Weekly Crop Commentary - 6/24/2022
Jun 24, 2022
Vice President, Grain Division
Commodity prices are trying to improve today after a very rough week, as crop conditions have improved in the Midwest. The anticipated weather outlook is looking better than expected, with ample moisture and easing temperatures, this has turned funds to sellers.
The Western basis continues to be the hottest market as the East seems to have ample supplies to get us to new crop and is feeling the pressure this week. We will have a very important crop report this coming Thursday, June 30, as the USDA will update grain stocks and release final planted acres.
We look for wheat harvest to begin next week. Discount schedules and delayed price agreements are available online or at your local Heritage grain branch. Enjoy this beautiful weather, stay safe and have a great week.
Director of Grain Purchasing
Good afternoon. What a nice week of weather we had. Just a bit on the hot side for a day or two, but other than that, we can’t complain. We did some traveling this week, and I did not see anything better than the crops in our area. Many planters were rolling in the Findlay to Toledo area along interstate 75. Much of the corn is not very tall yet and shows signs of moisture and heat stress. It’s way too early to push the panic button, but I was surprised at how uneven things were to the north of our area. We look to be very blessed in our part of the state.
Basis this week started to slide a bit. There appeared to be a lot of corn moving as we approach first notice day for July corn. There is a discount rolling to September futures, causing another round of selling that the market needs to absorb. We could see the same thing going on in the bean market, as the July futures hold a premium over the deferred months. We are in the heart of our weather market, and things can change in the blink of an eye. We all need to stay vigilant in marketing old crop bushels, as there will continue to be opportunities offered.
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
What a dive the markets took this week. Beans and wheat have lost a dollar, while new crop corn lost around sixty cents. The more favorable weather forecast, wheat harvest pressure, and funds reducing their long positions have brought in the bears. Now would be a good time to double-check your fall contracted bushels and if you have any old crop bushels you are paying storage on, put orders in or price some of those bushels. Next week (June 30th) is a USDA report updating the 2022 acreage and quarterly grain stocks.
The weather looks mostly dry for the next seven days, with more general rains in the six- to ten-day forecast for the western half of the grain belt, but looking like the heat will stick with us for at least another two weeks. Wheat has changed rapidly, we have not received any samples, but I would say, by the end of next week, we will see a few guys try to run. Have a good weekend.
Grain Origination, Mechanicsburg (Region 3)
Here we are at the last Friday in June already! The grain markets are working today to recoup some of the steep declines we saw this week from a massive liquidation of positions. Favorable weather models are calling for cooler and higher-than-normal rainfall in the western and upper corn belt. As fast as weather models can change, so can the market. Locally, basis levels remain unchanged this week, but look for our nearby corn and bean basis levels to switch from July futures to a later futures month.
Next Thursday, June 30, at noon, the highly anticipated USDA Planted Acres and June 1 Quarterly Stocks report will be released. This report is often accompanied by elevated volatility from the abundance of information it provides. In about half of the last 14 years, December corn futures have seen limit moves in either direction depending on the data provided. November soybean futures have gained six of the past seven years. With the markets already on edge, hopefully we see some stabilization before then.We hand-thrashed a couple samples of wheat from fields around Mechanicsburg this week. Quality looked decent, though moisture was still in the 30s. I’m guessing we will see some delivered by this time next week. This week we published our wheat discount schedules and delayed price rates on our website. Keep in touch with your local branch so we can plan for extended and weekend harvest hours when needed. Have a great weekend!
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
It’s been a wild ride this week in the markets. As I write this, corn and beans are bouncing back a little. The nearby July corn contract is off .28 cents on the week, and the NC Dec corn contract is off .58 cents on the week. But soybeans have really taken the hit. July beans are off .84 cents, and Nov beans have fallen $1.07 in a week. The driver down has been a couple of things:
First, 6-10- & 8-15-day forecasts have taken some of the extreme heat out, and today we are seeing better precipitation chances for the heart of the belt. However, beans have seen some pressure from crude oil futures as well as edible oil futures pull back this week. We still have over two months to go before we have a good idea as to how the crop will look, so the market will continue to keep weather forecasts at the forefront.
As far as how things look here in NE Ohio, it all depends on where you are at, but most crops look fairly good. Some things are small, and we do need a shot of rain. In the next seven days, we only show Sunday for a chance of rain. We are basically all planted now, and depending on when wheat comes off, we will see some double-crop beans planted. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend!
Grain Merchandiser, Upper sandusky (Region 2)
Markets are trying to recover after a steep drop-off this week. Between improved longer-term forecasts, lack of major concern on crop conditions and progress, continued recession fears, and good progress being made on wheat harvest in the western plains, markets took a breather, finding some support today. Nov 22 soybeans appeared to have found support at $14.00 futures, as did Dec 22 corn at 6.50. Ukraine announced today that it’s withdrawing troops from Severodonetsk, a key eastern city, as Russia advances. The soy complex took a hit this week with lower soy oil, crude oil, and palm oil. We start to see seasonality trends this time of year, but there’s a lot of growing season left to see how mother nature decides to cooperate. Next Thursday is also the June Acreage and Stocks report, so we’ll wait in anticipation to see what they come out with for that.
The Upper Sandusky region will likely start seeing new crop wheat coming in next week. The hot temps the last couple weeks have really pushed this crop along. Please check out our website under the Grain Rates and Discounts tab for our 2022 wheat discount schedule, toxin testing policy, and delayed price & storage rates! If you are not on our Bushel App or signed up for our text message alerts, please let us know and we can get you added for updates on harvest hours. Wishing everyone a safe and successful wheat harvest!