Weekly Crop Commentary - 12/19/2025

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Another quiet week in the grain markets as we near Christmas. There has not been much news to move prices in either direction. It favored being in the red but was overall unchanged this week, except for beans. Beans are down 20¢ from the beginning of the week due to a lack of positive news. China is moving slowly with soybean purchases, and the EPA update has been pushed to after the new year.

We will keep an eye on the wheat market. Although it has not yet had an impact, the Plains and parts of Europe are experiencing increased dryness, which could put pressure on the market.

Where the grain markets were quiet, the weather was all over the place this week. It felt like spring in the middle of the week with 50-degree weather, and now it’s freezing and snowing. Don’t you just love Ohio weather? Sadly, the snow does not look like it will stick around for Christmas.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

It has been almost two months since I last wrote a market commentary. I have been letting some of the younger grain merchants have their say. This is the final Friday before Christmas, and I cannot believe that 2025 is almost in the rearview mirror. We all have a lot to be grateful for if we view this year from the right perspective.

The markets have had an interesting year with all the turmoil around the world. I could spend the next hour typing and give you 20 reasons why the markets have done what they have, but I am going to try to keep it simple. I think it comes down to one thing: supply and demand.

If we look at the big picture over the last few years, we have not had a major weather issue in North or South America. We continue to see corn, soybean, and wheat supplies build each year. We have seen demand level off, as there has been no government intervention to boost demand for corn (ethanol). We have seen a reduction in livestock units in the U.S. and China, which means we need less meal. I have looked back at corn prices in the last 20 years, and when we have a 2-billion-bushel corn carryout, we see cash corn prices in the 3.90 to 4.60 range. I believe that is the range we will see in 2026. If we don’t reduce corn acres in 2026 and we see trendline yields, we could see carryout stocks rise close to 3 billion bushels. At that point, 4.00 corn would look like a home run. New crop values for 2026 are above 4.00 today. I am not saying you need to sell your entire 2026 crop, but anything above 4.00 could look like an excellent sale next fall.

Soybeans are not as clear-cut, but we know South America is having a good growing season, and their early soybeans will start hitting the market in 45 days. We expect record production in South America in 2026, exceeding 225 million metric tons. This does not bode well for a soybean price rally in 2026. We see continued domestic crush demand increase, which is good, but back to my earlier comments, who is going to consume the extra meal? I liked the 11.00 futures we saw a few weeks back, but the markets have set back 50¢ since then. We need to keep an eye on new crop values, as I am hearing more soybean acres are expected next year due to fertilizer costs. So again, look at the earlier comments: record South American crop and more acres in the U.S. do not call for higher grain prices going forward.

This is enough for the Friday before Christmas. I hope you and your families have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

Corn finished the week on a strong note, supported by continued strength in export demand. As of the November 30 reporting period, corn exports are running roughly 30% ahead of USDA expectations, helping to keep a solid floor under the market. Adding to the optimism are rumors of Chinese interest in U.S. corn out of the PNW, which if confirmed, could provide additional support heading into winter. While futures continue to struggle to break out, strong basis levels are pushing us to $4.50 cash corn.

Soybeans… yuck. The bean market continues to search for direction, with no clearly defined technical support levels in sight. While the U.S. balance sheet remains relatively tight, that story is overshadowed by a much more comfortable global supply picture, particularly out of South America. Until world fundamentals tighten or demand improves, beans may continue to slide.

Hope everyone has a great weekend and enjoys some quality time with family this Christmas.