash! We had a successful harvest weekend in the area, with many reporting average yields. Test weights were lower than typical, but other grade factors were of average quality. Vomitoxin was present, but most bushels fell below discountable levels.

With wheat behind us, hopefully, double-crop beans are planted and spraying is taken care of, it’s time to be putting in offers for your new crop corn and soybeans. With great growing weather throughout the Midwest forecasted for the remainder of July, chances for weather market rallies are diminishing quickly. If the market spikes on any kind of surprise headline, it may be a smart idea to grab $4 corn for fall delivery if we were to get back there. Utilizing target offers is a free service we provide, and the offer is working anytime the market is trading. Have a great weekend and hope to talk with you soon!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

Happy Friday!

On Monday, the crop progress report showed strong crop conditions. Nationally, corn was rated at 74% good-to-excellent, one of the highest ratings for early July. Ohio is lagging a little behind on the good-to-excellent rated corn, falling 4% from last week, putting us at 57% currently. Nationally, soybeans held steady at a 66% good-to-excellent rating for the third consecutive week. Ohio soybeans rated good-to-excellent, also down about 5% from last week, putting us at a 54% rating, which is 8% below the 5-year average.

Last week ended with a little bit of a rally ahead of the holiday weekend, but markets opened much lower on Monday. Losses continued slightly throughout the week. This morning, markets were lower ahead of the noon WASDE report, and slipped further after the release of the report.

Moving forward, it looks like we can expect rather favorable weather conditions.