Weekly Crop Commentary 3/13/2026
Mar 13, 2026
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. This was another big week for the grain markets. They continue to follow the energies as the conflict with Iran continues. The halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is causing ripples to be felt everywhere. Nonetheless, this has provided a much-needed boost to grain prices and a chance to lock in good prices before we get into the planting season. We are also seeing a good number of folks taking advantage of the bump in new crop pricing. The big movement in cash physical is causing the basis to begin to work its way backwards for the near term. Please remember that we will get our first look at the upcoming planting intentions at the end of the month, and we will also get quarterly grain stocks then. These should shed some light on what we could expect to see basis-wise as we work into the spring and summer. If you haven’t already put some new crop on the books, we are in the sign-up period for the average price contracts, and these are a good way to get some coverage on and take the emotion out.
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
Markets are mixed on this nice (but windy) Friday.
It’s been a little while since the last update, but markets have seen quite the turnaround. Between the $28 spike in oil to open Monday, fertilizer supply concerns, and general volatility, corn has rallied about 10¢ on the week and has now recovered 30+¢ from the January USDA report. For context, roughly a fifth of the world’s exported crude oil previously passed through the Strait prior to the war. That number is now essentially near zero. The pullback this morning can most likely be attributed to profit-taking. Exports remain around 4% ahead of pace and continue to look strong. December futures seem to have found a ceiling around the $4.95 level and haven’t been able to consistently hold above it. That still translates to roughly $4.50 cash for fall delivery, so if that’s an intriguing level for you, be sure to put offers in.
Soybeans — where to start. While down at the time of writing, we’ve continued to post gains for many of the same reasons mentioned above. One thing that may be getting overlooked is that Cargill has halted shipments of beans to China. This comes after Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry recently adopted stricter sanitary rules for exported soybeans at the request of the Chinese government. The new guidelines have created problems for some cargoes to be approved amid reports that they contained weed seeds and other materials not currently found in China. This has contributed to some of the strength we’ve seen over the past couple of days. Chinese crush returns also favor Brazil beans compared to other alternatives. Brazil soybeans are currently the only origin with positive crush margins — and by a wide margin — so don’t expect a surge of Chinese purchases elsewhere, as they are most likely using their leverage to push prices even lower.
Have a great weekend.
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
Happy Friday the 13th (again)! The market has kept us on our toes for the last two weeks. I’ve written a few hundred contracts just myself in that time. I’m very glad to see people taking advantage of this rally. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed in the supply and demand table for grain. We’re seeing the Iran conflict create volatility in all markets, led especially by crude oil. The million-dollar question is: how long will this last? Since no one knows the answer to that, my best advice is to stair-step your contracting along the way. Enter incremental target offers at profitable levels to take advantage of headline-driven spikes in the market, even if it happens at midnight. Customers using the portal (app) can enter offers themselves once we turn the feature on for you. Or you can always give us a call to put those offers in place. Have a great weekend!
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
What a week it has been for the grain markets! There was quite a bit of movement this week, following a strong finish from last week. Sunday night, crude oil traded as high as $120/barrel following news on the conflict in Iran. Crude pulled grains and oilseeds higher as well.
Much of the volatility this week has been tied to geopolitical news. The war involving Iran has been a major driver this week. At one point, access to the Strait of Hormuz was interrupted, causing a surge in crude oil prices.
Sunday night was a good reminder of how effective it is to have offers working. When the overnight markets surged, those with targets were able to capture those gains.
Tuesday, the USDA WASDE report was released at noon, with little market reaction. We saw several swings in the market as news emerged, especially amid conflicts in the East. As we close out the week, things have settled down quite a bit relative to the days prior.
Just a reminder: our average price program enrollment is now open! This is a low-cost option and a great way to get a baseline price for your fall contracts.
Have a great weekend!