Weekly Crop Commentary - 6/21/2024

Jun 21, 2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. We have reached the summer solstice and the start of summer. It sure has felt like summer all week long, and the weekend looks hot too. The potential for a shot of rain and some cooler temperatures on Sunday sure will be welcomed. Next week looks to heat back up again.

In last weeks crop progress report, we did see Ohio decrease in the good to excellent category by 7%. That was before this week's weather, so it will be interesting to see the score in next week’s report. It seems that the field chores are getting wrapped up for now, and farmers are back to hauling grain once again. This is allowing corn basis to stay rather weak for this time of the year. Livestock margins are very tight, and it feels like the poultry industry hasn’t recovered from the bird flu last fall.

Bean ratings for Ohio dropped 5% last week. We will likely see that happen again this week. Bean basis is starting to heat up with the export sales last week and crush margins at attractive levels once again. We will get the much-anticipated final planted acreage report and quarterly grain stocks next Friday. We are starting to see wheat showing up and so far it appears to be decent quality. There have been reports of vomitoxin in the southern part of the state. Hopefully, it stays out of our area. Stay safe during this heatwave and have a great weekend.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Area producers have had a nice couple of weeks to catch up with planting, replanting, side dressing, and hay making. We have had one load of wheat come in and a handful of samples, but all have been 17.5-20% moisture. I would have thought it would have dried faster in this heat, but it doesn’t seem to be doing so in this area. Most in the region say they will try some wheat on Monday. While writing, we did get a couple of dry loads.

The market doesn’t seem to be worried about the above-normal temperatures here in the eastern Corn Belt or the pockets of flooding in the northern Corn Belt. In the last two weeks, new corn has lost 10¢, and new beans have lost 35¢. The growing season is still in the early stage, but it looks like we have seen the highs. Have a good weekend.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

Welcome to Summer! Thursday was the first official day of summer and the weather felt like late July. It has been about two weeks since we have seen rain in my area and the corn is starting to show some stress in the afternoon. The forecast is showing above normal temps for the next 2 weeks but there is a chance of rain in the 10-day. We will have to wait and see.

I have received several calls and text messages asking why the markets are not rallying off of the dry weather. I remind everyone that you have to look at the big picture and there is flooding in Minnesota. Crop conditions last Monday were over 70% good to excellent, so it is hard to rally the markets when traders see that.

Unless we see a significant dry period, it will be hard to rally these markets much. This could be the first year in over 25 years that the December corn futures high on January 1 is going to be the high for the year. Again, we will have to wait and see. I think we need to be a seller if we see any kind of new crop corn rally from 4.70 - 4.80 December futures.

Soybeans are 75¢ off of the recent highs. Similar to corn, it is a struggle to get the market to move higher. The lack of exports and slowing domestic demand has carryout going up. If we see November futures anywhere close to 11.90 - 12.00, we need to look at getting some of your new crop soybeans sold.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Welcome to wheat harvest! The Marysville area got kicked off receiving wheat on Monday and our receipts have more than doubled every day since. Moistures today are ranging 12-17% with most under 14%. It sounds like most are happy with early yields, but maybe not the record-breaking numbers we saw last year. Vomitoxin is okay-to-borderline on fields that were sprayed, but it seems that fields that were not sprayed are seeing discountable levels. If you do not receive our texts, be sure to let your local branch know you’d like added to our distribution list for extended and weekend hours.

Next Friday, 6/28, is the USDA Acreage report. Market traders will be keeping an eye on that as well as the extended forecast for the corn belt. Any rallies in the market should be taken advantage of, especially for unpriced old crop. Have a good weekend, stay safe, and keep hydrated!

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