Weekly Crop Commentary - 08/14/2026
Aug 14, 2026
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Overall, this week in the markets helped us to regain some of the losses from the past few weeks. While we are not at new highs, it’s important to notice the recovery we have made. We are back to the harvest-price level we were at a month ago. We have recovered the loss made over the last month. A few factors have contributed to this recovery. The wars in the Middle East and Black Sea areas have ramped back up. Primarily, the war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has attacked a Russian port that moves a large majority of its wheat out. This has been noted as Ukraine’s biggest success in the war so far.
We have seen a total of 5-6 inches of rain this week in the Kenton area, with some strong storms to accompany that. This should be very helpful to filling out and finishing off beans. A lot of yards and fields were flooded this morning on my way into work. While we have been getting strong precipitation, the western half of the Corn Belt has reportedly missed out on all of it.
The USDA reported on Wednesday on fall yield projections. Corn came in at 180.7 bpa and beans came in at 82.7 bpa. Both are below the estimate. The report also showed an increase of 1.4 million acres in corn and bean acreage. While bean yields fell, the acreage increase offset the decline enough that the bean market was less excited about the report. However, corn yield decreased and planted acres rose, but corn export demand also increased by 75 million bushels, giving corn enough of a push to rally and sustain the move.
Keep an eye on weather in the western corn belt, crop conditions in the eastern corn belt from flooding and heavy winds, and the Black Sea situation and how it's affecting wheat prices and exports.
Have a great weekend!
Cheryl Crawford
Grain Merchandiser, Delaware (Region 1)
Good Afternoon! What a crazy week of weather it has been.
The 2026 Field Leader Crop Tour finished yesterday. This crop tour covered roughly 40 counties across Ohio in 4 days.
For corn, the tour found a wide range of conditions throughout Ohio.
In northern Ohio, the conditions ranged from Fair to excellent. Some estimates they reported ranged from 263 bpa to 225 bpa. Wyandot County was the highest at 263 bpa. But around Crawford and Morrow County, estimates were only 151 bpa to 144 bpa. They saw significant stress, flooding, deer damage, and disease.
Central Ohio, conditions were average. Corn estimates were 194.5 bpa to 210 bpa. Some fields showed strong potential, but there were diseases, lower populations, and tip-back affected several locations.
Southern Ohio had very strong yield potential. Corn estimates were 248 bpa to 223 bpa. The strongest fields generally had good populations, strong ears, and good kernel depth.
For beans, the tour found generally good to excellent yield potential; yield potential varied considerably based on planting date, pod counts, canopy development, and remaining weather.
Northern Ohio has very strong potential with an estimated 58-60+ bpa.
Southern Ohio showed strong potential with an estimate of 50-60+ bpa.
Some of the June-planted soybeans still have good potential of around 40-50+ bpa.
Overall, the Ohio crop is looking promising, but with considerable variability from county to county. Disease pressure is present but mostly manageable. August and September weather, especially moisture and the length of the growing season, will ultimately determine how much yield potential there is. It will be an interesting harvest season!
Don’t forget to contact your merchandiser to get pricing on the books for harvest!
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Another eventful week in the grain markets, highlighted by USDA cutting projected corn yield by 2.3 bushels. Most industry expectations were for little to no change, making the reduction a surprise. However, USDA pulled the age-old trick of finding more acres to offset the yield decline, with record projected combined corn and soybean acreage of 183.5 million.
Where did all those acres come from? Over the past couple of years, heavy government support for agriculture has helped encourage increased acreage, particularly in corn and soybeans. Despite the acreage increase, the market reacted strongly to the lower corn yield estimate and higher new-crop corn exports. Together, these factors pushed projected stocks-to-use down to 10.12%, the tightest level we’ve seen since the 2022/23 crop year. Do we still have plenty of corn? Yes, but the balance sheet has tightened slightly, bringing renewed interest and support to the market.
Soybeans have also rallied modestly, which I largely view as following the strength in corn and wheat. Soybean yield was reduced slightly, but strong biofuel demand both domestically and globally, along with China’s soybean buying program, provides plenty of demand-focused support. The soybean balance sheet could tighten further if we see additional yield reductions in future reports.
