Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/3/2023
Nov 03, 2023
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. We are in the gut slot of the harvest season. Typically, at this time we are on the downhill slide, but that sure isn’t the case this year. Still some beans out that will likely be picked on this weekend as the weather is supposed to be nice. Corn is going to be the real battle. Drying capacity is going to be a disadvantage to everyone. It’s not a surprise to anyone and if you are surprised, well then you didn‘t do your homework. We have talked several times in this platform at how far behind the crop has been. Corn yields have also been impressive starting out. In my area I don’t think it’s a record, but its not going to be far off. Beans on the other hand were a record, and with the bounce in prices this week we can almost generate more revenue per acre than corn. I don’t know if we have ever seen this situation before. The bean market bounced this week on weather concerns in Brazil, anticipation of Chinese demand coming back to the US, and strong crush margins. Corn continues to struggle fundamentally as the market is digesting a 2 billion bushel carryout. The next USDA supply–demand report is out next week, so we will see what adjustments they make. Have a great weekend.
Director of Grain Purchasing
Happy Friday and welcome to November! Hope everyone is having a safe and productive week of harvest. December Corn tested the low overnight from back on 9/19/23 and has made a pretty decent recovery today to finish almost unchanged on the week. As for beans, January futures pushed through the 100-moving average today and reached that psychological $13.50 mark, putting January cash beans north of $13.00 for the first time in a while. Aside from drier South American weather and global tensions in the Ukraine and Israel conflicts, the US dollar has really backed off today and typically that is a bullish indication toward commodities due to increasing export potential. Don’t forget to set your clocks back this weekend and go Bucks!
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
Growers with beans are back at it, but the moisture seems to be hanging right at 15% so far. Corn is coming in at 20-25% moisture and, also not drying very fast in the field. We look for a nice window for harvesting this weekend. Hopefully we can get most of the beans wrapped up before the next rain.
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
Happy Friday everyone! Corn is slowly picking up in our area, and beans are just about finished. From what I have heard yields have been above average for both commodities. Beans are anywhere between 60-70 for the most part and I am hearing a lot of corn above the 200 an acre level. Corn is coming in still above the 20% moisture level but has come down a couple of points in the last week.
Now is the time to start thinking about grain you need to move this winter or start to think about the crop for 2024. Bean prices have been up this week which might make it a great time to price some bushels. We have a ton of different options and pricing methods we can use to price bushels from the bin or for the 2024 crop. Anything from Flex Floors, Accumulators, Min Price, basis, HTA, or just Fixed Price contracts. Give your local merchandiser a call to see what options fit your operations. Have a great weekend!
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Corn harvest has hit full bore here at Marysville. Most are pleased with yields, with many averaging above 200 bushels per acre. As you know, moisture is the biggest headache we’re all experiencing. While some are lucky to have corn below 20% moisture, most of what we’re seeing is above that. With that, wet corn space becomes tight, so please have patience with us as the driers can only work so fast.
The market is ending the week in the green, with soybeans gaining the most. Soybeans delivered in January to Marysville are above $13. It may be time to take advantage of the rally and price some of those in the bin.
As a reminder, if you are using a Heritage app, make sure you are using the one with the green border around the outside edge of the icon. The all-yellow app is no longer supported. Many have noticed the bids are not updating on the old, all-yellow app. It would be best to delete the all-yellow icon app from your phones. Have a great weekend and talk to you soon!