Weekly Crop Commentary - 07/17/2026
Jul 17, 2026
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
The market is still mostly watching summer weather. Corn is moving through pollination in a lot of areas, so heat and timely rains will matter. Soybeans are also watching the weather, but August is usually the bigger yield month for beans.
Ohio crop conditions still look fairly solid overall, helped by recent rains. That said, the market can change quickly this time of year if forecasts turn hotter or drier.
Corn has some support from weather risk and tighter USDA numbers, but rallies may still run into selling pressure. If you have old-crop bushels left or want to get some new-crop coverage on, it may be worth having target orders in place instead of trying to pick the exact top.
Soybeans could still see a weather premium, especially as we get closer to August. Beans can move fast, so if the market gives you a profitable number, consider scaling into sales a little at a time.
Wheat has had the strongest tone lately because of tighter supply talk and overseas shipping concerns. Just remember, wheat rallies can be sharp but also short-lived, so don’t ignore a good cash opportunity if it fits your plan.
Keep an eye on weather, basis, and your breakevens. This is a good time to reward rallies in small pieces and reduce risk where it makes sense.
Give us a call if you want to look at targets, basis, or different ways to price remaining old-crop or new-crop bushels.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Grain markets found support this week as geopolitical concerns once again moved to the forefront. Wheat led markets higher all week as traders added a weather and war risk premium to the market due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region.
Weather across the Corn Belt remains mostly favorable. Much of the Midwest continues to experience warm temperatures with timely rainfall, supporting strong corn and soybean development during this critical part of the growing season. Here in Ohio, I’m sure we all have noticed hazy skies this week as smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifted across the region, leading to reduced visibility and poorer air quality. Fortunately, the smoke has had little impact on crop development, and rain expected tomorrow should provide another welcome boost for corn and soybean growth as crops continue moving through key reproductive stages.
Looking ahead, traders will continue monitoring geopolitical developments overseas while also keeping a close eye on Midwest weather forecasts. As long as weather remains generally favorable, crop conditions could limit upside potential, but any additional disruptions to Black Sea exports or escalation in global conflicts could continue to inject volatility into the grain markets.
Cheryl Crawford
Grain Merchandiser, Delaware (Region 1)
I’d like to take a moment to introduce myself as your new Grain Merchandiser for Region 1. My name is Cheryl Hamman Crawford, and I’m excited for the opportunity to work with you.
A little about me: I live in the Waldo area and have two children. My son, Tyler, is 24, and my daughter, Taylor, is 21. I grew up in New Washington, Ohio, graduated from Buckeye Central High School, and earned two associate degrees from The Ohio State University Agricultural Technical Institute. I’m also continuing my education by pursuing a bachelor’s degree in Agricultural Business.
I’ve been with Heritage Cooperative for nearly four years, most recently serving as the Grain Contract Specialist in our Delaware office. In that role, I’ve worked with rail and container shipments, invoicing, payments, and many other aspects of the grain business.
I understand that every farming operation is different, and there’s no one-size-fits-all approach to grain marketing. My goal is to get to know you, understand your operation, and be someone you can count on for honest communication, dependable service, and marketing solutions that fit your needs. Whether you're pricing grain, making marketing decisions, or have questions, I'm here to help.
I’m looking forward to meeting you, visiting your farms, and building lasting relationships. Please don’t hesitate to call, text, or stop by if there’s anything I can do for you. I’m excited to get to know you and earn your trust.
I look forward to working with you!
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Escalating political tensions were the main theme in the grain markets this week. Corn futures were unable to build on last week’s rally, stalling near the 200-day moving average, but they have managed to hold onto those gains, which is an encouraging sign. November soybeans also paused after last week’s strength, settling into a trading range between $11.90 and $12.00.
Rumors of additional Chinese grain purchases circulated throughout the week, but nothing was officially confirmed, leaving the markets searching for direction. On paper, the balance sheet still points to ample supplies. However, strong export demand, record crush numbers, and managed money's continued interest in commodities amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty have helped support prices despite burdensome carryout projections and a favorable-looking new crop.
Wheat was the clear leader this week, with futures rallying more than 40¢ at the time of writing. The primary driver was Russia intensifying strikes on Ukraine's grain export infrastructure, including direct attacks on grain vessels, effectively disrupting Ukraine's ability to export grain through its Black Sea ports. While Ukraine will likely find alternative export routes, as it did in 2022, those channels are unlikely to match the efficiency of seaborne shipments. For new crop, July 2027 cash bids above $6.50 offer an excellent opportunity to begin next year's wheat marketing plan.
