Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/14/2022

Oct 14, 2022

Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing

The USDA released its monthly WASDE report this week. They dropped corn yields just a bit from 172.5 to 171.8 and dropped bean yields from 50.6 to 49.8. Thus, in turn dropped projected ending stocks of both grains. Corn-ending stocks are projected at 1.17 billion bushels and soybean-ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels. With these numbers we should see the markets remain supported. We are still seeing weakness in the cash markets due to continued rough conditions on the Mississippi River. It doesn’t look like much if any improvement will take place over the next couple of weeks. The one question I have had most of the summer is on the corn yield estimates. On the weekly progress reports, we have trailed last year in the good-to-excellent category by at least 10 percentage points, but they are still predicting a bigger corn yield for Ohio. I know we have not harvested much corn, but no one I have talked with is saying they have bigger numbers than last year. Time will tell, but I find it hard to believe the corn is better than last year’s crop. As producers are getting into some of the later maturity beans, they are talking a bit of yield drag compared to the early maturity. The fantastic weather over the last week did not only allow a lot of harvest progress, but also a lot of wheat planting progress. Driving around it sure looks like there is a lot of wheat planted, and with prices near that $9 mark, why not?? Please keep this in mind that $9 wheat will attract a lot of attention. Let’s not get too caught up in headlines and miss some good opportunities on pricing.  Have a safe and prosperous weekend.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Beans were rolling in this week and boy they were dry. Moistures that were in the nines came back up to the twelves after tiny showers Wednesday evening and Thursday. It sounds like there could be a slight chance for rain and even snow Monday and Tuesday, but we should have another good week for harvesting.

The markets continue to be choppy even after the USDA report on Wednesday, surprising us with a lower-than-expected bean yield and production number. Analysts are saying Brazil will have a record soybean crop, but South America weather suggests the risk for drought to spread from Argentina is increasing.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

We’ve made it to mid-October already – can you believe it?! Wednesday night’s storms slowed things down a little, but the rainfall totals were spotty throughout the area as I heard reports from 0.2” to 2.0”. Before the rain, we reached the halfway mark of our expected harvest bushels for soybeans. Corn is starting to roll in more steadily now with moistures from the field ranging from 16-22%. As I mentioned last week, we are seeing a few corn growers with elevated levels of vomitoxin. It is a mycotoxin that can develop in certain growing conditions and is not visually detectable. Mycotoxins cannot be fed to livestock or humans above certain levels, so we appreciate your patience when we run those tests.
The market has been mixed this week, but soybeans have been supported by Wednesday’s WASDE report. USDA has the U.S. bean yield pegged at 49.8 bushels per acre, which was below the average trade estimate. This would put production at 4.313 billion bushels, 68 million less than the trade expected. Corn yield was about as expected (171.9 bpa) with production at 13.895 billion bushels, 10 million more than expected. Nearby corn futures are up about a dime on the week and soybeans are up twenty cents. July wheat hit a 3-month high on Monday but has since struggled to hold those gains. If you planted wheat and missed the $9 bid we had earlier this week, be sure to place a target offer with us so you don’t miss it again if we get back there. Have a great weekend and please continue to be safe!

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