Weekly Crop Commentary - 12/05/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. We are marching right into the holiday season, and this is typically one of the quieter seasons for the grain markets. Harvest is in the rear-view mirror, and for the most part, this year is no different. Most producers are busy booking seed, fertilizer, chemicals, and completing other end-of-year duties. I wouldn’t say producers aren’t looking at the markets, but this is the time of year when they seem most disengaged from them.

This has caught the attention of the cash market, and spot deliveries are at a premium. I would say this is rare, as we are coming off the biggest corn planting in over 100 years, and yield has come down a bit, but it is still a very good-sized crop. Demand, both foreign and domestic, is still very good, and the USDA will give us a new supply/demand report on Tuesday. We don’t want to lose sight of what the markets have done. Both corn and soybean prices have rallied sharply from the lows and should be rewarded for their efforts. Geopolitical events will still influence our markets, but in the end, fundamentals typically win out. We are still looking at a two-billion-plus bushel corn carryout and a 300-million-bushel bean carryout. Brazilian planting is on schedule, and the weather has been conducive so far.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Markets are limping into the end of the week with light holiday trade. Soybeans continue to drift toward the lower end of their recent range, sitting around $11.10 SF26 this afternoon after finding some support near $11.08. We slipped below the 20-day moving average earlier this week, and there’s still a gap lingering down in the $10.60–$10.70 area. Not sure when—or how quickly—we fill it, but it’s worth keeping on the radar as we work through these quieter holiday sessions over the next few weeks. Corn (CH26) remains range-bound, which is likely the theme heading into late December. We’re trading between the 20- and 200-day moving averages, and if those two levels begin to converge and eventually cross, that could give us a clearer signal on where the next trend wants to go.

We did see some supportive flash sales this morning: 100k MT of corn to Colombia, 392k MT of corn to Mexico, and 462k MT of beans to China. However, the soybean market didn’t seem to notice, as broader concerns continue to overshadow the positive sales, mainly the need for consistent flash business or at least stronger indications of Chinese demand. The delayed export sales report for the week of 10/30 was mostly in line with expectations: Mexico and Japan led corn, unknown destinations for beans, and Mexico/Indonesia for wheat. If you’re looking for a new headline to follow, political attention has circled back to the USMCA. President Trump has indicated renewed focus on the agreement, and early chatter suggests that leaders from Mexico and Canada may be heading to Washington to begin discussing next year’s scheduled renegotiation.

Looking ahead, the next USDA WASDE is on Tuesday. December isn’t typically dramatic. January is historically the bigger market mover, but this year could be an exception given the fall government shutdown and potential data adjustments. Trade is expecting slightly lower corn ending stocks on a continued strong export pace and slightly higher soybean ending stocks given the sluggish sales environment. Much of this likely isn’t a surprise to the market, but if you need to price DP before year-end or start looking ahead at taking some risk off the table for next fall, it’s a good time to have offers working and be ready to react if a window opens.

Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving and are staying warm as winter settles in. Definitely starting to feel like Christmas with these temperatures! Have a great weekend, and Go Bucks, to those tuning in tomorrow!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

I hope everyone had a happy and safe Thanksgiving. As we wind down the first week of December, I hope you are staying warm! If you have winter wheat planted, this snow should have given good, widespread cover to the winter wheat crop.

This week, the markets were fairly quiet, as they are seeing holiday action. As we look ahead, we will watch to see what the full extent of Chinese soybean purchases turns out to be and await further details on the final regulations for US biofuels from the EPA.

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Another week has come and gone. We are only 20 days away from Christmas and 26 days away from turning the calendar. Corn, beans, and wheat futures have been pretty choppy this week. Prices are being affected by broader concerns, such as the abundance of global supply and rising world grain inventories. The USDA reported multiple flash sales of corn yesterday, with 100,800 MT of corn going to Colombia and 392,500 MT of corn going to Mexico. This helped the corn market somewhat, but there is still a significant amount of oversupply. Corn export sales were down 11% this week, and bean export sales were down 14% for the week.

Something to watch out for is the official supply and demand report from the USDA. This report could shift expectations for yield estimates, which could influence the market, positively or negatively.

Hope you have a great weekend.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

It seems like winter is officially here! In my neck of the woods (Northeast Champaign County), we picked up roughly 5-6 inches of snow, and it looks like it may stick around for at least the next week or two.

March corn still can’t seem to hold above the 4.50 futures mark, with the 200-day moving average and that 4.50 level acting as strong resistance. Locally, corn basis continues to improve as end users look to cover needs heading into the new year.

January soybeans were fairly quiet this week as we settled into a temporary range around 11.20 futures. The next major resistance appears to be 11.40. While we’re off the highs of the year, 11.20 futures still translate to roughly $11.00 cash. It’s not Earth-shattering, but in my opinion, $11 remains a solid starting point and offers good downside protection for sales.

A developing story is that Trump is considering ending the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). National grower groups strongly oppose any removal of the deal, as Mexico accounts for about 40% of U.S. corn exports, and Canada is the largest buyer of our ethanol. So why unwind it? The short version: USMCA has been a major contributor to the current agricultural trade deficit, and renegotiating would give Trump leverage to push for tougher tariffs on Canada. It’s something to watch in the coming weeks. As one quote put it this morning, “One of Trump’s time-honored tactics is to threaten a wrecking ball.”

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. I hope all had a very nice Thanksgiving. The markets have been pretty much range-bound here as of late. We have the Dec USDA update coming next Tuesday, and usually we don’t see many changes. Corn has been hard to push past 4.50 on the CBOT March 26 futures. The Jan 26 report is one of the most important reports of the year, and that is where we could receive a surprise. So it feels like until we get to that, the markets probably won’t see much movement.

We are still waiting to see China sign a deal agreeing to take what we all have been hearing they will take. We heard it was supposed to happen this week, but once again, it did not. I still think it will be very hard to meet those expectations during this marketing year unless the South American crop has a problem. Please give us a call to discuss that in more detail. I will say again to all our farmers out there: be looking at the price of NC26 beans. Today is a great opportunity to at least start booking some of next year’s crop over the $10 mark.

I hope you all have a great weekend and stay warm. It looks like the whole month of December is going to be pretty cool. As some say, this might be like the winters of old. We will talk to you again next week.

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

It’s hard to believe, but Monday kicked off the month of December. The holidays seem to make this month fly by. Before we know it, it’s going to be the new year. It officially feels like winter with this week’s snowfall.

It was a relatively quiet week in the grain markets. Overall, beans are down for the week around 15¢, but not much movement otherwise.

Looking ahead, next week has the possibility of a little more movement. The December WASDE report is scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Additionally, the Trump Administration is expected to announce details on a bridge payment for farmers while a long-term aid package is still in the works. Both actions have the potential to add some direction to the markets as we move further into the month.