Locally, storms have battered Champaign County throughout the week. So far, crop damage appears minimal, but standing water in fields could become a concern. Crops should be far enough along to make it through, but the question is whether excessive moisture will reduce some of the top-end yield potential. Corn appears to be progressing well, with many projections calling for 200+ bushel yields, while optimism remains high that soybeans can reach 60+ bushels.
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Happy Friday! Corn busted out of its trading range on Wednesday after the WASDE report came out with a smaller new crop carryout than anticipated. Soybeans tagged along higher after the report, despite more bearish data. Today, both Dec corn and Nov bean futures are heading for a third straight close above their 100-day moving averages. Wheat has climbed from its recent lows on logistical concerns out of the Black Sea region.
If you’re still sitting on old crop, whether in the bin or on delayed price, I’d be looking to at least set basis on it. As we move closer to harvest, basis historically fades to meet the new crop levels. If your bushels are still on the farm, I encourage you to move them soon so grain can keep moving through the pipeline as we prepare for the harvest influx. From what I hear, yields could be better than average, so space will be an important factor for a successful harvest, which will be here before we know it!
How much rain have you received? I’m hearing anywhere from 3- 6” in the Marysville and Richwood customer area over the last week. Some isolated areas may have even more. We always hope for August rains, but how much is too much?! Have a great weekend, and we’ll talk to you next week.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
It’s been a rainy week across Ohio, with some areas also dealing with significant storm damage. While August rain can certainly benefit crops, I’m sure many are looking forward to a drier week ahead after the amount of rain we received this week.
From a market standpoint, things were relatively quiet across the board early in the week. U.S. corn conditions held steady from last week, while soybean conditions fell by one point.
Wednesday’s WASDE report was one of the few things that sparked a big reaction in the market this week. USDA lowered its U.S. corn yield estimate by 2.3 bushels per acre from July, while the soybean yield estimate was reduced by 0.3 bushels per acre. U.S. 2025/26 corn carryout was also slightly below the trade estimate. The lower corn yield estimate provided some support, with corn closing 20¢ higher on Wednesday.
Today, wheat has gained close to 20¢, with July 2027 futures above the $7.10 mark. This gain comes following news that Russia’s biggest port was struck by a drone from Ukraine and has halted grain shipments.
As we get closer to harvest, there will be plenty of attention on what the crops will produce and how the weather moving forward will affect them.
Have a great weekend!
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Overall, this week in the markets helped us to regain some of the losses from the past few weeks. While we are not at new highs, it’s important to notice the recovery we have made. We are back to the harvest-price level we were at a month ago. We have recovered the loss made over the last month. A few factors have contributed to this recovery. The wars in the Middle East and Black Sea areas have ramped back up. Primarily, the war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has attacked a Russian port that moves a large majority of its wheat out. This has been noted as Ukraine’s biggest success in the war so far.
We have seen a total of 5-6 inches of rain this week in the Kenton area, with some strong storms to accompany that. This should be very helpful to filling out and finishing off beans. A lot of yards and fields were flooded this morning on my way into work. While we have been getting strong precipitation, the western half of the Corn Belt has reportedly missed out on all of it.
The USDA reported on Wednesday on fall yield projections. Corn came in at 180.7 bpa and beans came in at 82.7 bpa. Both are below the estimate. The report also showed an increase of 1.4 million acres in corn and bean acreage. While bean yields fell, the acreage increase offset the decline enough that the bean market was less excited about the report. However, corn yield decreased and planted acres rose, but corn export demand also increased by 75 million bushels, giving corn enough of a push to rally and sustain the move.
Keep an eye on weather in the western corn belt, crop conditions in the eastern corn belt from flooding and heavy winds, and the Black Sea situation and how it's affecting wheat prices and exports.
Have a great weekend!
Cheryl Crawford
Grain Merchandiser, Delaware (Region 1)
Good Afternoon! What a crazy week of weather it has been.
The 2026 Field Leader Crop Tour finished yesterday. This crop tour covered roughly 40 counties across Ohio in 4 days.
For corn, the tour found a wide range of conditions throughout Ohio.
In northern Ohio, the conditions ranged from Fair to excellent. Some estimates they reported ranged from 263 bpa to 225 bpa. Wyandot County was the highest at 263 bpa. But around Crawford and Morrow County, estimates were only 151 bpa to 144 bpa. They saw significant stress, flooding, deer damage, and disease.
Central Ohio, conditions were average. Corn estimates were 194.5 bpa to 210 bpa. Some fields showed strong potential, but there were diseases, lower populations, and tip-back affected several locations.
