Weekly Crop Commentary - 7-1-2022

Wes Bahan
Director of Grain Purchasing
Wheat harvest is in full swing in Marysville and everywhere else too. By the end of the day, I would put harvest at about 60% complete. Quality has been good, so that makes things go that much smoother. Even though the weather is perfect for wheat harvesting, most would trade harvesting wheat for an inch of rain. Corn and soybean basis rolled out of the July futures this week and weakened a bit in doing so.  Hope you all have a great holiday weekend.

Haylee VanScoy
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
Wheat harvest has been in full swing this week in the Upper Sandusky region. Quality is off to a good start, as we’ve been averaging around 58 TW, 14 MO, and <1 on VOM. If you would like to be added to our harvest hours text or Bushel app notifications, please let us know, and we can get you added. Weather permitting, we will likely have some weekend hours.

Corn and beans are in various growth stages throughout our region, but all could certainly use a drink this weekend. On Monday’s crop progress report, Ohio corn had dropped from 58% GD/EX last week to 49% this week. Beans were also rated at 49% GD/EX this week, previously 56%.

Month-end and quarter-end liquidation and non-threatening weather models here in the short term have led to a sharp downturn in the markets this week. In addition, export sales were little to be desired. Yesterday, we had the June 30^th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report, where higher quarterly stocks seemed to outweigh the neutral to bullish acreage numbers. It appears that 34% of beans and 48% of corn remain in on-farm stocks. Corn acreage increased to 89.9 mil acres vs. 89.5 in the March planting intentions report. Ohio contributed to that number with a 1.5% increase. Bean acreage was lower than expected, coming in at 88.3 vs. 91 mil acres in March, and Ohio contributed with their acres lowered by 3%. The largest decreases in bean acreage were in ND, OK, TX, and GA.

Enjoy the holiday weekend and be safe! Thank you to everyone who has fought and is still fighting for our freedom.

Lisa Warne
Grain Origination, Mechanicsburg (Region 3)
Welcome to July! We are in the thick of wheat harvest here at Mechanicsburg. I’m estimating we’re about 65% done here at midday Friday. Many started early in the week, planning to get soybeans planted before potential rainfall. I’ve heard varying average yields from upper-60s to 90s! I’d say most are averaging in the mid-70 bushel per acre range.

One thing is certain- the market has seen better days. The USDA reports did not give us any kind of sustainable bullish news, and the funds have been liquidating positions. The extended weather models look favorable for most of the Midwest, with above-normal rainfall expected in the coming weeks. Time will tell if the forecasts hold true, though. Have a safe and enjoyable Independence Day!

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)
It is July 1, and wheat harvest is already in full swing. If the weather cooperates, we will be done by Monday. Double crop beans are being planted, and they need a rain to get going.

The June 30 crop report did not send out any big surprises, but confirmed what the market expected. Soybean acres were a little below market estimation, but I do not think that was a big surprise, as the Dakotas had a wet spring.

We will now trade every rain and 6- to 10-day weather forecast over the next 60 days. We are dry here in Champaign County and need rain. I know some areas around the state are dryer than here.

The markets have set back from the early June highs as the risk-off approach to all markets is in full swing. It will take something at this point to test where we have been. What that is at this point, I cannot say, but it is summer, and anything can happen.