Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/17/2025

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Another week has gone by with little progress on the government shutdown, and limited new developments on the China trade front. President Trump mentioned this morning that he does intend to meet with President Xi in two weeks at the summit in South Korea — but until then, we’ll likely be waiting for the next Truth Social post for any new updates. Earlier this week, new port fees went into effect for Chinese and American-made ships entering each other’s ports. We’re already seeing an impact, as at least two container lines have rerouted ships to South Korea to avoid the steep fees. It is believed that cargoes to and from China will be transshipped via vessels exempt from these fees, which will undoubtedly slow logistics and drive up costs in the long term.

On the grain side, SX25 soybeans have recovered about 13¢ this week, supported by strong crush numbers that boosted both meal and oil. If this momentum continues, we could test the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, potentially adding another 5–10¢ of upside here in the short term. Deferred delivery months after the first of the year are also showing strength, with $10+ cash levels presenting some attractive contracting opportunities. Now might also be a good time to consider exploring a flex floor contract, which sets a price floor with unlimited upside and gives you the flexibility to set basis later. CZ25 corn has also finished the week strong, pushing through its 100-day moving average and meeting resistance near the $4.25 level.

If you’re looking for marketing opportunities on your unpriced bushels, reach out to your local merchandiser — we’d be happy to walk through target offers or alternative contract options tailored to your operation. As you finish up bean harvest, please remember to notify your local branch if you’d like to defer grain payments until January 2026. Rain chances are in the forecast this weekend, so we hope everyone gets a chance to catch their breath and recharge. Remember — harvest is a marathon, not a sprint!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

We are in the midst of harvest here at Kenton, with beans starting to slow down and corn starting to pick up. We will see the corn harvest really ramp up next week. Soybean yields are all over the board, but due to the absence of rain in August, yields are lower than expected. We saw a range of yields from 40-60 bpa. Some outliers saw yields in the 30s, and some in the 70s. Our average would come down to 50-55 bpa on bean yields.

We have not heard any reports on corn yields in the area yet, but it may be too early to have an accurate idea. The corn, however, is coming in and looking great. We are seeing moisture out of the field from 13.5% - 22%. We do not see any Vomitoxin either, which is great. One of the only beneficial aspects of not getting rain in August is the lack of Vomitoxin.

Markets are trying to stay afloat, but with the government shut down, we are not getting any official reports on yield or crop progress. I believe bean yields are lower than estimated, and there is some talk that corn might be as well, but it will still likely yield a big corn crop.

The markets are ending this week mostly in the green – corn is up due to doubts about yields reaching the estimates. Beans are ending the week up due to the NOPA soybean crush showing higher than estimated crush numbers. The estimates were at 186.3 million bushels, and results came in at 197.9 million bushels. This increase in domestic demand gave soybeans some hope to end the week.

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

With the dry weather, harvest is moving right along. Bean harvest is 95% complete in region 2, with mostly double crops left. The averages have been relatively good considering the rain shut off in August. From what I am hearing, beans have been anywhere from 50-65 bu/acre on average, with an average test weight of 56.6, and an average moisture of 10.8. Corn harvest is just beginning to pick up. I haven’t heard any specific yield averages, just that corn is really good. For the corn that has come in, the test weight average is 56.3, the average moisture is 17.7, and Vomitoxin has been non-existent.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operations Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

We are already halfway through October. The temperature is finally starting to drop, and my wife and I are in the "when do we turn the furnace on" battle. So far, I am winning, but I think I am edging closer to a loss.

We are in the second week of the government shutdown. The major issue for the production agriculture industry is that we lack access to export sales numbers, making it difficult to determine if buyers are entering the market. The basis for soybeans on the river has improved, so there must be demand somewhere. We do see sales being made to Mexico for corn, indicating some demand. Considering all that is going on, prices have held up. We will have to see what we end up with and how demand looks.

I would like to bring attention to the topic of corn and soybean prices next fall. We are over 4 and 10. If, and it is always if, South America has a good crop and we don’t have issues here next year, these could be numbers that you may wish you had sold. I am not suggesting you need to sell your entire crop for next year, but putting some sales on the market may help establish a floor in pricing.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We’ve ended the week on a high note as futures have recovered over the past two days. Corn has been the real surprise this week. Not only have futures broken out of last week’s range, but we’ve also seen steady basis improvement across several key outlets. River bids have led the charge, and now hold the top spot for Ohio corn, which has had quite a turnaround after being the weakest all summer. Rail basis also strengthened throughout the week. The million-dollar question remains: is this new demand surfacing, or is someone simply covering a short position?

Local harvest reports continue to sound positive. Yields have been solid overall, with many fields topping 200 bushels. The late May and June-planted corn will tell the true story of how much the summer drought trimmed production.

Soybeans have also recovered some of last week’s losses following the new sanctions announcement. The odds of a trade deal coming together appear slimmer than ever. With no October WASDE, we won’t see any official carryout adjustments until November—assuming the government is back to work by then. Strong crush numbers have also helped support prices this week.

Have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! Since our last writing, we’ve seen 85-90% of the area’s soybeans harvested. Bean yields ranged from mid-30s to mid-70s in the Marysville draw area. We’ll see a higher average than last year – somewhere in the low to mid-50s. Corn harvest is still in the early stages. With a good bit going into on-farm storage first, so far, Marysville has received about one-fifth of our expected corn harvest bushels. From my conversations, most are happy with yields on April-planted corn. Late May-early June planted corn isn’t faring quite as well, but it is still doing satisfactorily.

As for the markets over the last couple of weeks, we’ve had some negative swings occasionally, but the cash bid today looks better than it did just two weeks ago. Since October 1, December corn futures are up 8¢, while November bean futures are up about 5¢ on the month. Combine that with local basis improvements (8¢ on corn, 13¢ on beans), cash corn is pushing $4 again at Marysville.

Without government reports due to the shutdown, the market is lacking details in export sales, supply and demand, and harvest progress. Traders are using private analyst data and media headlines for buying and selling. Social media could give a person whiplash on the possibilities of tariffs and deals with China. Trump and Xi are still expected to meet in a couple of weeks in South Korea, but no concrete agreements are expected.

As you’re putting grain in the bin, let’s look at goals for getting it priced. We can watch target offers or explore options on our alternative contracts. If you put wheat in the ground this fall, what are your pricing goals for next July? Give us a price and we’ll watch the market for you. Please continue to be safe out there and have a great weekend!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

It’s been a great week for harvest across the state, with just a few sprinkles and overcast mid-week. It looks like we could see some rain over the weekend, but with how dry it has been, I would say that’s not a bad thing.

We don’t have official harvest progress numbers due to the government shutdown. In our Nashport and New Philadelphia areas, we are in an in-between stage. Some farmers have a good bit of beans left, while others are preparing to or have already switched to corn. Additionally, some have switched to corn but plan to switch back to beans to give them a little more time.

Corn and beans are both higher than they were at the start of the week. Nothing extreme, but at this point, we will take any small win that we can get. Soybeans were driven higher mid-week by the release of soybean crush numbers. For those of you who store corn or beans, now is a good time to think about a plan for those bushels.

Looking ahead, it sounds like President Trump plans to meet with Chinese President Xi in a few weeks to discuss rare earth minerals and tariffs. We will have to wait and see if soybeans make it into that conversation as well.