Have a great weekend!
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
We saw another positive week in the grain market. Corn and soybeans were choppy, but we are ahead of last Friday’s close by a nickel and dime, respectively. Wheat continues its climb and is over a dollar higher since the June 30th WASDE report, reaching two-year highs. If you intend to plant wheat this fall, I’d like to draw your attention to the July 2027 levels. Our cash bid for next harvest is above 6.60, or alternatively you could consider an HTA and lock in WN27 futures above 7.10. If your pricing goals are higher, we’d happily watch an offer for you. We can also discuss hybrid contracts such as a Flex Floor or Price Plus for any crop.
The market continues to watch Corn Belt weather models, crop condition ratings, Chinese buying, European drought, and export capabilities in the Black Sea region. This morning we did see flash sale announcements totaling almost 26 million bushels of soybeans to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Corn condition ratings nationally are 68% G/E, two points better than average, but 6 points below last year at this time. In Ohio, corn is 64% G/E, the same as our average and 8 points above last year. Soybeans are faring about the same in comparison to averages and last year. Nationally, soybeans are 65% G/E, and Ohio is 63% G/E. Have a great weekend and be careful in the smoke, heat, and potential storms!
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
Happy Friday! It’s a bit hazy out today as the smoke from the Canadian wildfires has settled into the area. We also experienced another hot and dry week, which has been beneficial to those trying to get hay baled. While warmer weather has been beneficial to fieldwork, the markets continue to keep an eye on any widespread weather concerns this summer.
Early in the week, President Trump announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Corn and beans were up slightly following this news. Additionally, Wheat was the standout commodity this week. Ongoing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea region raise concerns about their wheat exports. As a result, wheat futures rallied on Wednesday, with the September contract gaining around 30¢ on the day. July 2027 wheat futures also pushed through the $7 level and are trading around $7.10 as I write.
Weather still remains a factor moving forward. Continued widespread dry conditions could begin to have a bigger impact on the markets, but as of now, the concern is not to that extent. Keep in mind, it is important to take advantage of a rally, even if it is short-term.
Vice President, Grain Division
The market is still mostly watching summer weather. Corn is moving through pollination in a lot of areas, so heat and timely rains will matter. Soybeans are also watching the weather, but August is usually the bigger yield month for beans.
Ohio crop conditions still look fairly solid overall, helped by recent rains. That said, the market can change quickly this time of year if forecasts turn hotter or drier.
Corn has some support from weather risk and tighter USDA numbers, but rallies may still run into selling pressure. If you have old-crop bushels left or want to get some new-crop coverage on, it may be worth having target orders in place instead of trying to pick the exact top.
Soybeans could still see a weather premium, especially as we get closer to August. Beans can move fast, so if the market gives you a profitable number, consider scaling into sales a little at a time.
Wheat has had the strongest tone lately because of tighter supply talk and overseas shipping concerns. Just remember, wheat rallies can be sharp but also short-lived, so don’t ignore a good cash opportunity if it fits your plan.
Keep an eye on weather, basis, and your breakevens. This is a good time to reward rallies in small pieces and reduce risk where it makes sense.
Give us a call if you want to look at targets, basis, or different ways to price remaining old-crop or new-crop bushels.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Grain markets found support this week as geopolitical concerns once again moved to the forefront. Wheat led markets higher all week as traders added a weather and war risk premium to the market due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region.
Weather across the Corn Belt remains mostly favorable. Much of the Midwest continues to experience warm temperatures with timely rainfall, supporting strong corn and soybean development during this critical part of the growing season. Here in Ohio, I’m sure we all have noticed hazy skies this week as smoke from the Canadian wildfires drifted across the region, leading to reduced visibility and poorer air quality. Fortunately, the smoke has had little impact on crop development, and rain expected tomorrow should provide another welcome boost for corn and soybean growth as crops continue moving through key reproductive stages.
Looking ahead, traders will continue monitoring geopolitical developments overseas while also keeping a close eye on Midwest weather forecasts. As long as weather remains generally favorable, crop conditions could limit upside potential, but any additional disruptions to Black Sea exports or escalation in global conflicts could continue to inject volatility into the grain markets.