Southern Ohio had very strong yield potential. Corn estimates were 248 bpa to 223 bpa. The strongest fields generally had good populations, strong ears, and good kernel depth.
For beans, the tour found generally good to excellent yield potential; yield potential varied considerably based on planting date, pod counts, canopy development, and remaining weather.
Northern Ohio has very strong potential with an estimated 58-60+ bpa.
Southern Ohio showed strong potential with an estimate of 50-60+ bpa.
Some of the June-planted soybeans still have good potential of around 40-50+ bpa.
Overall, the Ohio crop is looking promising, but with considerable variability from county to county. Disease pressure is present but mostly manageable. August and September weather, especially moisture and the length of the growing season, will ultimately determine how much yield potential there is. It will be an interesting harvest season!
Don’t forget to contact your merchandiser to get pricing on the books for harvest!
Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Another eventful week in the grain markets, highlighted by USDA cutting projected corn yield by 2.3 bushels. Most industry expectations were for little to no change, making the reduction a surprise. However, USDA pulled the age-old trick of finding more acres to offset the yield decline, with record projected combined corn and soybean acreage of 183.5 million.
Where did all those acres come from? Over the past couple of years, heavy government support for agriculture has helped encourage increased acreage, particularly in corn and soybeans. Despite the acreage increase, the market reacted strongly to the lower corn yield estimate and higher new-crop corn exports. Together, these factors pushed projected stocks-to-use down to 10.12%, the tightest level we’ve seen since the 2022/23 crop year. Do we still have plenty of corn? Yes, but the balance sheet has tightened slightly, bringing renewed interest and support to the market.
Soybeans have also rallied modestly, which I largely view as following the strength in corn and wheat. Soybean yield was reduced slightly, but strong biofuel demand both domestically and globally, along with China’s soybean buying program, provides plenty of demand-focused support. The soybean balance sheet could tighten further if we see additional yield reductions in future reports.
Locally, storms have battered Champaign County throughout the week. So far, crop damage appears minimal, but standing water in fields could become a concern. Crops should be far enough along to make it through, but the question is whether excessive moisture will reduce some of the top-end yield potential. Corn appears to be progressing well, with many projections calling for 200+ bushel yields, while optimism remains high that soybeans can reach 60+ bushels.
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Happy Friday! Corn busted out of its trading range on Wednesday after the WASDE report came out with a smaller new crop carryout than anticipated. Soybeans tagged along higher after the report, despite more bearish data. Today, both Dec corn and Nov bean futures are heading for a third straight close above their 100-day moving averages. Wheat has climbed from its recent lows on logistical concerns out of the Black Sea region.
If you’re still sitting on old crop, whether in the bin or on delayed price, I’d be looking to at least set basis on it. As we move closer to harvest, basis historically fades to meet the new crop levels. If your bushels are still on the farm, I encourage you to move them soon so grain can keep moving through the pipeline as we prepare for the harvest influx. From what I hear, yields could be better than average, so space will be an important factor for a successful harvest, which will be here before we know it!
How much rain have you received? I’m hearing anywhere from 3- 6” in the Marysville and Richwood customer area over the last week. Some isolated areas may have even more. We always hope for August rains, but how much is too much?! Have a great weekend, and we’ll talk to you next week.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
It’s been a rainy week across Ohio, with some areas also dealing with significant storm damage. While August rain can certainly benefit crops, I’m sure many are looking forward to a drier week ahead after the amount of rain we received this week.
From a market standpoint, things were relatively quiet across the board early in the week. U.S. corn conditions held steady from last week, while soybean conditions fell by one point.
Wednesday’s WASDE report was one of the few things that sparked a big reaction in the market this week. USDA lowered its U.S. corn yield estimate by 2.3 bushels per acre from July, while the soybean yield estimate was reduced by 0.3 bushels per acre. U.S. 2025/26 corn carryout was also slightly below the trade estimate. The lower corn yield estimate provided some support, with corn closing 20¢ higher on Wednesday.
Today, wheat has gained close to 20¢, with July 2027 futures above the $7.10 mark. This gain comes following news that Russia’s biggest port was struck by a drone from Ukraine and has halted grain shipments.
As we get closer to harvest, there will be plenty of attention on what the crops will produce and how the weather moving forward will affect them.
Have a great weekend!