Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/5/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. I hope everyone had a lovely July 4th holiday. Earlier in the week, we did see the bulk of the wheat harvest here in west central Ohio get wrapped up. Yields, for the most part, were good, not quite like last year, but they were good. Quality was in good shape, but there were a couple of areas that were higher in vomitoxin. From the way the radar looked, almost everyone got another good drink of water the last couple of days. At my house, I tallied up 1.2”, and with corn tassels starting to appear, it came at a great time. We have another shot of rain coming here this afternoon and then things clear out until Tuesday of next week.

Temps are looking to be in the ’80s for the highs, so things look great for corn pollination. Sales of new crop commodities continue to be at six-year lows. So what will it take for us to attract buying? Everyone seems to be in a wait-and-see pattern to determine the size of the crop, but it's getting to the point where freight plans will need to be made. If that doesn’t happen and we see bumper crops, logistics will be very trying this harvest season.

It just feels that no one wants to own ag commodities with the funds holding a massive, short position and the end users holding a short position in the cash market. What will it take to turn the sentiment around? With wheat harvest wrapping up and other field chores coming to an end, we are starting to see producers engaging the market again, getting rid of more old crop bushels. All eyes will be on the weekly crop update on Monday afternoon to see what the USDA has to say. It feels like we should see more recovery in the good to excellent status as the weather has been friendlier this week. There will likely be more fireworks to come, so hope you didn’t get too much of them yesterday. Thanks and have a great weekend.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Area crops are enjoying this hot, humid weather; you can see big changes every morning. Wheat harvest is wrapping up; most have said it was almost as good as last year. Markets are green today because of the strong export sales, and user buying is also providing support for corn and beans. Weather will be the major market mover moving forward.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon. In this region, wheat harvest is essentially done, I’m seeing more corn fields tasseled every day, and we’re getting nice timely rains. Since last Friday’s writing, the Richwood and Marysville areas have received about an inch, while Derby is around 0.7” for the week. The US Drought Monitor had much of our area in a D0 (abnormally dry) or D1 (moderate drought) level as of 7/2, but I imagine that map will look a little better next week. Ohio corn condition rating is at 66% Good/Excellent (average is 57%), while soybeans are at 63% G/E (56% average). The US corn and soybean condition rating is at 67% for both, also better than average.

All that data is fairly bearish to the grain market, especially corn, given the extra acres planted. Despite that though, cash soybeans and wheat were able to climb about 3% higher this week (beans up about 36¢ and wheat up 18¢). Corn remained mostly flat. With the Ohio stocks report last week showing 22% more corn and 63% more soybeans still on-farm, compared to June 1st last year, I’m not feeling very bullish on getting back to levels many of you have an eye on. If you’ve still got unsold bushels on the farm, give us a call and let’s see what plans we can get put together for you. Have a great weekend!