Cheryl Crawford
Grain Merchandiser, Delaware (Region 1)
I’d like to take a moment to introduce myself as your new Grain Merchandiser for Region 1. My name is Cheryl Hamman Crawford, and I’m excited for the opportunity to work with you.
A little about me: I live in the Waldo area and have two children. My son, Tyler, is 24, and my daughter, Taylor, is 21. I grew up in New Washington, Ohio, graduated from Buckeye Central High School, and earned two associate degrees from The Ohio State University Agricultural Technical Institute. I’m also continuing my education by pursuing a bachelor’s degree in Agricultural Business.
I’ve been with Heritage Cooperative for nearly four years, most recently serving as the Grain Contract Specialist in our Delaware office. In that role, I’ve worked with rail and container shipments, invoicing, payments, and many other aspects of the grain business.
I understand that every farming operation is different, and there’s no one-size-fits-all approach to grain marketing. My goal is to get to know you, understand your operation, and be someone you can count on for honest communication, dependable service, and marketing solutions that fit your needs. Whether you're pricing grain, making marketing decisions, or have questions, I'm here to help.
I’m looking forward to meeting you, visiting your farms, and building lasting relationships. Please don’t hesitate to call, text, or stop by if there’s anything I can do for you. I’m excited to get to know you and earn your trust.
I look forward to working with you!
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Escalating political tensions were the main theme in the grain markets this week. Corn futures were unable to build on last week’s rally, stalling near the 200-day moving average, but they have managed to hold onto those gains, which is an encouraging sign. November soybeans also paused after last week’s strength, settling into a trading range between $11.90 and $12.00.
Rumors of additional Chinese grain purchases circulated throughout the week, but nothing was officially confirmed, leaving the markets searching for direction. On paper, the balance sheet still points to ample supplies. However, strong export demand, record crush numbers, and managed money's continued interest in commodities amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty have helped support prices despite burdensome carryout projections and a favorable-looking new crop.
Wheat was the clear leader this week, with futures rallying more than 40¢ at the time of writing. The primary driver was Russia intensifying strikes on Ukraine's grain export infrastructure, including direct attacks on grain vessels, effectively disrupting Ukraine's ability to export grain through its Black Sea ports. While Ukraine will likely find alternative export routes, as it did in 2022, those channels are unlikely to match the efficiency of seaborne shipments. For new crop, July 2027 cash bids above $6.50 offer an excellent opportunity to begin next year's wheat marketing plan.
Have a great weekend!
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
We saw another positive week in the grain market. Corn and soybeans were choppy, but we are ahead of last Friday’s close by a nickel and dime, respectively. Wheat continues its climb and is over a dollar higher since the June 30th WASDE report, reaching two-year highs. If you intend to plant wheat this fall, I’d like to draw your attention to the July 2027 levels. Our cash bid for next harvest is above 6.60, or alternatively you could consider an HTA and lock in WN27 futures above 7.10. If your pricing goals are higher, we’d happily watch an offer for you. We can also discuss hybrid contracts such as a Flex Floor or Price Plus for any crop.
The market continues to watch Corn Belt weather models, crop condition ratings, Chinese buying, European drought, and export capabilities in the Black Sea region. This morning we did see flash sale announcements totaling almost 26 million bushels of soybeans to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Corn condition ratings nationally are 68% G/E, two points better than average, but 6 points below last year at this time. In Ohio, corn is 64% G/E, the same as our average and 8 points above last year. Soybeans are faring about the same in comparison to averages and last year. Nationally, soybeans are 65% G/E, and Ohio is 63% G/E. Have a great weekend and be careful in the smoke, heat, and potential storms!
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
Happy Friday! It’s a bit hazy out today as the smoke from the Canadian wildfires has settled into the area. We also experienced another hot and dry week, which has been beneficial to those trying to get hay baled. While warmer weather has been beneficial to fieldwork, the markets continue to keep an eye on any widespread weather concerns this summer.
Early in the week, President Trump announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Corn and beans were up slightly following this news. Additionally, Wheat was the standout commodity this week. Ongoing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea region raise concerns about their wheat exports. As a result, wheat futures rallied on Wednesday, with the September contract gaining around 30¢ on the day. July 2027 wheat futures also pushed through the $7 level and are trading around $7.10 as I write.
Weather still remains a factor moving forward. Continued widespread dry conditions could begin to have a bigger impact on the markets, but as of now, the concern is not to that extent. Keep in mind, it is important to take advantage of a rally, even if it is short-term.